Our latest energy derivatives stories across the World.
Brent rally? Aaaaaand it’s gone. Brent crude futures is on track to see a small gain w/w, as the Apr’25 contract rose from $74.50/bbl on 17 Feb to $77/bbl by 20 Feb before correcting lower to $75/bbl by 16:00 GMT
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Apr’25 Brent crude flat price has stabilised after last week’s sell-off and is trading at $74.60/bbl as of 12:00 GMT on 17 February (time of writing). While Trump’s tariff threats have raised concerns about their implications for oil demand,
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Over the past week, we saw CTA net positioning briefly flip positive, increasing from -31.7k lots on 10 Feb up to 0.1k lots on 12 Feb, however, positioning fell back down to -17.4k lots by 17 Feb. We saw the most bearish positioning in Brent and WTI crude futures this week, sitting at -13.4k lots and -13.3k lots, respectively, as of 17 Feb. Heating oil remained highest on the model with the most bullish positioning fo 9.5k lots on 12 Feb, tapering off to 7.86k lots on 17 Feb. ICE gasoil moved from -3.8k lots to 2.5k lots amid bullish sentiment this week. RBOB positioning was at -3k lots on 10 Feb and briefly touched above flat on 12 Feb, hitting 1.8k lots, but declined to -1k by 17 Feb. Nevertheless, RBOB remains much higher than its monthly low of -11.4k lots on 03 Feb.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
In this new publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Trader’s data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.In this first publication we take a look at the 3.5% HSFO Barge Crack.
Sell Baby Sell? On Monday, we forecast the front-month Brent futures contract to hover between $74 and $77/bbl by the end of this week. As of Friday, at 10:05 GMT, the M1 futures contract is trading at $75.40/bbl. In line
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Over the past fortnight, we saw CTA net positioning become increasingly bearish and flip negative, falling from around 28.7k lots on 28 Jan down to -31k lots on 10 Jan. Brent futures positioning accounted for the majority of this decline, decreasing around 270% over the fortnight down to -15k lots. Meanwhile, WTI saw a similar trajectory, falling from 6.9k lots on 28 Jan down to -13.7k lots as of 10 Feb. Heating oil positioning remained above 0 while the rest of the products dipped below, with ICE gasoil showing the most bearish net positioning at -3.2k lots on 10 Feb. RBOB was the only futures contract where positioning became more bullish this fortnight, rising around 130% up to -2.8k lots, however, still remains the second lowest on the positioning model.
Tariff-ying Times Ahead The front-month Brent futures contract jumped from $74.60/bbl at 20:00 GMT last Friday to $75.60/bbl at 12:15 GMT this morning (time of writing). Oil prices face an increasingly uncertain time ahead of the rising possibility of a
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Brent crude futures endured a volatile week as prices grind lower and are on track for a third consecutive weekly decline. On 05 February, the Apr’25 contract closed below $75/bbl for the first time since 31 December. Market participants have
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.
This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.
The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.
Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 31 Jan, we observed CTA buying flows tapering off as they reduced their length. Brent futures saw a 95% decline w/w in CTA net length to 775 lots. WTI futures saw a 110% decline in the same week to -1.9k lots, flipping into the negative handle for the first time since 3 Jan. ICE gasoil also dipped below 0 for the first time since 2 Jan, declining by 107% to -863 lots on 31 Jan. While heating oil saw a 40% decline w/w, net length remained above 0 on 31 Jan, at +12.7k lots. Finally, RBOB noted a 205% decline w/w to -10.9k lots.
The talk of the market has been Trump’s tariff announcement on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. This week, we expect price action in Brent crude futures to remain rangebound between $75 and $79/bbl in the Apr’25 contract as the
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, and BOIL. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
Risk off, worry on On Monday, we forecast March Brent futures to end the week between $75-79.00/bbl. At 1600 GMT, March Brent is within this range at $76.75/bbl as it expires today, and April becomes the prompt at $75.75/bbl. This
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
March Brent began the week with a strong correction, down around 2% to close at $76.93/bbl on Monday. The move came with a significant weakening of price structure, as the prompt month-time spread shed some 20 cents to $0.80/bbl. Oil
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 24 Jan, we observed CTA buying flows tapering off as they reduced their length. Net positioning peaked on 17 Jan at 125k lots before falling to 63k lots by 24 Jan. From a product basis, heating oil is currently the most bullish product at 20k lots, as its pace of decline was exceeded by both Brent and WTI. Meanwhile, US gasoline (RBOB) futures remains the weakest segment, as its net position fell below 0 down to -6k lots.
