Our latest energy derivatives stories across the World.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this fourth report, we take a look at the Q4’25 Brent/Dubai swaps contract.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Bearish sentiment has slowly been picking up since total positioning hit flat on 21 Feb, falling to a three-month low of around -127k lots on 11 Mar. Overall net positioning increased over the past week, moving up to -74k lots on 24 Mar from -122k lots on 17 Mar. The majority of the selected futures contracts continue to be net bearish, except for RBOB, which continued to be in the positives at 12k lots on 24 Mar from around 5k lots a week ago. Brent futures and WTI are now at around the same level of estimated net positioning after Brent has seen better support this week.
The May’25 Brent crude futures opened on 24 March above $72/bbl, marking its highest level traded since the start of March. Prices were supported last week as the US sanctioned a Chinese teapot refiner for the first time as it
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this fourth report, we take a look at the Mean-of-Platts Japan (MOPJ) naphtha crack.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Brent’s Balancing Act Since the front-month Brent futures hit a three-year low of almost $68.50/bbl on 05 Mar, the M1 contract has steadily ticked up to $71.30/bbl by the time of writing on 17 Mar. The market had largely been
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Bearish sentiment has slowly been picking up since positioning hit flat on 21 Feb, falling to a three-month low of around -127k lots on 11 Mar. Positioning has seen little movement over the past week, moving up slightly to -122k lots by 17 Mar. The majority of the selected futures contracts continue to be net bearish, except for RBOB which flipped net bullish from -21.5k lots on 03 Mar up to 2.4k on 05 Mar. This week, RBOB futures positioning has increased slightly to 5.2k lots by 17 Mar. Brent futures sat the lowest on the positioning model this week, reaching -44k lots on 11 Mar, now at its most bearish positioning seen since September 2024. WTI positioning was close behind as the second lowest on the model, hitting -37k lots on 12 Mar. Heating oil and gasoil futures have both steadily declined from around -20k and -22k lots, respectively, to -26k lots each.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this third report, we take a look at the Singapore Fuel Oil 380 CST Crack.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Since positioning plateaued around -81k and -85k lots at the beginning of March, we have observed the decline accelerate over the past few days. On 06 Mar, positioning fell below -100k for the first time since early December 2024, now sitting at -110k lots as of 07 Mar. As in our last report, Brent and WTI remain the lowest on the positioning model this week, falling from -23k down to -42k lots, and -21k to -34k lots, respectively, between 03-07 Mar. In addition, we saw bearish sentiment across both heating oil and gasoil, which declined from -3.7k to -19k lots, and from -10k to -23k lots, over the same period. In contrast, RBOB futures was the most bullish on the positioning model, rising from -21.5k lots on 03 Mar up to just under 2.4k lots on 07 Mar, flipping net positive for the first time since mid-February.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Since positioning plateaued around -81k and -85k lots at the beginning of March, we have observed the decline accelerate over the past few days. On 06 Mar, positioning fell below -100k for the first time since early December 2024, now sitting at -110k lots as of 07 Mar. As in our last report, Brent and WTI remain the lowest on the positioning model this week, falling from -23k down to -42k lots, and -21k to -34k lots, respectively, between 03-07 Mar. In addition, we saw bearish sentiment across both heating oil and gasoil, which declined from -3.7k to -19k lots, and from -10k to -23k lots, over the same period. In contrast, RBOB futures was the most bullish on the positioning model, rising from -21.5k lots on 03 Mar up to just under 2.4k lots on 07 Mar, flipping net positive for the first time since mid-February.
Uncertainty is the Only Certainty The front-month Brent futures contract fell from an open of nearly $73/bbl last Monday to an intraday low of $68.30/bbl on Wednesday. While prices found support there, they oscillated between $68 and $72/bbl for the
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Brent crude futures are on track for another weekly loss. At the start of the week, we forecast the front-month Brent to be trading between $70-73.00/bbl, and Brent is supported above $70.50/bbl at the time of writing. Supply developments and
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.
This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.
The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.
Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.
