Our latest energy derivatives stories across the World.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Q3’25 Gasoline EBOB Crack.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.
This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.
The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.
Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 Fuel Oil 380 East/West.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks in a timelier fashion relative to the official COT data. Over the past two weeks, net positions bottomed on 16 April at -145k lots, which was the lowest level since September 2024. Now, net positions are steadily increasing, rising to -93k lots by 28 April. RBOB is still the strongest underlying, at -3k lots, while Brent is the weakest, at -27k lots. Brent is quickly converging with WTI futures which is sitting at -26k lots.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this seventh edition, we take a look at the May’25 Sing 92 Crack swap.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks in a timelier fashion relative to the official COT data. In crude futures, Brent and WTI futures recorded a 180% and 227% decline w/w to -35k lots and -32k lots, respectively. Interestingly, net length had dropped to -37k lots and -34k lots in Brent and WTI, respectively, on 9 Apr, highlighting more support mid-week despite the overall w/w decline. In refined products, gasoil and heating oil futures fell by 138% and 116%, respectively this week to -33k lots and -23k lots. Finally, RBOB futures saw a 180% decline w/w from +3.7k lots on 7 Apr to -13.4k lots on 11 Apr.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this seventh edition, we take a look at the May’25 EBOB Crack swap.
In this sixth edition, we take a look at the May’25 Mont Belvieu TET propane (C3 LST) swap.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Markets felt good this morning but by lunchtime Brent flat price began to feel heavy near $64 and it fell back before regathering and
building up to reach the close at $63.58/bbl. Talking about falling back, just how far can the North Sea physical fall? It was so
strong at $1.13 just on 24 April but a deluge of Midland offerings in the North Sea window has tanked it to -48c yesterday, as little
to no buying interest has materialised to absorb those cargoes – though it rebounded slightly to -32.5c today. ‘The North Sea
market is very long,’ said an Asian buyer whose company is going into turnarounds. And the North Sea is long despite loads of
Midland cargoes going East. ‘Some of the Midland sales make no sense but the buyers want to show something to Mr Trump.
These purchases also affect Murban as buyers of Midland cut other competing grades. And don’t forget there’s a lot of Forties
floating about since Grangemouth closed, around 6 extra cargoes a month. No wonder Forties has set the Dated benchmark
recently… But today no sooner had the window opened than Gunvor, Aramco, BP and Unipec all charged in to offer Midland.
Aramco tried to tempt buyers with a 30 May-3 June Midland offered at Dated +$1.15 and offers for 2-6 June at $1.40 over Dated
and 4-8 June at Dated +$1.50. BP offered similarly, while Gunvor also offered an 11-15 June cargo at Dated +$1.45.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices fall from $64.14/bbl at 13:32 BST down to $63.19/bbl at 15:14 BST. Prices have since slowly rallied to $63.70/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, Iran has agreed to resume indirect nuclear talks with the United States on Sunday, May 12 in Oman, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency. In other news, the UK will sanction up to 100 more tankers used to ship Russian oil. Despite earlier sanctions on 41 vessels, 39 still operate. Russia has evaded restrictions using non-G7-insured ships. BP shares rose 1.9% on Friday after the Financial Times reported that several major energy firms have evaluated the potential for a takeover. Vitol is reportedly interested in parts of the business. BP shares remain down about 28% over the past year. Mexico’s state oil company Pemex is planning to reopen thousands of idled mature wells in an urgent attempt to reverse years of production decline, with 2024 output averaging just 1.58 mb/d well below the government’s 1.8 mb/d target. Pemex reported a Q1 production drop of 11.3% and a $2.12B net loss. Indonesia plans to reduce fuel imports from Singapore and buy more refined products from the US to negotiate lower tariffs. The country aims to source up to 60% of its fuel from the US. Indonesia also offered to buy an additional $10B of U.S. energy products as part of efforts to balance its trade surplus. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.46/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.15/bbl.