The market jumped and dumped. From over $77 yesterday afternoon, flat price declined steadily early today throughout Asian trading and made it to lunchtime in London just above $76. And then Team America slam dunked it. Brent collapsed to below $75 and just about clawed its way above to close at $75.01/bbl! $75 has been a sticky level in recent weeks, so how well can flat price hold on this time?
The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price dropped to around $76.15/bbl at 1400 GMT to $74.90/bbl at 1715 GMT (time of writing) as it broke back below the 50-day moving average today. JODI data reported that China’s total product demand fell by 17 kb/d this month, while total product imports increased by 96 kb/d. Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported that oil production has declined to 1.405 mb/d. The US is pressuring Iraq to resume Kurdish oil exports, warning of sanctions over ties to Iran. Baghdad plans to restart exports next week, but payment and logistics disputes remain. According to Fox News Radio, President Trump stated that it is “not important” for Zelenskyy to attend peace meetings. The front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $2.35/bbl, respectively, at the time of writing.
The Mar’25 TTF futures contract rallied to over €58/MWh on 10 Feb, its highest level since January 2023, amid greater withdrawals from European gas storage and colder weather, but it has since retraced to €47.50/MWh on 20 Feb. The soon-to-be-prompt Apr’25 TTF swap contract moved similarly, briefly touching €58/MWh on 10 Feb before retracing to €47.50/MWh. Since our last report, European gas supplies have fallen by around 8% to 42% of total capacity (481 TWh), as per Gas Infrastructure Europe. However, any support for TTF these continual draws was overtaken by bearish sentiment due to Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Additionally, the EU is now reportedly planning to relax its LNG refilling requirements, which may lend further bearish sentiment.
The familiar faces of the regulars turned up again for another cortège in the Dubai window – Vitol and PetroChina kept on buying from the usual sellers, Reliance and Chevron. But there’s a new boy in town. Shell waltzed in and lifted a Chevron offer, the first time we’ve seen them in a while – but just one trade for now. Again, there were a few other bidders there or thereabouts, but the likes of Trafi and BP kept their bids below the market. Yet, we’ve reached the end of the third week of February and we’ve still not seen one single convergence in Dubai. Nobody wants to dive in and seize the market – don’t worry, guys, Totsa are all off skiing, they’re not going to massacre you again.
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has seen weakness this morning, trading from $76.25/bbl at 0700 GMT down to $75.80/bbl at 1045 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have continued to see bearish sentiment following the 4.63mb build in US crude inventories announced in 20 Feb’s EIA data. In the news today, Suriname’s state oil company Staatsolie is seeking $1.5 billion in funding to participate in the country’s Gran Morgu energy project, the head of Staatsolie told Reuters…
The Trump/Musk team want to audit Fort Knox to see if the gold reserves are really there. We’re waiting for the details on the visit while also wondering if Musk could come to London and audit the aptly named Loco London gold market. You see, we’ve been hearing about gold delivery problems in London while watching the price skyrocket towards the $3,000/troy ounce level. Maybe there is gold and maybe there isn’t. But one of delivery points, the mighty Bank of England is not delivery the gold speedily. Conspiracy theorists say there isn’t enough to cover all the obligations, while some people we know say only 15 employees are authorised to handle extraction from deep underground vaults using a rickety old lift.