Brent saw a weekly loss amid thin trading on account of International Energy (IE) Week in London. May’25 Brent futures dropped from $74.05/bbl at the open of 24 Feb to around $73.30/bbl on 28 Feb’s close. This week, we expect
While equities were getting hammered (see more in the detail), dated was on a tear! The April DFL rallied up to $1.58/bbl from just under a dollar before the move this morning. Traders noted mega short covering, “mental buying” said one trader. CFDs strengthened too with the 22-25 April contract jumping to $1.28/bbl, and the 31 March – 4 April contract rose to $2/bbl!
The May’25 Brent futures contract weakened from around $74.15/bbl at 1215 GMT down to an afternoon low of $73.25/bbl at 1625 GMT, retracing slightly to $73.50/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw a weekly gain but softened today, potentially as traders weigh up the impact of Trump’s tariffs scheduled for April 2. In the news today, the price of Russia’s ESPO crude blend has slumped to the lowest level since June 2024 as demand from Chinese state-owned firms has weakened, trading sources told Reuters. Cargoes of ESPO for April loadings are being traded at a discount of around $1.50/bbl against ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China. In other news, Russia’s tanker group Sovcomflot saw transportation volumes drop 16% y/y in 2024 to 63 million metric tons, Russian news agency Interfax reported. Primarily the result of US and European sanctions, Sovcomflot’s net profit dropped by 55% to $424 million in 2024. Finally, Ukrainian officials said the terms of the proposed mineral deal between Ukraine and the US have not yet been finalised, after Washington’s latest offer suggested it was demanding all of Ukraine’s natural resources income for years, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.86/bbl and $3.62/bbl.
Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) has been more quiet this fortnight, although it has weakened. The May’25 Sing 0.5% crack traded between $7.50 and $8.20/bbl, sitting just below $8/bbl on 28 Mar (at the time of writing). While flows have been quiet in the Sing VLSFO, this picked up towards the end of this week amid spread buying in the prompt. We continue to see sell-side interest in the crack. However, positioning is skewed towards selling and we expect volatility in the event of a bullish catalyst. Still, China’s Ministry of Commerce has issued its second batch of export quotas for clean oil products and LSFO, with the latter amounting to 5.2 million mt. This allocation brings total LSFO quotas for 2025 to 13.2 million mt, 10% up y/y, which may lend some weakness to VLSFO…
In March, markets once again found themselves being pulled to-and-fro as international trade developments, geopolitical tensions, and window shenanigans continued to challenge traders. Even Gunvor are pretty “risk off at the moment” according to discussion at the Ft Commodities Summit last week.
EARLY SING WINDOW- This morning, the front-month Brent futures contract ticked lower, from $74.15/bbl at 01:15 GMT to $73.75/bbl at 05:45 GMT. While the contract met resistance at the $74/bbl handle early morning, it saw a surge of volatility at around 08:30 GMT, following which prices moved from under $73.70/bbl to just shy of $74/bbl at 08:58 GMT (time of writing).
Bonjour to Zelenskyy, who received considerable validation from a slew of European leaders in Paris, emphasizing that now is “not the time” to begin lifting sanctions on Russia. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that the group aims to increase sanctions to “support the US initiative to bring Russia to the table through further pressure.” What is the US initiative? The US definitely wants a ceasefire that lasts longer than a business day, and it wants to achieve this without Europe. However, if Russia desires access to SWIFT (as per its latest demand), the US may have to collaborate more closely with the EU.
But based on direct discussions with various seniors in Switzerland the Europeans are still seeing a red mist and willing to let their industries die. But those who lead industries are so so ready to buy gas and forgive all. Note what the CEO of Total said yesterday about opening up but he is not the only one, he is just one willing to speak publicly.