High Sulphur Fuel Oil contracts saw continued strength over the past two weeks. The Jun’25 3.5% barge crack saw a strong rally in April, peaking above -90c/bbl before consolidating around -$1.55/bbl by 09 May. Open interest is elevated, 7% above the 5-year average, with speculative buying seen during the rally, though trade houses sold into strength, holding a net short position of over -1.1mb vs. Onyx. The Jun’25 380 East/West also surged from $12/mt to $25/mt—the highest since February—driven by strong Eastern spread buying and improving positioning, though trade houses continued to sell. Visco weakened, falling from $14.25/mt to $11/mt, as 380 strength outpaced 180, and majors/trade houses increased short exposure, especially in Q3’25.
‘I am bullish,’ said a large Asian trader. He noted most OPEC producers are already and have been at near max and the market has been absorbing the over quota oil. Another trader was also cautiously bullish looking at $65 if not higher. We are also thinking that the tariff negotiations between China and the US are a sign of price strength as the market oversold last week. As a new Pope entered the Vatican, the Brent bulls are back in town.
The Jul’25 Brent futures opened just below $63/bbl overnight Friday before gradually rising to $63.25/bbl by 07:30 BST (time of writing). Markets have been fairly bullish this week from optimism for easing trade tensions between China and the US, as prices also rebounded from YTD lows. In the news, amid intensified sanctions pressure, The U.S. Treasury sanctioned China’s Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group, a teapot refinery in Hebei Province, along with port operators, shipping firms, and vessel captains tied to Iran’s shadow fleet. Marathon Petroleum reported flaring at its 365kb/d Carson, California refinery due to a process upset, releasing over 500 pounds of sulfur dioxide, per a regulatory filing. ConocoPhillips cut its 2025 spending forecast by 3.5% to $12.45 billion amid crude prices falling below $60, though it maintained its production outlook. Pemex plans to reopen thousands of closed wells to counter falling oil output, but faces technical and financial hurdles amid budget constraints and aging fields. Finally, the front (Jul/Aug) and 6-month (Jul/Jan) Brent futures spreads are at $0.40 and $0.94/bbl respectively.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices continue rallying up to $62.90/bbl at 16:59 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US and UK have agreed on a deal to lower tariffs on some goods. Key points include: cars,
Prompt Brent futures dropped sub-$60/bbl this week after OPEC+ decided to increase oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411kb/d. There was no OPEC-mageddon, and the market absorbed the news pretty well, for the
This is a huge deal, folks! A source told The Officials the deal for Shell to acquire BP is progressing and will happen… BP hasn’t had long to reset itself but it’s not going particularly well, if the Q1 financials are to be believed, so it’s a sitting duck for the takeover. Things don’t seem to be plain sailing for Chevron either, as we’ve heard it could cut 20% of its staff! It’s brutal out there, people, take care…
The market doesn’t know which way to go. The post-OPEC meeting dump to $59 was offset by relieved anxieties about a Saudi-led price war with the release of their June OSPs, but that rally has run out of steam and Brent flat price fell to $61.43/bbl by this morning’s close. As Brent waxes and wanes, the front spread has been ebbing and flowing too. After the heavy roll down on expiry, the July/August spread has fallen back to 32c as of this morning, a far cry from the June/July spread’s $1+ level heading into its expiration.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract fell off this morning to $61.17/bbl at 07:34 BST. Prices then rallied to $61.96/bbl at 11:32 BST (time of writing). In the news, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow for talks with President Vladimir Putin and to attend Russia’s WWII victory parade, despite Ukrainian drone strikes on the city ahead of his visit. Xi’s trip signals strong China-Russia ties amid tensions with the West, as both countries push for a “multipolar world” and resist US influence. Talks will cover energy cooperation and the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, though no deal is expected during the visit. In other news, ADNOC Drilling posted a 24% rise in Q1 profit to $341 million, driven by a 134% surge in oilfield services revenue. Total revenue grew 33% to $1.17B. The company affirmed its 2025 guidance of $1.35–1.45B in profit and $4.6–4.8B in revenue. It approved a $217 million quarterly dividend and plans $1B in 2025 spending. Canadian Natural Resources reported Q1 earnings that exceeded expectations, driven by increased oil and gas production and stronger commodity prices. Production rose to 1.58 mb/d, up from 1.33mb/d last year, aided by its recent $6.5B acquisition of assets in the Athabasca oil sands and Duvernay shale. Despite cutting its annual capital spending, Canadian Natural said the reduction would not affect operations or production targets, which remain between 1.51 and 1.55 mboe/d for 2025. Finaly, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.34/bbl and $0.63/bbl respectively.