Data Vault Reports

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 31 Jan, we observed CTA buying flows tapering off as they reduced their length. Brent futures saw a 95% decline w/w in CTA net length to 775 lots. WTI futures saw a 110% decline in the same week to -1.9k lots, flipping into the negative handle for the first time since 3 Jan. ICE gasoil also dipped below 0 for the first time since 2 Jan, declining by 107% to -863 lots on 31 Jan. While heating oil saw a 40% decline w/w, net length remained above 0 on 31 Jan, at +12.7k lots. Finally, RBOB noted a 205% decline w/w to -10.9k lots.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 24 Jan, we observed CTA buying flows tapering off as they reduced their length. Net positioning peaked on 17 Jan at 125k lots before falling to 63k lots by 24 Jan. From a product basis, heating oil is currently the most bullish product at 20k lots, as its pace of decline was exceeded by both Brent and WTI. Meanwhile, US gasoline (RBOB) futures remains the weakest segment, as its net position fell below 0 down to -6k lots.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 17 Jan, CTA buying flows accelerated as net positioning rose from 22k lots to 125k lots, reaching the highest level since the peak of 9 April 2024. This highlights the bullish momentum of the futures market, where the influx of CTAs exacerbated the rally in flat price as they deployed length en masse for the first time in nearly a year. Brent and WTI futures are the most bullish products, with net positioning both at 33k. This is followed by Heating Oil and Gasoil, at 30k and 26k, respectively. US Gasoline (RBOB) is the weakest at 4.5k, and has been the most bearish product since early December.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 10 Jan, total CTA net positioning climbed into positive levels for the first time since July 2024, although RBOB futures continue to be net short (despite rising 21% w/w to -11k lots). Brent and WTI futures witnessed a 314% and 1694% rise w/w to 8.3k lots and 11k lots, respectively. The middle distillates complex has seen exemplary changes this week, with gasoil and heating oil noting their net CTA length climb 357% and 208% w/w to 3.7k lots and 10.4k lots, respectively- with the latter perhaps also seeing support from the significant drop in temperatures in Eastern and Southern USA.