Front-month Brent futures really did go from hanging on to the $70/bbl handle for dear life to soaring up to $74/bbl all in the same month. Before we bid farewell to the big box of uncertainty that March has been for oil prices, April starts with America’s “liberation day”, i.e., what President Trump has labelled his big tariff distribution day. A 25% tax on cars and car parts appears on the menu, with Trump promising it would lead to “tremendous growth” for the US. The world isn’t too convinced due to the danger this poses to a fully blown trade war, the threat which has dampened US customer confidence, increased inflation expectations, and led to the IMF forecasting a slowdown in the US, albeit ruling out a recession. Before we begin panicking, nothing can be said for sure – we might see a mysterious deal push all these tariffs into the distant future. Speaking of deals, the US is also dealing with an increasingly fragile ceasefire in the Black Sea. After reportedly agreeing to a maritime truce, Russia demanded the removal of sanctions on some of its banks, providing them access to Swift. This request was swiftly (sorry) rejected by Ukraine and the EU. It’s a bit unclear who is wielding the carrot and who is wielding the stick in this deal anymore, and it will be interesting to see what the US decides to do about this – maybe we’ll find out in a Signal chat next week.
May’25 Brent futures initially saw weakness this afternoon, declining from $73.80/bbl around 1300 GMT down to $73.23/bbl shortly after 1340 GMT, however, recovered to $73.90/bbl by 1735 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, President Zelenskiy said Russian artillery had damaged Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the city of Kherson, just two days after the truce on energy strikes was announced. The Ukrainian leader stated after a summit in Paris, “we are waiting for America’s reaction, since they told us that they will respond to violations”, according to Reuters. In other news, CNOOC reported an 11.4% rise in net profit for 2024 up to $19 billion. The increase in profit came as CNOOC’s net oil and gas production was up 7.2% y/y to 726.8mb of oil equivalent. Finally, Uganda’s $5 billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) has secured the first tranche of funding for the project for about $1 billion, with two additional funding tranches expected. The EACOP is a 1,443km-long pipeline to be built from Uganda to the Tanga port in Tanzania, projected to transport at least 216kb/d. Shareholders in EACOP include TotalEnergies with a 62% stake and CNOOC with an 8% stake. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.70/bbl and $3.33/bbl.
After a well-behaved trading session yesterday, PC and ADNOC crossed paths in the Dubai market and inverted the market again! Clearly nobody cares about an orderly market. Anybody who cares about things working properly awake anywhere or distorting in markets is an acceptable practice in key oil markets? ADNOC placed a bid at $74.80 immediately after PC offered at $74.75. Meanwhile, the Dubai physical premium hit its March high of $1.70… only to trip and fall 20c today to $1.50. And bam, they crossed again! A major told The Officials, “Ridiculous, how a producer bids and does not trade for the grade they produce and makes up the OSP”.
The May’25 Brent crude futures fell from the $74/bbl level on Thursday morning, reaching $73.50/bbl by 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Price action encountered a triple resistance zone at $74/bbl, where the 50-day and 100-day moving averages converged with the upper Bollinger Band. SAF production is on a steep climb but still projected to fall 30–45% short of 2030 targets due to high costs, underinvestment, and slowing project momentum, according to a new BCG report. China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical has opened a Calgary office and purchased its first Canadian crude cargo from Suncor. U.S. oil producers are facing geological and cost pressures in the Permian Basin, where rising gas and water output, aging wells, and less desirable acreage breakevens point to slowing production growth and a potential peak before 2030. Repsol and NEO Energy have agreed to merge their UK North Sea oil and gas operations into a new joint venture, NEO NEXT, aiming to boost output and unlock over $1 billion in synergies, as consolidation continues amid shifting regional economics and tax pressures. Uganda’s East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) has secured its first $1 billion tranche of bank financing, marking a key milestone for the TotalEnergies-led project as construction passes the halfway point on the 1,443-km export route to Tanzania’s coast. The Trump administration has called on oil and biofuel industry groups to negotiate a new consensus on U.S. biofuel policy, aiming to prevent the political friction that defined earlier Renewable Fuel Standard debates. Finally, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads are at $0.70/bbl and $3.20/bbl respectively.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
Brent futures soared to above $74 in a sudden afternoon rally, hitting $74.16/bbl at 15:51 GMT like a market jolted awake, then declined back to $73.92/bbl by close. The trigger? A Black Sea ceasefire announcement that lasted about as long as a Snapchat story.