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices falling from $62.72/bbl at 12:56 BST down to $61.35/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, US crude oil inventories fell by 2mb in the week ending May 2, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), contrasting with the American Petroleum Institute’s report a day earlier of a 4.49mb build. Gasoline inventories rose by 200kb amid increased production, while distillate stocks declined by 1.1mb, with production also ticking up. Distillate inventories remain 13% below the five-year average. Overall, US petroleum demand rose, with total products supplied averaging 19.8mb/d over the past four weeks. In other news, Colombia’s state oil company Ecopetrol plans to reduce costs and expenses by approximately $232 million and indicated it may scale back its 2025 investment plan by around $500 million. Ecopetrol had reported a 22% drop in Q1 profits, citing global economic concerns and U.S. tariff threats. Despite the headwinds, its share price saw a slight uptick on Wednesday. Norway is set to expand its oil and gas production through a new licensing round in frontier areas. The government maintains that further exploration is necessary to sustain output amid declining reserves. Earlier this year, it awarded stakes in 53 new licenses despite environmental opposition. The industry plans to invest a record $24.7B in 2025, exceeding prior expectations due to both inflation and increased drilling activity. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.34/bbl and $0.52/bbl respectively.
No Gulf is safe! Trump just won’t put down his rubber and pencil and stop renaming these bodies of water. First, he proclaims the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America and now he announces he will switch from using the term Persian Gulf to use instead the Arabian Gulf. While Vance says it’s possible to find a deal to reintegrate Iran into the world economy, we expect this will get right up their nose! National pride is no small thing when it comes to international relations and diplomacy…
While most propane benchmarks strengthened into the end of April but softened into the new month, the June’25 C3 CP contract (Saudi Aramco propane) has shown more resilience. The Jun’25 tenor of the Middle Eastern propane benchmark climbed from $558/mt on 25 Apr to $571/mt on 1 May, where it remains at the time of writing on 7 May, despite briefly meeting resistance at this level. Saudi Aramco announced the May’25 C3 and C4 CP settlement prices at $610/mt and $590/mt, respectively, significantly above the contract’s market level. This further supported the C3 CP complex, with majors and trade houses buying over 1.1mb of the Jun’25 flat price from Onyx in the week ending 6 May.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $63.18/bbl at 09:19 BST before falling off to $62.33/bbl at 11:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, India launched military strikes on Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir. The attack follows a terrorist attack on Hindu tourists in Indian- administered Kashmir. Pakistan reported civilian casualties and claimed to have shot down five Indian jets. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is set to meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Switzerland. The talks aim to discuss economic and trade matters in the ongoing China-US tariff war. In other news, Norwegian oil firm Aker BP said it will increase its dividend by 5% annually as long as Brent crude stays above $40/bbl. The company reported Q1 EBITDA of $2.80B, matching expectations, and confirmed a 2025 dividend of $2.52 per share, up from $2.40 last year. ExxonMobil plans to invest $1.5B between mid-2025 and 2027 to revitalize production at Nigeria’s Usan deepwater oilfield in block OML 138. The project, which began producing in 2012, includes 34 wells tied to eight subsea manifolds. Italy’s Edison reported that its Q1 profits fell 39.5% to €360 million, despite a 36% rise in revenue to €5.54B. The company attributed the decline to a market correction after strong 2024 results and reduced gains from gas optimization. Edison said the performance met expectations. Finally the front month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 Brent spreads are at $0.42/bbl and $0.74/bbl respectively.