The Apr’25 Brent Futures contract was rangebound this afternoon, trading between $76.25/bbl and $76.60/bbl until around 16:00 GMT, after which it rallied to $77.02/bbl, where it sits at the time of writing (17:20 GMT). EIA statistics highlighted a 4.63mb build in crude stocks while distillates and gasoline drew 2.05mb and 0.15mb, respectively. In headlines, Texas based refiner HF Sinclair Corporation reported a Q4 2024 adjusted net loss of $191 million, missing analyst expectations due to declining refining margins driven by high global fuel supply and lower sales volumes. While other major refiners like Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 also faced profitability challenges, they exceeded analyst forecasts. Germany’s antitrust authority called for stronger regulation of oil price quotations, citing vulnerabilities to manipulation due to limited data and market participant dominance in price reporting. Meanwhile, Japanese oil firm Japex is refocusing on oil and gas after poor returns in renewables, citing rising costs in offshore wind projects. The company aims to acquire a US shale operator by 2026 and increase oil and gas investments through 2030, following a trend set by major energy firms like Shell, Equinor, and BP, which have also scaled back renewable energy commitments. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.47/bbl and $2.74/bbl respectively.
Front-month Brent futures has been more supported this week. We initially oscillated between $74 and $75/bbl before breaking into the $76/bbl handle. The $77/bbl handle remains a critical resistance level, which the M1 futures contract is now flirting with at $76.95/bbl at the time of writing. The market is riddled with uncertainty surrounding the timeline for the war in Ukraine. While the US appears determined to negotiate a deal with Russia, leaving Ukraine out of the meeting room may cause some friction. On top of this, we continue to see news of drone strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine, highlighting that the market may continue to price in geopolitical risk. On the other hand, OPEC+ is considering postponing its deadline to inject supply into the market for a fourth time, which further helped place a floor on oil prices. Still, US crude oil supplies saw a 4.6mb build in the week ending 14 Feb, announced on 20 Feb. Meanwhile, gasoline has seen a slight w/w decline in inventories for the second consecutive week. This unseasonal draw in gasoline alongside a build in crude may indicate potential refinery maintenance, potentially lending bearish sentiment to crude demand. Hence, the oil market has several moving parts to consider, which may lead players to remain on the sidelines while waiting for more clarity. However, should Brent comfortably breach the $77/bbl resistance level, we may see the bulls emerge en-masse.
The same players came out for some more fun in Dubai today. Chevron resumed its offering, though was less interested in hitting bids. That role was taken up by Reliance, which hit both Vitol and PetroChina with aplomb. Others were hanging out in the window but kept their distance from the action: Exxon’s bids were low, while Shenghong’s offers were high, so neither got stuck into the meat of the matter. Indeed, it’s still rather quiet, with only 4 trades today and STILL no convergence! We’re getting withdrawal symptoms after Totsa’s antics in the previous three months. What can we say, we miss them!
The Apr’25 Brent futures saw prices rise to $76.28/bbl at 0800 GMT before dropping to $75.81/bb at 0854 only to jump back to $76.00/bbl at 0900 GMT and has slowly been climbing up to $76.26/bbl at 1043 GMT (time of writing). Turkey’s top oil refiner, TUPRAS, has halted Russian crude imports to avoid US sanctions, reflecting the challenges of balancing supply and Western market access. Meanwhile, Russia reported a 30%-40% drop in Caspian Pipeline flows after a Ukrainian drone attack, cutting up to 380 kb/d. Norway’s January oil production hit 1.775 mb/d, slightly above expectations despite a year-on-year decline, while cold weather reduced North Dakota’s output by up to 130 kb/d. Additionally, Iranian crude exports to China rebounded 86% in February despite US sanctions. The Biden administration’s last-minute sanctions targeted tankers and trading entities, but new receiving terminals and ship-to-ship transfers have facilitated the flow, though a renewed US “maximum pressure” strategy may curb exports again.The front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.33/bbl and $2.48/bbl, respectively, at the time of writing.
Brent fancied a run up the hill. It climbed and danced its way up throughout the morning, like the longs making the most of the rally, from the early Asian session right through to after lunchtime here in London, but it stalled and fell back slightly to the European close. By the end of the window, it had slid back down to $76.43/bbl, almost 40c down from its peak. It’s getting chilly out there in the US, so keep an eye on production shut ins – with North Dakota already expecting at least a 150 kb/d reduction. But Brent kept falling post-window, down below $76 by 18:00 GMT.