After three days of tough negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea – or so the US thought. Within hours of the US announcing this agreement, the Kremlin said it would only commit to doing so once sanctions on several Russian banks were lifted. These demands include a restoration of the state agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank’s access to Swift, which would require EU approval….oh boy, will this get dragged on.
The May’25 Brent futures contract traded sideways this afternoon, increasing from $73.60/bbl at 1230 GMT up to $74.15/bbl at 1550 GMT, before declining to $73.65/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have fluctuated as Russia and Ukraine have now accused one another of flouting the ceasefire on energy strikes reached on 25 Mar.
The major propane benchmarks were ultimately supported in the fortnight ending 26 Mar as we saw increasing strength in crude oil prices…
The children didn’t misbehave! Chats in Lausanne with various market sources raised the issue of disorderly markets. There is an inherent duty when operating a marketplace, more so if it is regulated by IOSCO, to have proper systems in place and market order is a key requirement.
The front-month Brent futures contract ticked up slightly from $73.10/bbl at 07:40 GMT to $73.55/bbl at 09:50 GMT. While this level attracted some selling, perhaps from longs taking profit, the flat price has since risen to $73.65/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing)
As of the week ending 21 March, our momentum table shows Brent contracts seeing declines in exchange traded volumes for the May tenor, but strong growth in June and July tenors. The gasoil, heating oil and RBOB contracts saw either decreases or only marginal increases, while WTI saw the largest declines across tenors.
Big news out of Riyadh! The US announced that both Russia and Ukraine agreed to a truce in the Black Sea and ‘will try their very best’ to avoid attacking each other’s energy infrastructure. Pinky promise! Bears are omnivores and enjoy carrots too, and the Kremlin would be well advised to take sanctions relief where they can get it. To this end, the US stated it would restore Russia’s access to global agricultural and fertiliser markets, while the Kremlin emphasised the need for sanctions relief on banks and companies involved in the food trade. It only took them several days to come up with this! The road to peace is a piecemeal one, pun intended, but welcome nonetheless. As Uncle Sam might put it to Putin and Zelenskyy, I want you guys to stop fighting! And the market reacted swiftly to the news! Brent futures surged to above $73.50/bbl in the morning before slumping in the afternoon by about $1 to close at $72.76/bbl.
M1 Brent futures swiftly bounced higher last week, climbing from the $70/bbl handle to open at $73/bbl on 25 March. On 24 March, prices closed above the 30-day moving average (white line), which has now flipped from resistance to support at $72.50/bbl. A break below this level could open the door for a retest of the 10-day moving average (blue line) at $71.45/bbl. On the upside, the 50-day ($74.57/bbl) and 100-day moving averages ($74.30/bbl) (green and purple lines, respectively) form a double resistance zone, a level that also acted as key support during February’s lows. A decisive break above this area could signal renewed bullish momentum.
The May’25 Brent futures contract reversed this morning’s gains, falling from $73.55 around 1345 GMT down to $72.50/bbl at 1620 GMT, inching up to $72.85/bbl by 1755 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have seen a downward correction this afternoon amid news of a Russia-Ukraine truce at sea and potentially some small profit-taking on recent Brent strength.
The North Sea Dated Brent physical differential was implied quite stably mid-month as it crept down below 80c/bbl. It then dropped more severely to 46c/bbl on 20 Mar as the front and back of the Forties curve were offered by a major, although the middle was bid, with some offers coming in for back-end Midland. The diff was implied higher to 75c/bbl on 24 Mar as we saw a major bidding on the Forties curve up to $0.80/bbl with the back offered high by a refiner.