While the world’s eyes were on pressure points like Gaza, Ukraine and Taiwan, its attention has been grabbed by Pakistan and India. Both sides have given the impression they wanted to show a quick success or victory, without desire for an extended or protracted conflict. A major conflict between two nuclear powers (sadly the wrong kind of nuclear power) could be disastrous. Of course, India claimed to have hit militant sites, while Pakistan said the strikes killed 26 civilians and that the Indian missile attack was an “act of war.” Pakistan claimed to have shut down five Indian aircraft. Other sources said at least one French jet was shut down. Nerves are frayed and we hope the two sides can keep a lid on things before they escalate.
This week saw a significant reversal in Brent/Dubai, with the M1 contract sliding from 5 May’s high of $0.75/bbl to $0.12/bbl (at the time of writing on 6 May). This decline marked a shift from the rally building up ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on 3 May. Nevertheless, this support did not have substantial participation backing it up, with flows on screen primarily driving the price strength. However, price action suggests we may have seen short covering by players. Meanwhile, the OTC market was quieter, with majors short covering and trade houses becoming less active.
The M1 Brent futures saw an exceptionally bearish week with prices selling off by $5, before finding support at $59/bbl and recovering to $62/bbl by 6 May (time of writing). On the upside, prices may see initial resistance at $64.50/bbl, where prices saw resistance in the week of 7-11 April, aligning with the 20-day moving average and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from January highs and May lows. A break above could see the $68.70/bbl level come into play, aligning with the 23 April high, and early March lows. Beyond that, the $74/bbl level comes into play, matching the February support, early April highs, and the 200-day moving average. If prices fall further, the lower Bollinger band at $60.30/bbl may provide initial support, as well as the $60/bbl psychological support line. Longer-term support may come from $56.50/bbl, the resistance level of January 2021.
Trump doubled down on the false assertion that the US doesn’t need Canadian energy – except 5 mil b/d of heavy crude they would have to go and find elsewhere… We can’t wait to see dozens of US refineries run on the power of “friendship” alone! How many times can they cry wolf? Another day, another promise of incoming trade deals. This time, Bessent said trade deals may come as soon as this week… hang on, didn’t they say the same thing last week?
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $62.78/bbl at 17:17 BST before slightly coming off to $62.20/bbl at 18:20 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Arabia is considering shifting towards a market share strategy in a bid to punish OPEC+ members defying quotas, but weakening global demand could blunt its strategy. OPEC+ has already agreed to unwind nearly 1mb/d of cuts by June. While Riyadh can afford short-term losses, a prolonged slump could destabilize OPEC+ and threaten Saudi Arabia’s grip on oil markets. In other news, US shale producers in the Permian Basin are cutting spending and reducing rig counts amid a sharp decline in crude prices below $60/bbl. Diamondback Energy and Coterra Energy announced over $500 million in combined budget cuts this week, joining peers like EOG Resources and Matador Resources in scaling back operations. Nabors Industries projects a 4% drop in US shale rigs by year-end. This retreat comes as US oil futures have fallen 17% year-to-date, driven by escalating tariffs under President Trump and OPEC+’s surprise decision to accelerate production increases. Argentina expects to post an $8B energy trade surplus in 2025, up from $5.7B last year, driven by strong performance in its Vaca Muerta shale formation and new government policies, Deputy Energy Secretary Federico Valler said in Houston. Vista Energy echoed the bullish outlook, while YPF (Argentina’s state owned company) and partners like Shell and Chevron are ramping up infrastructure projects. Finally, the Jul/Aug front month spread is at $ 0.40/bbl and the Jul/Jan’26 6-month spread is at $ 0.62/bbl
The Dated market suffered from the broader sell-off in crude markets, with OPEC news having a larger impact than initially thought. Supply overhang fears have inverted the Brent futures forward curve, which is in contango from Oct’25 onwards. Nonetheless, front spreads remain resilient, given the perceived prompt strength, with spreads also selling off from a high baseline, hence still backwardated. Liquidity conditions have worsened amid the holiday period, with structure being implied lower. We think the spread sell-off is overdone, and there has been good support at the start of the week, with spreads rebounding after the initial gap lower on Monday’s open.
