The Jul’25 Brent crude futures concluded bullishly last week, fuelled by positive developments in US trade talks and further sanctions on Iranian oil. As of Monday morning, prices have recouped previous losses and surpassed $65/bbl, a two-week high. This week, we expect the bullish momentum in crude oil to continue, with Brent closing between $66-69/bbl. The key factors influencing crude oil sentiment this week are the following: In a significant de-escalation of the trade war, the US and China have agreed to slash tariffs on each other for 90 days while discussions continue. This agreement comes after the high-level meetings ...

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The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices fall from $64.14/bbl at 13:32 BST down to $63.19/bbl at 15:14 BST. Prices have since slowly rallied to $63.70/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, Iran has agreed to resume indirect nuclear talks with the United States on Sunday, May 12 in Oman, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency. In other news, the UK will sanction up to 100 more tankers used to ship Russian oil. Despite earlier sanctions on 41 vessels, 39 still operate. Russia has evaded restrictions using non-G7-insured ships. BP shares rose 1.9% on Friday after ...

In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Q3'25 Gasoline EBOB Crack.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices continue rallying up to $62.90/bbl at 16:59 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US and UK have agreed on a deal to lower tariffs on some goods. Key points include: cars, steel, planes, and agricultural tariffs. Both sides will continue negotiations on broader trade topics, including pharmaceuticals and remaining tariffs. In other news, OPEC+’s oil output slightly declined in April by 30kb/d to 26.60 mb/d, despite planned production increases. The drop was mainly due to reduced exports from Venezuela and smaller cuts in Iraq and Libya. Iran, meanwhile, raised its output, ...

Prompt Brent futures dropped sub-$60/bbl this week after OPEC+ decided to increase oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411kb/d. There was no OPEC-mageddon, and the market absorbed the news pretty well, for the time being anyway. President Trump has been making huge, mysterious promises ahead of his trip to the Middle East next week. Trump is set to make Saudi Arabia his first stop on an international trip next week, saying bluntly he’s going for the money. Earlier in the year, he claimed the Saudis agreed to spend $1 trillion on US deals, ...

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices falling from $62.72/bbl at 12:56 BST down to $61.35/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, US crude oil inventories fell by 2mb in the week ending May 2, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), contrasting with the American Petroleum Institute’s report a day earlier of a 4.49mb build. Gasoline inventories rose by 200kb amid increased production, while distillate stocks declined by 1.1mb, with production also ticking up. Distillate inventories remain 13% below the five-year average. Overall, US petroleum demand rose, with total products supplied averaging 19.8mb/d over the ...