- Brent crude prices up 5% on the week
- Market participants expecting additional cuts from other members on top of existing Saudi Arabia and Russia lollipop
- Meeting officially begins at 15:00 GMT
This live blog has now ended.
BRENT EXPIRY DAY: 13 and 26 trades of the Jan/Feb cash BFOE and EFP were recorded respectively. A major was exclusively on the sell side while a mix of trade houses were on the buy side. oott
— Onyx Insight (@Onyx__Edge) November 30, 2023
The final settlement price of January Brent futures is $82.84/bbl. It was one of the much more anticipated days in the oil market and it did not fail to deliver – voluntary oil production cuts were announced but the market was rather skeptical. The market will be digesting this news over the next few days as traders and analysts comb through their supply/demand models while participants look to reconcile their trading PnLs at the end of the year.
Our coverage of the Brent expiry day ends here, good night.
The OPEC+ ministerial meeting has ended. A whirlwind of a day that followed one of the most anticipated OPEC meetings. Production levels have been adjusted for Angola (1.1mbpd), Congo (277kbpd), and Nigeria (1.5mbpd).
Flat price saw an extremely bearish reaction, falling from nearly $84/bbl to lows of $80.04/bbl where it provided a floor (at time of writing).
Next meeting will be held on 1 June 2024.
The press release can be viewed here.
🎢What’s your favourite roller coaster? Potential energy has been changed into kinetic energy. oott pic.twitter.com/1eMAPdUHwD
— Onyx Insight (@Onyx__Edge) November 30, 2023
Feb Brent futures approaching $80/bbl very rapidly. Will this level provide a floor or will prices break through?
📉In 20 minutes, brent has fallen a dollar lower since 15:15 GMT. Perhaps traders are unconvinced, or taking a risk-off attitude whilst trying to digest the flurry of headlines, deciphering between fact and rumour.oott
— Onyx Insight (@Onyx__Edge) November 30, 2023
Brent crude gapping down amidst a flurry of headlines.
👂An agreement has been reached. 1mbpd of extra supply cuts, but what year is the baseline?
🤔For crude prices, will an official announcement lead to a case of ‘buy the rumour, sell the news?’ oott
— Onyx Insight (@Onyx__Edge) November 30, 2023
Lots of rumours and ‘sources’ and the meeting hasn’t even begun yet. People are glued to their Twitter feeds, F5’ing the OOTT hashtag.
🇸🇦 An apt analogy is that saudi Arabia is the person doing most of the work in the group project, but to really push the grades higher (beyond 80), the other members will need to chip in. oott
— Onyx Insight (@Onyx__Edge) November 30, 2023
Analogy.
✂️There is unanimous agreement that the existing opec cuts will be deepened, and crude prices have responded positively over the past day.
❓But the question is how deep will that be, and who else will be following suit? oott oil
— Onyx Insight (@Onyx__Edge) November 30, 2023
The speculation is surrounding the who and the how.
🛢️A huge day for Brent – expiry day for the January contract and the postponed opec decision. It is sure to be a long day ahead.
👉So far it seems like trade houses are on the buy side while majors are on the sell side. oott oil
— Onyx Insight (@Onyx__Edge) November 30, 2023
A busy day for crude traders, with the January Brent futures expiry being today, which involves five intra-day windows.
A much anticipated day for oil market participants and the wider commodities and finance community as OPEC+ holds its delayed meeting, which will confirm production targets going into 2024. It is widely expected that Saudi Arabia and Russia will extend their existing cuts, but the overarching question is if the other members will contribute their fair share, and by how much. Stay tuned as we post live updates from our X/Twitter feed.