Our last report warned of turbulence ahead, and oil prices have indeed reflected this in the past month. Weakness emerged early in April and again in May, following OPEC+’s decision to return voluntary cut barrels to the market. Brent closed on 31 March at $74.74/bbl and resurfaced above $61/bbl at the time of writing.
In the week ending May 2nd 2025, Brent and WTI front month futures contracts experienced declines in exchange-traded volumes, each by almost 16%, partly due to long holidays in China. By contrast, the front month contracts for gasoil, heating oil and RBOB jumped; particularly, gasoil stood out with the largest increase by nearly 37%. Meanwhile, the growth in exchange-traded volumes was pronounced in August and September tenors for most of the contracts except for WTI with modest declines.
Mercy from the Saudis! They hiked OSPs to Asia across grades by 20c/bbl – less than the monthly change in the Dubai structure would have implied. The Dubai physical premium averaged $1.645 in May trading, up 26c from the average during April trading, thus implying an OSP increase of around 25c. Given this context, the 20c hike looks rather kind! They need space in the market to place the extra 167 kb/d of Saudi supply coming in June!
The Jul’25 Brent Futures contract saw prices rally to $62.00/bbl at 10:54 BST before falling off to $ 61.57/bbl at 11:50 BST (time of writing). In the news, President Trump said both Russia and Ukraine want to settle the war,
The Jul’25 Brent crude futures opened below $60/bbl overnight Monday, marking a $2 gap from Friday evening’s close. Prices steadily retraced higher above $60/bbl into the morning, reaching $60.51/bbl by 11:00 BST (time of writing). OPEC+ decided over the weekend to further speed up oil output hikes, by 411kb/d in June. The move comes despite weakening prices caused by fears of oversupply and economic weakness linked to Donald Trump’s trade war. Goldman Sachs has reduced their crude forecasts following this, with Brent/WTI averaging $60/56 in the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026, suggesting that the OPEC+ decision marks a shift towards supporting internal cohesion and to challenge US shale supply. President Trump told NBC on Sunday that he’s open to lowering tariffs on China “at some point,” citing their impact on trade between the two countries, while stressing that any future deal must be fair and confirming he has no plans to speak with President Xi this week. Shell is evaluating a potential takeover of BP amid its rival’s stock slump and strategic reset, but any move will depend on further oil price declines and whether a deal would quickly boost Shell’s free cash flow per share. Finally, the front (Jul/Aug) and 6-month (Jun/Jan) Brent futures spreads are at $0.32/bbl and $0.16/bbl respectively.
Price war? Battle for market share? A crack of the whip? The return to realism? Explanations for OPEC’s decision to consecutively accelerate production cut unwinds have been swirling. The market certainly reacted and the Asian session dropped to $59 on the open and just failed to regain the $60 handle by the close, coming in at $59.96/bbl. In difference to the previous announcement, however, this one was almost baked into the market consensus.
The disruptors! OPEC+ brought forward its meeting to tomorrow! The market didn’t expect that and Brent futures fell to below $61 on the reports. Is it just a coincidence that this puts the meeting on the weekend, outside of trading hours, when any market impact can be tempered? Looks like it to us… announcing a change on the weekend will give the market time to digest the impact and hopefully avoid an overextension in reaction. We’re also hearing reports that delegates are already discussing their decision. To cut to the chase, the cats are fighting and anxious about the consequences of their announcements and collapsing prices.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices initially move up to $62.16/bbl at 14:09 BST only to quicky fall to $60.74/bbl at 15:04 BST. Prices have since gained some support at $61.37/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, China is reportedly considering ways to address the Trump administration’s concerns over its role in the fentanyl trade, as per WSJ, potentially offering a way to allow for trade talks to begin. OPEC+ has moved its key meeting to Saturday, 3 May, to finalise plans for a June potential output hike of 411kb/d. Saudi Arabia appears ready to tolerate low prices, signalling growing frustration with overproducers like Iraq and Kazakhstan. April’s actual output fell despite planned increases. In other news, Exxon Mobil beat Wall Street’s Q1 expectations with a $7.71B, driven by higher oil and gas production from Guyana and the Permian Basin. Exxon maintained strong shareholder returns on track for its $20B annual repurchase goal. Production rose to 4.55 mboe/d, and the company reiterated its $27B–$29B capex target for 2025. Shell beat Q1 profit forecasts with $5.58B in earnings, despite a 28% drop from last year due to weaker oil prices and refining margins. It maintained a $3.5B share buyback, unlike BP, which cut returns. Petronas confirmed it received notices from the Sarawak state government over licensing issues tied to its subsidiary, Petronas Carigali, which local media say is operating without proper permits. The state gave 21 days to comply or face penalties. Petronas insists it operates under federal law and aims to resolve the matter collaboratively. Finally the front month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $0.60/bbl respectively.