The weakness we have seen in the Brent/Dubai complex in recent months has continued, with the Apr’25 contract steadily declining from around -$0.90/bbl on March 11 to -$1.35/bbl by March 20. This downward trend accelerated sharply on the morning of 20 Mar, following reports of new US sanctions targeting Chinese teapot refiner Shandong Luqing Petrochemical for purchasing significant volumes of Iranian crude oil. As the market weighed up this headline, Apr’25 Brent/Dubai plunged to -$2.03/bbl by the afternoon of 20 Mar — marking the lowest level for the M1 contract since early February…
Once again in the Dubai window, ADNOC and PetroChina crossed in ways that defy market logic! ADNOC was bidding $74.67 while PetroChina hit Vitol’s bids at $74.65. And by the way for anyone here, these crosses not only mess up the physical cost to billions of consumers and large producers BUT also affect the values of the balmos. All the derivative pricing is unclear. This has not been a one off but the bid/offer crosses are distorting the balmos since March 7th. This is unprecedented!
The May’25 Brent futures has recovered well from initial weakness this morning, trading down from $73.10/bbl at 0535 GMT down to $72.80/bbl at 0620 GMT, before strengthening to $73.30/bbl at 1040 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices remain supported as traders evaluate the impact of Russia-Ukraine negotiations and geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
Venezuela is in trouble! In a move he dramatically called “Liberation Day in America,” Trump slapped a 25% “secondary tariff” on any country buying Venezuelan oil and gas. He accused Venezuela of “purposefully and deceitfully” sending to the US “tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals”. Never mind that Venezuela just agreed to resume U.S. deportation flights, with 199 people deported from the US landed in Venezuela today.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in distillates, naphtha, and NGL swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
May’25 Brent futures initially dipped from $72.60/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $72.15/bbl shortly after 1300 GMT. Flat price then strengthened to this afternoon’s high of $73.15/bbl at 1610 GMT, moderating to $72.85/bbl by 1745 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, President Trump has threatened to hit countries that buy Venezuelan oil and gas with a 25% tariff, expected to come into effect on April 2. The move aims to cut a major source of revenue for Nicolas Maduro’s regime in Caracas while putting further pressure on China, a major purchaser of Venezuelan crude, as per Bloomberg. Furthermore, the Trump administration has extended Chevron’s deadline to halt its operations in Venezuela to May 27. In other news, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said that so far “there have been no other orders from the president” to strike energy infrastructure in Ukraine, according to Russian news agency TASS. This came as the Russian Defence Ministry stated today that Ukraine conducted two drone attacks on the Valulka gas distribution station on 22 Mar, not specifiying whether the station remains operational. Finally, the fire at the drone-hit Kavkazskaya depot in the Krasnodar region of Russia has now raged for a fifth day, the regional administration said. According to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, last year suppliers delivered at least 130,000 tons of oil per month via Kavkazskaya, a key facility that delivers Russian crude to the Caspian pipeline. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.60/bbl and $3.05/bbl.
In the week ending 18 Mar, combined open interest (OI) across both Brent and WTI futures increased more than 3x the previous week. Combined OI rose by 71.8mb (+1.66% w/w). This is the largest increase in OI for Brent + WTI for 10 weeks. Interestingly, WTI has seen reductions in total OI for the past two weeks and Brent has seen two additions. The May’25 Brent contract rose from sub-$70.00/bbl on 11 Mar to fail to maintain strength of around $72.00/bbl on 18 Mar before it closed at below $80.40/bbl as Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to halt strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days.
The naphtha market started off the fortnight strong, however, ultimately saw lacklustre performance. The Apr’25 NWE naphtha crack climbed from around -$2.70/bbl on 17 March to a fortnightly high of -$2.45/bbl by 19 March. However, this was short-lived as the market reversed, dropping to -$3.45/bbl by the morning of 24 March, approaching the -$3.50/bbl support level last tested in early March. Exchange-traded open interest in the M1 NWE naphtha crack inched up by 9% this fortnight to 22.8mb on 20 Mar, around 23.5% above the 5-year average for this time of year.
Shenanigans with one of the world’s benchmarks continue with PetroChina and ADNOC seemingly intent on destroying the reliability of the Dubai index. How can the number be trusted to be used as a benchmark to power the Saudi OSPs, Kuwait, and other Gulf producers when sellers offer Dubai below where buyers bid for Dubai? How can an inversion happen? You tell me, but this thing is broken and for it to break, one could question how in charge is the host of the wagering establishment. This mechanism is too important for no one to be in charge to ensure best market practices.