After the Apr’25 Brent futures rose from $76.30/bbl at 1300 GMT this afternoon to a weekly high of almost $76.80/bbl at 1440 GMT, before falling down to $76.25/bbl at 1735 GMT Overall, crude oil prices have been supported on fears of supply disruption, following the drone attack on the CPC pipeline oil flows and ongoing cold weather in the US. In the news today, oil flows from Iran to China rebounded in February after traders smoothed logistical bottlenecks caused by tighter US sanctions, seeing an increase in ship-to-ship transfers and use of alternative terminals, Bloomberg reports. In February, Iranian oil flows to China hit 1.7mb/d, a level last seen in Sep 2024 and up from 932kb/d in January, as per Kpler. In other news, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine would not be excluded from negotiations to end the war, but success would depend on raising the level of trust between Moscow and Washington, according to Reuters. Finally, India is scouting for overseas oil storage and is in talks with Oman to hold about 5mb of crude oil, L.R. Jain, the chief executive of Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves (ISPRL) stated. Jain told Reuters that this would be the first time that India will be holding storage overseas if a deal with Oman is reached. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $2.66/bbl, respectively.
Who knew? Talking can resolve conflicts. The Russians said talks with the US had gone well and they had covered a wide array of issues. Rubio said the end of the Ukraine war must be acceptable to all – but does he just mean those who are present in Riyadh? As the wordsmiths and silver-tongued diplomats got busy charming and schmoozing, Brent cooled from its peak over $76 to fall back towards $75, soothed by Lavrov’s revelation there should be some moratorium on attacks on energy facilities in the conflict – too late for Kazakhstan . An afternoon recovery saw Brent close at $75.62/bbl.
The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price saw a quiet morning, slowly rising from $76.16/bbl at 0700 GMT to $76.42/bbl at 1030 GMT (time of writing). The rise came as president Donald Trump signalled a possible tightening of restrictions on Chevron’s oil exports from Venezuela, amid ongoing tensions with the Maduro government, while uncertainty surrounding Ukraine peace talks also provided support to flat price. Goldman Sachs predicts that a potential Ukraine ceasefire and eased sanctions on Russia will not significantly increase Russian oil flows, as production is constrained by OPEC+ targets rather than sanctions. In other news, Glencore increased its oil and gas trading volume in 2024 to 3.7mb/d, up from 3.3mb/d in 2023, but its earnings from energy trading dropped 47% to $908 million, reflecting a return to normal levels after prior market volatility. Despite expanding its oil portfolio, Glencore remains below its 2019 trading peak, while competitors like Trafigura saw higher traded volumes. The front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $2.75/bbl respectively at the time of writing.
The Officials Team is launching a Liquidity Report covering major futures markets and also key swap instruments. The Report contains average daily traded volumes for five working days periods and compares them with the previous five working days giving an indicator of liquidity flows into major instruments from week to week. You may consider this, as we do, as a momentum financial indicator into or out of an instrument. In addition, we also provide comparison with the previous year which gives an indication of a discrepancy year on year. These are indicators that are used to market practitioners.
This week, we have seen a good example of the dichotomy between Brent’s futures and the physical market that underpins it. In the physical, it seems that the market has found a floor this week. Equinor and Gunvor were running down the physical premium with good offering, but this has been met with better buying now. On 17 Feb, Glencore, PetroIneos, and Totsa were bidding for Forties and Midland, and we expect some better support here with good refiner buying seen with decent margins. Our view is that for this month, there is not a lot of crude left in loading cycles for the North Sea grades. This leaves Midland’s availability key to the strength of Dated. The cold weather in the US, along with fog issues at ports, could cause some issues here, from what has been some strong export levels from the States.
The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price saw a choppy afternoon, swinging by a dollar from $76 to $75/bbl before rising to $75.70/bbl by 17:00 GMT. According to a Bloomberg report, privately-run terminals in China, particularly in Shandong, Yangshan, and Huizhou, have become key hubs for receiving sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude, allowing independent refiners to circumvent U.S. restrictions while shielding major state-owned operators from scrutiny. Diamondback Energy is expanding its Permian Basin footprint with a $4.1 billion acquisition of Double Eagle IV, paid through $3 billion in cash and stock, adding 27kb/d of production while prioritising efficiency and free cash flow amid a wave of industry consolidation. The G-7 is considering tightening the Russian oil price cap to curb Moscow’s war revenues and push for a negotiated peace in Ukraine, though details remain unclear and the plan faces diplomatic hurdles amid shifting U.S. foreign policy under Trump. Turkey’s largest oil refiner, Tupras, has halted Russian crude purchases due to U.S. sanctions, with final shipments arriving in February, marking a significant shift after Russian oil made up 65% of Turkey’s imports in 2024. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $2.56/bbl respectively.
