The May’25 Brent futures contract weakened from around $74.15/bbl at 1215 GMT down to an afternoon low of $73.25/bbl at 1625 GMT, retracing slightly to $73.50/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw a weekly gain but softened today, potentially as traders weigh up the impact of Trump’s tariffs scheduled for April 2. In the news today, the price of Russia’s ESPO crude blend has slumped to the lowest level since June 2024 as demand from Chinese state-owned firms has weakened, trading sources told Reuters. Cargoes of ESPO for April loadings are being traded at a discount ...

In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this fourth report, we take a look at the Q4'25 Brent/Dubai swaps contract. 

Front-month Brent futures really did go from hanging on to the $70/bbl handle for dear life to soaring up to $74/bbl all in the same month. Before we bid farewell to the big box of uncertainty that March has been for oil prices, April starts with America’s “liberation day”, i.e., what President Trump has labelled his big tariff distribution day. A 25% tax on cars and car parts appears on the menu, with Trump promising it would lead to “tremendous growth” for the US. The world isn’t too convinced due to the danger this poses to a fully blown trade ...

May’25 Brent futures initially saw weakness this afternoon, declining from $73.80/bbl around 1300 GMT down to $73.23/bbl shortly after 1340 GMT, however, recovered to $73.90/bbl by 1735 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, President Zelenskiy said Russian artillery had damaged Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the city of Kherson, just two days after the truce on energy strikes was announced. The Ukrainian leader stated after a summit in Paris, “we are waiting for America’s reaction, since they told us that they will respond to violations”, according to Reuters. In other news, CNOOC reported an 11.4% rise in net ...

The May’25 Brent futures contract traded sideways this afternoon, increasing from $73.60/bbl at 1230 GMT up to $74.15/bbl at 1550 GMT, before declining to $73.65/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have fluctuated as Russia and Ukraine have now accused one another of flouting the ceasefire on energy strikes reached on 25 Mar.

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

The May’25 Brent futures contract reversed this morning’s gains, falling from $73.55 around 1345 GMT down to $72.50/bbl at 1620 GMT, inching up to $72.85/bbl by 1755 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have seen a downward correction this afternoon amid news of a Russia-Ukraine truce at sea and potentially some small profit-taking on recent Brent strength.

The North Sea Dated Brent physical differential was implied quite stably mid-month as it crept down below 80c/bbl. It then dropped more severely to 46c/bbl on 20 Mar as the front and back of the Forties curve were offered by a major, although the middle was bid, with some offers coming in for back-end Midland. The diff was implied higher to 75c/bbl on 24 Mar as we saw a major bidding on the Forties curve up to $0.80/bbl with the back offered high by a refiner.