Our latest energy derivatives stories across the World.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
The Jun’25 Brent futures contract saw yet another weekly gain in the final week of March, opening at around $71.30/bbl on 24 Mar and now trading at $73.00/bbl at 1300 BST on 31 Mar. The M2 Jun’25 contract (soon to
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this fourth report, we take a look at the Q4’25 Brent/Dubai swaps contract.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Bearish sentiment has slowly been picking up since total positioning hit flat on 21 Feb, falling to a three-month low of around -127k lots on 11 Mar. Overall net positioning increased over the past week, moving up to -74k lots on 24 Mar from -122k lots on 17 Mar. The majority of the selected futures contracts continue to be net bearish, except for RBOB, which continued to be in the positives at 12k lots on 24 Mar from around 5k lots a week ago. Brent futures and WTI are now at around the same level of estimated net positioning after Brent has seen better support this week.
The May’25 Brent crude futures opened on 24 March above $72/bbl, marking its highest level traded since the start of March. Prices were supported last week as the US sanctioned a Chinese teapot refiner for the first time as it
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this fourth report, we take a look at the Mean-of-Platts Japan (MOPJ) naphtha crack.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Brent’s Balancing Act Since the front-month Brent futures hit a three-year low of almost $68.50/bbl on 05 Mar, the M1 contract has steadily ticked up to $71.30/bbl by the time of writing on 17 Mar. The market had largely been
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Bearish sentiment has slowly been picking up since positioning hit flat on 21 Feb, falling to a three-month low of around -127k lots on 11 Mar. Positioning has seen little movement over the past week, moving up slightly to -122k lots by 17 Mar. The majority of the selected futures contracts continue to be net bearish, except for RBOB which flipped net bullish from -21.5k lots on 03 Mar up to 2.4k on 05 Mar. This week, RBOB futures positioning has increased slightly to 5.2k lots by 17 Mar. Brent futures sat the lowest on the positioning model this week, reaching -44k lots on 11 Mar, now at its most bearish positioning seen since September 2024. WTI positioning was close behind as the second lowest on the model, hitting -37k lots on 12 Mar. Heating oil and gasoil futures have both steadily declined from around -20k and -22k lots, respectively, to -26k lots each.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this third report, we take a look at the Singapore Fuel Oil 380 CST Crack.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Since positioning plateaued around -81k and -85k lots at the beginning of March, we have observed the decline accelerate over the past few days. On 06 Mar, positioning fell below -100k for the first time since early December 2024, now sitting at -110k lots as of 07 Mar. As in our last report, Brent and WTI remain the lowest on the positioning model this week, falling from -23k down to -42k lots, and -21k to -34k lots, respectively, between 03-07 Mar. In addition, we saw bearish sentiment across both heating oil and gasoil, which declined from -3.7k to -19k lots, and from -10k to -23k lots, over the same period. In contrast, RBOB futures was the most bullish on the positioning model, rising from -21.5k lots on 03 Mar up to just under 2.4k lots on 07 Mar, flipping net positive for the first time since mid-February.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Since positioning plateaued around -81k and -85k lots at the beginning of March, we have observed the decline accelerate over the past few days. On 06 Mar, positioning fell below -100k for the first time since early December 2024, now sitting at -110k lots as of 07 Mar. As in our last report, Brent and WTI remain the lowest on the positioning model this week, falling from -23k down to -42k lots, and -21k to -34k lots, respectively, between 03-07 Mar. In addition, we saw bearish sentiment across both heating oil and gasoil, which declined from -3.7k to -19k lots, and from -10k to -23k lots, over the same period. In contrast, RBOB futures was the most bullish on the positioning model, rising from -21.5k lots on 03 Mar up to just under 2.4k lots on 07 Mar, flipping net positive for the first time since mid-February.
Uncertainty is the Only Certainty The front-month Brent futures contract fell from an open of nearly $73/bbl last Monday to an intraday low of $68.30/bbl on Wednesday. While prices found support there, they oscillated between $68 and $72/bbl for the
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
It’s coming. Not He but the Tariff Man! At last we’ll know who’s getting hit by what. And how much. Or maybe things will change again immediately after the press conference. To be upfront, we were confused what was actually in place preceding the set of tariffs. So much has been done and immediately undone. Keep an eye on @OnyxOfficials X page as we cover proceedings live.