Who knew? Talking can resolve conflicts. The Russians said talks with the US had gone well and they had covered a wide array of issues. Rubio said the end of the Ukraine war must be acceptable to all – but does he just mean those who are present in Riyadh? As the wordsmiths and silver-tongued diplomats got busy charming and schmoozing, Brent cooled from its peak over $76 to fall back towards $75, soothed by Lavrov’s revelation there should be some moratorium on attacks on energy facilities in the conflict – too late for Kazakhstan . An afternoon recovery saw Brent close at $75.62/bbl.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in gasoline, NGL, and distillates swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The Mar’25 RBOB futures contract has consolidated in the $2.10/gal region and is supported by the 34-day moving average. It may find resistance at $2.17/gal, a high seen in October 2024 and January 2025. Momentum is neutral, while Onyx’s CTA model shows a near-flat position in RBOB futures. This contrasts with the lagged data of the CFTC COT report for the week ending 11 Feb that showed that money managers were getting longer in RBOB futures.
Rubio and Lavrov sitting across a table from each other, mediated by the Saudis – 30% of global oil production in one room! These are the really big players on the world stage, gathered to carve up the almost expired Ukraine. So sick it is in the infirmary attended by European doctors about to be judged not so good at their job. The US, who has guns, wants its money back and the Russians aren’t prepared to cede any territory they’ve seized. It’s been a 3-year slog, why would they?!
While the world is divided, anyone for $76? After the window closed at $75.18/bbl, Brent went on an adventure, clambering up beyond $76 by 10:45 GMT. Maybe those OPEC rumours are stickier than we thought or not everyone’s as optimistic as us about the prospect for peace in Ukraine – neither Lavrov nor Rubio looked especially happy during their meeting ☹.
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract was supported above the $75/bbl handle this morning, climbing to $75.85/bbl at 09:40 GMT, where it initially met resistance, before ultimately climbing to $75.95/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing).
The Riyadh meeting represents the three biggest oil producers in the world: US, Saudi Arabia and Russia, with an output of over 31 mil b/d! Around one third of total global oil production. Lavrov, Rubio and MBS are the big wigs drawing out new lines on the map and energy must be at the centre of this new world order. Zelenskyy is also apparently going to visit Saudi Arabia this week – we wonder whether the others will stick around to wait for him or if he’ll be Mr Lonely. He’s busy as he needs a new home. He is also going to visit Turkey tomorrow, according to Erdoğan’s office. Maybe the Turkey Riviera beckons him.
The front-month Brent futures contract softened from an intraday high of $77.30/bbl on 11 Feb to $75/bbl the next day, following which it drifted sideways and now stands at $74.85/bbl on 17 Feb (at 16:20 GMT). The contract appears to be consolidating around the $75/bbl handle, with the 10-day (white line on the chart) and structural 100-day moving averages (purple line on the chart) converging towards each other just above $75/bbl, potentially establishing short-term resistance at this level. The 50-day MA (blue line on the chart) is above these two lines, although only slightly at $75.90/bbl. We expect to see short-term support at $74/bbl, having first been a significant resistance level in Q4’24. We could also see support at the $72/bbl handle, which the contract tested at the end of 2024. In the case that the contract breaks out to the upside, it would need to successfully surpass resistance at $77/bbl.
After softening this morning, the Apr’25 Brent futures contract saw steady strength this afternoon, rising from $74.45/bbl at 1215 GMT up to $75.10/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have ultimately remained rangebound today as markets await further developments toward potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks. In the news today, while OPEC+ is considering pushing back a series of monthly supply increases due to begin in April, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ producers are not looking to delay the April production hikes, Russia’s RIA news agency reported. In other news, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) reported a drone attack on its largest crude oil pump station in Russia, known as PS Kropotinskaya. The CPC operates a pipeline from northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port on Russia’s Black Sea coast, which carries around 80% of Kazakh crude exports. Currently, PS Kropotkinskaya is out of service and the CPC pipeline is operating at reduced flow rates. Finally, Iraq’s Minister of Oil, Hayan Abdulghani, said in a statement that no obstacles remain to the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan, with expectations for exports to take place by early March, according to Kurdistan24. After almost two years since the start of the dispute between Iraq and Kurdistan, Iraq’s Minister of Oil claims that Baghdad could now receive 300kb/d from the region. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.29/bbl and $2.28/bbl, respectively.
