12/02/2024 – Euro Window Update
The Apr Brent futures contract briefly broke through the $82/bbl handles around 15:30 GMT, eased off to $81.70/bbl and then retraced higher to $82/bbl territory again around 16:20 GMT. However, prices have once again come off slightly to $81.80/bbl as of 17:10 GMT (time of writing). WTI futures for the same tenor also strengthened over the afternoon, flirting with the $77/bbl handles at $76.60/bbl at 17:10 GMT.
Tensions continue in the Red Sea, where the Houthis have reportedly targeted an Iran-bound cargo ship which they claim was American, although, shipping trackers identify the cargo as Greek-owned. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister has stated that the kingdom’s plans to target a maximum sustained production capacity of 12mbpd by 2027 are a consequence of the energy transition. Iraq has affirmed its commitment to OPEC’s second round of voluntary cuts in December and will produce no more than 4mbpd. Finally, market participants will be on the watch for a slew of macroeconomic data this week including US inflation data due tomorrow and British inflation and Eurozone GDP data due on Wednesday. Finally, the front-month and six-month Brent futures spreads are $0.50/bbl and $2.60/bbl, respectively.
Asian Refinery Margins: Q2-24: $11.65/bbl, Cal24: $10.77/bbl
Europe Refinery Margins: Q2-24: $10.44/bbl, Cal24: $8.76/bbl