The Jun’25 Brent crude futures initially grinded lower on Wednesday afternoon but found support at $74/bbl and rebounded to $75/bbl by 17:30 BST (time of writing). Today’s low of $73.85/bbl aligned with the 50-day moving average, a level of support. EIA stats indicated a 6.2mb build in crude in the week ending 28 March, while gasoline stocks fell by 1.6mb. In the news, Petrobras has made significant new oil discoveries in Brazil’s Campos, Santos, and Buzios basins, potentially accelerating peak production timelines by a year, according to its exploration chief. Norway’s financial regulator has uncovered that Romarine AS, a firm linked to Russia, issued fake insurance documents for sanctioned oil tankers in Russia’s shadow fleet, prompting a police investigation into unlicensed activity and document forgery. Russia has restricted Black Sea oil export infrastructure from the CPC following Ukrainian drone strikes on key facilities, impacting terminals used by Chevron and ExxonMobil, though Kazakhstan says flows remain unaffected. Nigeria has appointed Bashir Ojulari, former head of Shell Nigeria Exploration, as the new CEO of NNPC Ltd. to boost oil output and advance the company’s long-delayed IPO, amid ongoing challenges including a Senate probe, rising fuel prices, and renewed infrastructure attacks. Finally, the front (Jun/Jul) and 6-month (Jun/Dec) Brent futures spreads are at $0.80/bbl and $3.34/bbl respectively.
Today’s the day. At last. America’s ‘Liberation Day’. Forget about 4 July, this is the big one. Unless there have been any last minute calls from desperate leaders hoping to duck extra tariffs. Mr T has taken a pickaxe to global trade to reforge it in his own image. Who knows where he will hit next? And by how much? And on what?
The Jun’25 Brent futures contract initially dipped this morning from around $74.50/bbl at 0730 BST down to a touch under $74.00/bbl at 0850 BST, however, has recovered marginally to $74.15/bbl at 1140 BST (time of writing). With Trump declaring April 2 as ‘Liberation Day’, uncertainty over potential tariffs has weighed on crude prices this morning. According to Bloomberg, Trump’s team is still finalising the size and scope of new levies with several proposals under consideration…
M1 Brent futures continued its uptrend, climbing from a low of $72.50/bbl on 25 March to an intraday high of over $75.25/bbl on 01 April, breaking and closing above the 100-day moving average. Maintaining a price above $75.00/bbl has proven challenging in this bull run, so this psychological level will be the first resistance to surpass for the rally to continue. Past this, $76.00/bbl becomes the next hurdle, having proven to be strong resistance back in Oct-Nov last year. The 200-day moving average (white line) is trending toward this aforementioned level, also acting to prevent further upward price mobility. Downside risk is limited by the 10-day moving average (purple line), which is flush with the support trendline that found its inception in mid-March. Strong longer-term support below this level comes at $72.00/bbl, in keeping with the level off of which price rebounded in December.
$75 is a tough nut to crack. After last week’s rally, Brent rolled into April and fancied a go at it and the front month (June) contract tiptoed over this morning to peak at $75.27/bbl before falling back to close at $74.93/bbl. The front Brent spread took flight yesterday, closing in on $1.20, but descended again to 82c by today’s European close. So, what happens now? Is this overbought territory? Feels like it, and only those daring and with a strong expectation of boom boom should be long above $75… otherwise, risky!
At the time of our last report on 18 Mar, strength in the physical market we saw at the start of March had started to decline, with the Dated physical differential falling about 40c down to $0.45/bbl from 05-20 Mar. While we expected buying in the physical at these lower levels, buying has been much more aggressive and sudden than anticipated. In the window, we saw Vitol bidding Forties and Totsa came in bidding Midland, both in large volume. As a result, the physical diff rallied all the way up to $1.06/bbl, with BP being a seller in the physical at these high levels. The end of refinery maintenance season heading into April may have contributed to this rally, as demand for cargoes in May is quickly increasing.
The front-month (June’25) Brent futures contract remained rangebound this afternoon, hovering between $74.60 and $75.25/bbl and trading at $74.60/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing).
For the week ending 28 March, our momentum table shows most contracts seeing slight to moderate growth in exchange traded volumes for June and July tenors, except for gasoil contracts which declined by 13% and 20% respectively. For the May tenor, most contracts saw small changes or declines, while May Brent fell steeply by 29.69% and RBOB rose by 9%.
Before we get into the main report, we’d like to share a quick update. The Officials have just completed our third quarter and have hit 2 million views across our social media! If you would like to receive our reports directly, please get in touch and we will arrange to send them to you every day! Or go to our Twitter page @OnyxOfficials.
