The front-month Brent futures contract strengthened this morning, climbing from below $65/bbl around 04:45 BST to $66.75/bbl at 06:35 BST. Prices have since softened to $66.45/bbl at the time of writing (07:20 BST), although this still marks the highest level the contract has seen since 7 Apr. This support was likely driven by newfound support at last week’s price lows alongside in-the-money shorts taking profit. Moreover, new drivers of strength include US President Donald Trump’s latest sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports – hinting that we may not see a quick resolution to the talks between Iran and the US on the former’s escalating nuclear program. In other news, Russia’s exports of Arctic oil to China are reportedly set to surge in April due to sellers offering wider discounts and shipping the oil on non-sanctioned tankers to counter sanctions placed by the US. Furthermore, OPEC stated on Wednesday that it had received updated plans for seven members to make further compensation output cuts. The latest plan involves these nations to cut output by a further 369kb/d in monthly increments between now and June 2026. In macro news, Japan’s exports climbed for the sixth consecutive month in March by 3.9% y/y, although they have slowed down from Feb’s 11.4% y/y. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jun/Jul’25 and Jun/Dec’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.86/bbl at $2.68/bbl, respectively.