In the week ending 11 Feb, combined open interest (OI) across both Brent and WTI futures increased by 67mb (+1.6%), following two consecutive weeks of declines. We saw a proportionately greater increase in Brent futures OI, which rose 44mb w/w, almost double compared to a 23mb w/w increase in WTI futures OI. Money managers added risk this week but were hesitant to add significant length, increasing their combined long positions across Brent and WTI by only 2mb (+0.4%). Meanwhile, we saw bearish sentiment among speculators start to pickup as money managers added 15.4mb (+10.5%) to their combined short positions. Net positioning has become increasingly bearish over the past few weeks, currently sitting at 415mb, the lowest level seen since December 2024. This rise in bearish sentiment may have been an ongoing reaction to US tariffs delays in addition to news of negotiations toward a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
Trump wants rent (or get paid back) but Zelenski said no. We think he’s gone imminently. And UK Starmer is ready to send 25,000 troops to the Ukraine Starmer has to take the biscuit, He is offering to send a peacekeeping force to Ukraine, but it is not numerically possible. This costs loads of money and Reeves wants to hold defence spending at 2.3% of GDP for as long as possible. Starmer’s set to visit the White House next week, he’ll need to provide some grovelling form of
appeasement and Reeves might have to dig up $5-6 billion extra needed to raise that to 2.5%! Great use of tax money! Let’s be blunt here, NATO lost again and this means that an accommodation between Russia and the US will be ironed out in ‘Trump’s time’ as one of his envoys said. This means quick time in the Riyadh meeting. Note Switzerland was bypassed.
The front-month Brent futures contract was rangebound around $74.75/bbl and $75/bbl all morning before rising to $75.15/bbl at 10:23 GMT, where it met resistance and softened to $74.90/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing).
Europe has been cast off as JD Vance calls Europe’s leaders Kommisars and accused the politicians of ignoring the will of the people, cancelling elections, curtailing freedom of speech and incarcerating people for expressing their beliefs in a peaceful manner. He ruffled some of the grey-suited Europeans’ feathers with his barrage of criticism against Europe’s leadership. We hope the Munich Conference leads to a more lasting peace than the 1938 Agreement. Whatever Starmer says, insisting Ukraine’s momentum towards NATO is “irreversible”, it’s obvious Europe is relegated to the children’s table. They scream and shout for attention, but the grown-ups are busy talking among themselves. Scholz didn’t get a Valentine’s hug from Vance, who ignored him. ☹ Vance also told the Europeans to take care of themselves.
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract increased from $75.45/bbl at 1200 GMT this afternoon up to $75.80/bbl at 1330 GMT, where prices sold-off to $74.85/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US aims to squeeze Iran’s oil exports to less than 10% of current levels, Bloomberg reported. “We are committed to bringing the Iranians to going back to the 100kb/d of oil exports” shipped during the first Trump administration, Bessent said in a Fox Business interview. In other news, ADNOC Drilling plans to borrow $1 billion from banks in 2025 to refinance expiring debt, the company’s CFO Youssef Salem told Bloomberg Television. Salem said “We expect to be refinancing and up-sizing to fund our growth”, stating the company has roughly $750 million in debt maturing in the fourth quarter. Finally, China has begun drilling ultra-deep oil and gas wells in the Taklimakan Desert, located in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. One well, the Manshen 72-H6 in Xayar County is planned to reach a depth of 8,735 metres. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.31/bbl and $2.33/bbl, respectively.