Jun’25 Brent futures failed to maintain strength over $75.00/bbl overnight and softened to around $74.50/bbl at 0915 BST but strengthened to around $75.15/bbl at 11.10 BST (time of writing). The US has revoked French oil company Maurel & Prom’s licence to operate in Venezuela as part of sanctions targeting the Maduro regime. Other companies, including Spain’s Repsol and Italy’s Eni, were also notified that their licences had been withdrawn. Threats by President Donald Trump to impose secondary sanctions on Russian oil have prompted Indian companies to seek alternative suppliers, Bloomberg reports. State-owned refineries like Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are now exploring options in the Middle East, North Sea, and Mediterranean regions. US crude oil production dropped by 305kb/d in January to 13.15 mb/d, the lowest level in over a year, according to the EIA. Texas and New Mexico led the decline, while natural gas output also fell by 1.7% during the same period. China’s oil consumption is projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025 to 765 million mt, driven by strong economic growth and rising petrochemical demand, according to a CNPC think tank. While transportation fuel use has peaked, plastics demand—especially from the EV sector—continues to grow. At the time of writing, the Jun/Jul’25 and Jun/Dec’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.82/bbl and $3.70/bbl, respectively.
What a difference the rumblings of war can do. For Brent, March was a month divided in two. In the first sessions, it tumbled to below $69, going all the way down to $68.50/bbl on 5 March. The drop was caused by poor economics as some countries could see a severe contraction in the growth rate. But then the price turned back and built steadily into the low $70s before last week’s rally to $74. The US was beating on the Houthis and the rumours were on that Trump would drop bombs like never seen on the Iranians.
The Jun’25 Brent crude futures saw a bullish performance on Monday afternoon, rising by nearly $2 over two hours from $73/bbl to $74.70/bbl by 17:00 BST (time of writing). The daily candlestick indicates resolute buying pressure as prices pushed through the 50-day and 100-day resistance levels. Prices have been supported by heightened geopolitical risks of US sanctions that could affect Venezuela and Iran’s oil exports. Trump being ‘angry’ at Putin and threatening secondary tariffs have further raised the bullish temperature.
RBOB futures strengthened this fortnight on stronger crude. Jun’25 RBOB rose from $2.17/gal on 17 Mar to $2.28/gal at the time of writing on 31 Mar, breaking above the 50-day moving average. The Jun’25 RBBR rallied from $20.00/bbl on 25 Mar to over $21.35/bbl on 28 Mar, although it failed to maintain this on 31 Mar with strong Brent. CFTC COT data for the week ending 25 Mar showed money managers were bullish in the week ending 25 Mar…
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in crude oil, gasoline, and naphtha swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The week ending 25 Mar saw a net increase of length in the crude futures benchmarks (Brent and WTI) as money managers accelerated their purchases. Crude prices strengthened as the front-month Brent futures contract bounced up from $70/bbl levels and closed above $73/bbl by 25 Mar, reaching three-week highs. Despite Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs reinforcing bearish sentiment on risk-off assets, oil saw a bullish week as prices bounced off three-year lows. The lack of perceived tangible progress in the US-Russian peace talks and US threats of secondary tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan oil supported sentiment.
While equities were getting hammered (see more in the detail), dated was on a tear! The April DFL rallied up to $1.58/bbl from just under a dollar before the move this morning. Traders noted mega short covering, “mental buying” said one trader. CFDs strengthened too with the 22-25 April contract jumping to $1.28/bbl, and the 31 March – 4 April contract rose to $2/bbl!
The May’25 Brent futures contract weakened from around $74.15/bbl at 1215 GMT down to an afternoon low of $73.25/bbl at 1625 GMT, retracing slightly to $73.50/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw a weekly gain but softened today, potentially as traders weigh up the impact of Trump’s tariffs scheduled for April 2. In the news today, the price of Russia’s ESPO crude blend has slumped to the lowest level since June 2024 as demand from Chinese state-owned firms has weakened, trading sources told Reuters. Cargoes of ESPO for April loadings are being traded at a discount of around $1.50/bbl against ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China. In other news, Russia’s tanker group Sovcomflot saw transportation volumes drop 16% y/y in 2024 to 63 million metric tons, Russian news agency Interfax reported. Primarily the result of US and European sanctions, Sovcomflot’s net profit dropped by 55% to $424 million in 2024. Finally, Ukrainian officials said the terms of the proposed mineral deal between Ukraine and the US have not yet been finalised, after Washington’s latest offer suggested it was demanding all of Ukraine’s natural resources income for years, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.86/bbl and $3.62/bbl.
Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) has been more quiet this fortnight, although it has weakened. The May’25 Sing 0.5% crack traded between $7.50 and $8.20/bbl, sitting just below $8/bbl on 28 Mar (at the time of writing). While flows have been quiet in the Sing VLSFO, this picked up towards the end of this week amid spread buying in the prompt. We continue to see sell-side interest in the crack. However, positioning is skewed towards selling and we expect volatility in the event of a bullish catalyst. Still, China’s Ministry of Commerce has issued its second batch of export quotas for clean oil products and LSFO, with the latter amounting to 5.2 million mt. This allocation brings total LSFO quotas for 2025 to 13.2 million mt, 10% up y/y, which may lend some weakness to VLSFO…
In March, markets once again found themselves being pulled to-and-fro as international trade developments, geopolitical tensions, and window shenanigans continued to challenge traders. Even Gunvor are pretty “risk off at the moment” according to discussion at the Ft Commodities Summit last week.
EARLY SING WINDOW- This morning, the front-month Brent futures contract ticked lower, from $74.15/bbl at 01:15 GMT to $73.75/bbl at 05:45 GMT. While the contract met resistance at the $74/bbl handle early morning, it saw a surge of volatility at around 08:30 GMT, following which prices moved from under $73.70/bbl to just shy of $74/bbl at 08:58 GMT (time of writing).
Bonjour to Zelenskyy, who received considerable validation from a slew of European leaders in Paris, emphasizing that now is “not the time” to begin lifting sanctions on Russia. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that the group aims to increase sanctions to “support the US initiative to bring Russia to the table through further pressure.” What is the US initiative? The US definitely wants a ceasefire that lasts longer than a business day, and it wants to achieve this without Europe. However, if Russia desires access to SWIFT (as per its latest demand), the US may have to collaborate more closely with the EU.
But based on direct discussions with various seniors in Switzerland the Europeans are still seeing a red mist and willing to let their industries die. But those who lead industries are so so ready to buy gas and forgive all. Note what the CEO of Total said yesterday about opening up but he is not the only one, he is just one willing to speak publicly.
Front-month Brent futures really did go from hanging on to the $70/bbl handle for dear life to soaring up to $74/bbl all in the same month. Before we bid farewell to the big box of uncertainty that March has been for oil prices, April starts with America’s “liberation day”, i.e., what President Trump has labelled his big tariff distribution day. A 25% tax on cars and car parts appears on the menu, with Trump promising it would lead to “tremendous growth” for the US. The world isn’t too convinced due to the danger this poses to a fully blown trade war, the threat which has dampened US customer confidence, increased inflation expectations, and led to the IMF forecasting a slowdown in the US, albeit ruling out a recession. Before we begin panicking, nothing can be said for sure – we might see a mysterious deal push all these tariffs into the distant future. Speaking of deals, the US is also dealing with an increasingly fragile ceasefire in the Black Sea. After reportedly agreeing to a maritime truce, Russia demanded the removal of sanctions on some of its banks, providing them access to Swift. This request was swiftly (sorry) rejected by Ukraine and the EU. It’s a bit unclear who is wielding the carrot and who is wielding the stick in this deal anymore, and it will be interesting to see what the US decides to do about this – maybe we’ll find out in a Signal chat next week.
May’25 Brent futures initially saw weakness this afternoon, declining from $73.80/bbl around 1300 GMT down to $73.23/bbl shortly after 1340 GMT, however, recovered to $73.90/bbl by 1735 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, President Zelenskiy said Russian artillery had damaged Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the city of Kherson, just two days after the truce on energy strikes was announced. The Ukrainian leader stated after a summit in Paris, “we are waiting for America’s reaction, since they told us that they will respond to violations”, according to Reuters. In other news, CNOOC reported an 11.4% rise in net profit for 2024 up to $19 billion. The increase in profit came as CNOOC’s net oil and gas production was up 7.2% y/y to 726.8mb of oil equivalent. Finally, Uganda’s $5 billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) has secured the first tranche of funding for the project for about $1 billion, with two additional funding tranches expected. The EACOP is a 1,443km-long pipeline to be built from Uganda to the Tanga port in Tanzania, projected to transport at least 216kb/d. Shareholders in EACOP include TotalEnergies with a 62% stake and CNOOC with an 8% stake. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.70/bbl and $3.33/bbl.
After a well-behaved trading session yesterday, PC and ADNOC crossed paths in the Dubai market and inverted the market again! Clearly nobody cares about an orderly market. Anybody who cares about things working properly awake anywhere or distorting in markets is an acceptable practice in key oil markets? ADNOC placed a bid at $74.80 immediately after PC offered at $74.75. Meanwhile, the Dubai physical premium hit its March high of $1.70… only to trip and fall 20c today to $1.50. And bam, they crossed again! A major told The Officials, “Ridiculous, how a producer bids and does not trade for the grade they produce and makes up the OSP”.