While on the surface globally crude seems hands off, in Dubai it’s time to flip the script! Gone are the days of early-month caginess and jockeying for position in the physical window. PC and Vitol (and Gunvor) reversed roles and gave us a neck ache. Seller becomes the buyer and the other way around. This’s just a reflection of spread trading. Where you sold one month and bought the other one. Sadly, both Vitol and PC have to play the reverse role when the month expires and rolls into the new one.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract softened this morning, declining from around $62.70/bbl at 03:25 BST to $61.70/bbl at 10:20 BST. At the time of writing (11:15 BST), the contract stands a little higher at $61.90/bbl. China is reportedly “evaluating” an offer from the US to hold talks over the ongoing trade war between the two nations, as per China’s Commerce Ministry. This acknowledgement of an offer signals a possible de-escalation in the trade war, which has injected substantial volatility across global financial markets over the past month. China’s commerce ministry further added that the US should be prepared to correct “erroneous practices” and that it needed to show “sincerity” in any negotiations.
Brent rolled… out of bed and fell to the $60 floor! Yesterday afternoon’s pre-expiry selloff brought July Brent down to hover just
above $61 and it dropped on the open this morning. Brent slipped as low as $59.30 around lunchtime but fought to regain the $60
handle and even rose beyond $61.50 by 15:00 BST. A trader said confidently, this is the floor! After the June/July Brent spread was
so strong for so long, the July/August spread that’s now taken the position of prompt spread is languishing near 30c.
Down is up and up is down this week. Speculation has been wild about which way the collective OPEC thumb will point. The main victim in this has been Dubai crude, which has been under heavy pressure amid the likelihood of extra barrels from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia reminded the market that they can drop hints as unsubtle as they please, as they wondered out loud if a price war would make everyone behave. How many grains of salt to take this with is tricky. The USD held quite well despite disappointing GDP figures. Disappointing to some! We are looking at the ‘best negative print for GDP’ that Peter Navarro has seen. This topsy-turvy regime has been volatile, but after the golden week, the OPEC decision, and the UK bank holiday, some clarity is on the horizon.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally from $59.42/bbl at 12:00 BST to $61.78/bbl at 15:42 BST. Prices have since fallen off and are at $61.01/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US and Ukraine have signed a deal to share future profits from Ukraine’s mineral and energy reserves. The agreement also establishes a US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund and includes provisions giving the US access to some of Ukraine’s natural resources in return for future security guarantees. In other news, Saudi Arabia may increase oil output starting in June. Sources told Reuters and Bloomberg that the Saudis, comfortable with current low prices, are unlikely to support further supply cuts and may instead boost production to regain market share. Venezuela’s oil exports fell nearly 20% in April to about 700kb/d , the lowest in nine months, after state-run PDVSA suspended most Chevron cargoes over payment concerns tied to US sanctions enforcement. Chevron’s exports to the US dropped 69%, while other buyers like Reliance and Maurel & Prom increased imports ahead of a 27 May sanctions deadline. Meanwhile, Venezuela boosted imports of diluents like naphtha and began exporting a new crude grade, Blend 22. The IMF has cut its 2025 growth forecast for Middle East oil exporters to 2.3%, down from 4% previously, citing falling oil prices, weak demand, and ongoing trade tensions. It now expects oil to average $66.90/bbl due to rising non-OPEC+ supply and reduced global demand. Finally, he front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan spreads are at $0.35/bbl and $0.60/bbl respectively.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