The May’25 Brent futures contract started the week strong, increasing from an overnight low of $71.80/bbl at 0330 GMT up to $72.60/bbl at 1040 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have seen sustained bullish sentiment as the markets weigh up the impact of fresh US sanctions on entities involved in the Iranian oil trade. In the news today, US and Russian officials have begun talks in Saudi Arabia aimed at making progress toward ending conflict in Ukraine, as per Reuters. Before securing a wider agreement, Washington is looking to negotiate a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea to allow free flow of shipping in the region. In other news, Sinopec reported a 16.8% decline in 2024 net profit compared to a drop of 9.9% in 2023, citing lower crude oil prices and the increased development of the EV industry. Sinopec expects crude oil production in 2025 to be 280mb, or around 767kb/d. Finally, Iraq is in talks with several companies to secure two floating storage regasification units by early June in an attempt to address power shortages, according to Bloomberg. After the US decided in early March to not renew a waiver allowing Iraq to buy electricity from Iran, this has left Iraq in need of more gas, with imports covering around 50% of the country’s demand during peak time, the Iraqi oil minister stated on Sunday. At the time of writing, the May/June’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.56/bbl and $2.78/bbl, respectively.
The same faces rolled into the North Sea window again! Exxon and Shell have been playing ‘will they won’t they’ for several sessions and finally they got down to it! Exxon lifted Shell’s offer for a 2-4 Apr FOB Forties at Dated +$0.25, whereupon Shell immediately withdrew its other Forties offering. Again, Exxon wasn’t picky about the freight situation and was also bidding for a CIF Forties, which Shell was happy to offer too. Shell also tried to tempt the Americans with a Midland, but Exxon knew what it wanted today and only pursued the Forties.
The May’25 Brent futures contract strengthened from this afternoon’s low of $72.60/bbl at 1340 GMT up to a touch under $73.20/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Fresh US sanctions on Iran continue to stoke bullish sentiment in crude oil prices. In the news today, the US Department of Interior has announced its plan this week to reopen 82% of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska for leasing and energy project development. Last year, the Biden administration had banned drilling on around 28 million acres of Alaskan federal land, estimated to hold approximately 895mb of recoverable oil. In other news, Kazakhstan’s oil output has reached another record high this month on the back of oilfield expansion, according to Reuters. Oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan reached about 2.16mb/d during the period 1-16 Mar, compared with 2.12mb/d average output in February. Meanwhile, India’s dependence on crude oil imports is expected to hit a record high in the fiscal year ending 31 Mar, 2025. According to oil ministry data reported by The Indian Express, India imported 88.2% of the crude it consumed in the April 2024-February 2025 period, up from 87.7% in the same period from 2023 to 2024. Finally, Germany has seized an oil tanker belonging to the Russian shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea in January, the German magazine Spiegel reported. The tanker was travelling under the flag of Panama and was carrying about 100,000 tons of crude oil. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.55/bbl and $2.86/bbl.
As an update on yesterday’s window shenanigans, let’s remember that PetroChina has been delivering Murban and Upper Zakum into the window. And this means PC buys a lot of Abu Dhabi crude and also means ADNOC delivers a lot of oil to the Chinese. Otherwise, PC would not be able to deliver Abu Dhabi crude to Vitol as they have been doing. They clearly trade with one another, just not in the window! In today’s riveting activity, there was no crossing, but the two were still stubbornly avoiding each other while matching in price. This obviously, should not happen among reasonable adults. And today, PC pulled the Uno reverse card and switched to declare an Oman to Vitol, rather than the deluge of Upper Zakum and Murban we’ve seen up to now. No more UAE crude for you! But anyway – Vitol, remove that beret! Surely 9 mil bbl of Abu Dhabi crude in 15 trading sessions should be tasty enough!
The front-month Brent futures contract recorded weakness this morning after strengthening on news of additional US sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Prices initially climbed to $72.30/bbl at 08:15 GMT, but continue to see resistance above $72/bbl and weakened to just under $71.70/bbl at the time of writing (10:40 GMT).