The May’25 Brent crude futures fell from the $74/bbl level on Thursday morning, reaching $73.50/bbl by 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Price action encountered a triple resistance zone at $74/bbl, where the 50-day and 100-day moving averages converged with the upper Bollinger Band. SAF production is on a steep climb but still projected to fall 30–45% short of 2030 targets due to high costs, underinvestment, and slowing project momentum, according to a new BCG report. China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical has opened a Calgary office and purchased its first Canadian crude cargo from Suncor. U.S. oil producers are facing geological and cost pressures in the Permian Basin, where rising gas and water output, aging wells, and less desirable acreage breakevens point to slowing production growth and a potential peak before 2030. Repsol and NEO Energy have agreed to merge their UK North Sea oil and gas operations into a new joint venture, NEO NEXT, aiming to boost output and unlock over $1 billion in synergies, as consolidation continues amid shifting regional economics and tax pressures. Uganda’s East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) has secured its first $1 billion tranche of bank financing, marking a key milestone for the TotalEnergies-led project as construction passes the halfway point on the 1,443-km export route to Tanzania’s coast. The Trump administration has called on oil and biofuel industry groups to negotiate a new consensus on U.S. biofuel policy, aiming to prevent the political friction that defined earlier Renewable Fuel Standard debates. Finally, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads are at $0.70/bbl and $3.20/bbl respectively.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
Brent futures soared to above $74 in a sudden afternoon rally, hitting $74.16/bbl at 15:51 GMT like a market jolted awake, then declined back to $73.92/bbl by close. The trigger? A Black Sea ceasefire announcement that lasted about as long as a Snapchat story.
After three days of tough negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea – or so the US thought. Within hours of the US announcing this agreement, the Kremlin said it would only commit to doing so once sanctions on several Russian banks were lifted. These demands include a restoration of the state agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank’s access to Swift, which would require EU approval….oh boy, will this get dragged on.
The May’25 Brent futures contract traded sideways this afternoon, increasing from $73.60/bbl at 1230 GMT up to $74.15/bbl at 1550 GMT, before declining to $73.65/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have fluctuated as Russia and Ukraine have now accused one another of flouting the ceasefire on energy strikes reached on 25 Mar.
The major propane benchmarks were ultimately supported in the fortnight ending 26 Mar as we saw increasing strength in crude oil prices…
The children didn’t misbehave! Chats in Lausanne with various market sources raised the issue of disorderly markets. There is an inherent duty when operating a marketplace, more so if it is regulated by IOSCO, to have proper systems in place and market order is a key requirement.
The front-month Brent futures contract ticked up slightly from $73.10/bbl at 07:40 GMT to $73.55/bbl at 09:50 GMT. While this level attracted some selling, perhaps from longs taking profit, the flat price has since risen to $73.65/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing)
As of the week ending 21 March, our momentum table shows Brent contracts seeing declines in exchange traded volumes for the May tenor, but strong growth in June and July tenors. The gasoil, heating oil and RBOB contracts saw either decreases or only marginal increases, while WTI saw the largest declines across tenors.
Big news out of Riyadh! The US announced that both Russia and Ukraine agreed to a truce in the Black Sea and ‘will try their very best’ to avoid attacking each other’s energy infrastructure. Pinky promise! Bears are omnivores and enjoy carrots too, and the Kremlin would be well advised to take sanctions relief where they can get it. To this end, the US stated it would restore Russia’s access to global agricultural and fertiliser markets, while the Kremlin emphasised the need for sanctions relief on banks and companies involved in the food trade. It only took them several days to come up with this! The road to peace is a piecemeal one, pun intended, but welcome nonetheless. As Uncle Sam might put it to Putin and Zelenskyy, I want you guys to stop fighting! And the market reacted swiftly to the news! Brent futures surged to above $73.50/bbl in the morning before slumping in the afternoon by about $1 to close at $72.76/bbl.
M1 Brent futures swiftly bounced higher last week, climbing from the $70/bbl handle to open at $73/bbl on 25 March. On 24 March, prices closed above the 30-day moving average (white line), which has now flipped from resistance to support at $72.50/bbl. A break below this level could open the door for a retest of the 10-day moving average (blue line) at $71.45/bbl. On the upside, the 50-day ($74.57/bbl) and 100-day moving averages ($74.30/bbl) (green and purple lines, respectively) form a double resistance zone, a level that also acted as key support during February’s lows. A decisive break above this area could signal renewed bullish momentum.