In High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), the 3.5% barge complex weakened into the new year. The Feb/Mar’25 3.5% barge spread dropped from $4/mt on 27 Dec to a contango of -$1/mt on 14 Jan. While this contango was short-lived, the spread remains pressured and was seen at $1.25/mt on 17 Jan (at the time of writing). Coupling this with a stronger crude, the Feb’25 3.5% barge crack fell from -$5.60/bbl on 27 Dec to -$7.70/bbl at the time of writing. The crack has also seen significant sell-side interest from trade houses (who flipped from being net buyers on 8 Jan), end users, hedge funds and banks. In Asia, the Feb/Mar’25 Singapore 380 cst spread softened at the start of the year but rallied from $2/mt on 7 Jan to $7.50/mt on 17 Jan amid increased trade house and major buying. Accordingly, the Feb’25 380 East/West (380 vs 3.5% barges) surged up to $25.75/mt on 17 Jan. The differential between 180 cst and 380 cst fuel oil (Visco) in Feb’25 declined from $8.25/mt on 3 Jan to $6.50/mt on 17 Jan (at the time of writing).
Apr’25 Brent futures strengthened from around $75.10/bbl at 0630 GMT this morning up to $75.55/bbl at 0835 GMT, before tapering off to $75.25/bbl at 1055 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, a Russian drone has caused significant damage to the radiation containment shelter at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant overnight, President Zelenskyy has stated. The attack caused a fire which has since been extinguished, while the UN’s energy watchdog said radiation levels remain normal, as per Reuters. In other news, India has agreed to boost oil and gas imports from the US in order to reduce the trade imbalance and avoid retaliatory tariffs, Bloomberg reported. India was once the top buyer of US crude, accounting for 14.5% of total US exports in 2021, however, the US accounted for less than 5% of India’s total imports in the first 11 months of 2024. Finally, the Nigerian government has signed agreements with Algeria and the Republic of Niger to advance the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) and enhance gas supplies to European markets, according to Nigeria’s BusinessDay. The pipeline is projected to stretch approximately 4,400km, connecting Nigerian gas fields in the Niger Delta to Europe. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $2.50/bbl, respectively.
Peace is coming even if the old and feeble European empires are still resisting, in words because they have no swords. American realism is clashing with the old, wounded German, British and French egos, but if you have no money and no swords all that you can do is moan – and moan they will! America has realized that dumping material and money into Ukraine will turn out more financially disastrous that the $3 trillion consumed in Afghanistan.
If there’s any doubt of the outcome look at the markets; they have no emotion, they just react to conditions. TTF shed 18% in three working days and is now trading at €48.58/MWh. The German Dax index is up 3.7% in five days and 8% in a month; the economy likes peace even if Scholz doesn’t. The expiring German Chancellor won’t be seen by Vance in his own country at the Munich conference because, as an American official said; “We don’t need to see him, he won’t be chancellor long.” So true. Rollover Beethoven. 😊 And Macron, all he can do is take a stab with his mighty pen and write whatever in the FT about a response to the American ‘electroshock’. He also has no money and is on borrowed time. The war’s over.
The German stock market likes the developments, with the Dax up over 2% today to a record high! Losing has never felt so good. NATO chief, Rutte, insisted that Ukraine will be involved in any peace talks and, apparently, the Kremlin agreed that its foe should be involved “in one way or another”. European leaders also chirped up a chorus that they will not be ignored or disregarded. A show of force or more likely a lunge for some kind of relevance. Zelenskyy said Ukraine won’t accept any deals made between the US and Russia in its absence, like he has any option. Just make it end!
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has made a recovery after weakness this morning, trading from around $74.10/bbl at 1300 GMT up to $75.00/bbl at 1730 GMT. In the news today, President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not accept any bilateral agreement reached by Russia and the US without Kyiv’s involvement. The Kremlin responded that Ukraine would “of course” be involved in peace talks but that there would be a separate US-Russian channel for negotiations, as per Reuters. In other news, Hamas stated it is willing to proceed with the Gaza ceasefire deal, agreeing to release the next three Israeli hostages this weekend in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. This came as the 42-day Gaza ceasefire appeared close to failure this week with Israel and Hamas accusing the other of violating the peace deal. Finally, Syria is struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders as shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels to the country in case they are detained, according to an Argus report. In January, Syria’s transitional government issued tenders seeking 4.2mb of crude oil, 80kt of 90 RON gasoline, and 100kt of fuel oil and gasoil, all of which closed earlier this month. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.36/bbl and $2.48/bbl, respectively.
