NGLs

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract ultimately saw marginal strength this afternoon, increasing from $75.60/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $76.05/bbl at 1715 GMT, before tapering to $75.85/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Bullish sentiment has pushed crude oil prices higher to start the week despite US tariff concerns, with traders seeing good buying opportunity after last week’s decline. In the news today, India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said the country plans to launch new oil and gas licensing rounds as early as this week, with a meeting between US President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi scheduled later this week. In other news, Russia’s crude output fell to 8.962mb/d in January, 16kb/d below its target under the OPEC+ supply agreement, according to Energy Ministry figures seen by Bloomberg. Russia has pledged to submit an updated schedule for oil production cuts to compensate for past overproduction, though none has been published. Finally, Moldova’s pro-Russian breakaway Transdniestria region is expected to begin receiving natural gas supplies under a loan provided by Moscow, as per Reuters. This followed widespread power cuts after Russian natural gas shipments to the region were halted on 1 Jan. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.46/bbl and $2.75/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price was lower on Friday afternoon after testing the $75/bbl resistance level, coming off to $74.35/bbl by 17:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude is on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, with players taking profit and selling into any rallies amid heightened volatility on the back of Trump’s actions. In the news, Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, has resumed regular light crude imports due to declining domestic production, as stalled trade with Iran and a gas supply shortage have worsened blending bottlenecks, despite increased exports and slight overall output growth. The European Union is discussing a deal to partially lift sanctions on Syria’s oil industry and banks, including removing bans on crude imports and energy financing, as part of efforts to support Syria’s transition under new President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, while some EU nations push for conditions limiting Russian influence in the country. Singapore-listed oil company Interra Resources is seeking legal advice to assess whether its subsidiaries violated foreign laws by supplying oil to military-controlled Myanmar, following allegations from activist group Justice for Myanmar, while also reviewing the adequacy of its risk controls amid Western sanctions on the nation. Chevron is accelerating the expansion of Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield, reaching 900kb/d in early February – well ahead of schedule – with full capacity of 1mb/d expected by June, complicating Kazakhstan’s efforts to stay within its OPEC+ production quota. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $2.46/bbl respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price came off below the $75/bbl level on Thursday afternoon, trading at $74.42/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). As the US unveiled fresh sanctions on Iran, the first move under the Trump administration, prices spiked from $74.35/bbl to highs of $75.38/bbl before quickly retreating to $74.62/bbl. In other news, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signaled that he will not block the Rosebank oil and gas project, despite a court ruling against it, reaffirming his stance that existing licences will not be revoked while maintaining that oil and gas will remain part of the UK’s energy mix for decades. Following fresh US sanctions imposed on 10 January, Russia’s flagship Urals crude oil has dropped below the $60/bbl price cap for the first time since December. A new poll shows 82% of Canadians support imposing export taxes on oil if Donald Trump implements tariffs on Canadian goods, despite opposition from Alberta and Saskatchewan leaders, highlighting growing public backing for using Canada’s oil exports as leverage in potential trade conflicts with the U.S. Oil and gas traders are likely to seek waivers from Beijing over China’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., where 4 tankers, carrying 6mb of WTI and ANS crude, and 2 LNG vessels are currently en route to China. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.47/bbl and $2.65/bbl respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract found support at just shy of $76.00/bbl at around 0300 GMT and strengthened through the morning to $76.55/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). President Trump issued executive orders on 1 Feb, which will take effect on 4 Feb, including a 25% on most goods from Mexico and Canada, a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Goldman Sachs sees minimal price impact, keeping its forecast unchanged after raising it last week, with its Brent forecast for 2025 raised to $78/bbl from $76/bbl. Iraq approved a budget amendment to restart Kurdish oil exports via Turkey, doubling payments to the Kurdish region to $16/bbl. PM Al-Sudani urged swift action after a year-long export halt over disputes. Nigeria aims to boost oil and condensate output to 2.7 mb/d by 2027 from 1.67 mb/d in December. This would allow Nigeria to remain within its OPEC+ crude quota as it will likely be a strong addition to condensate production. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.87/bbl and $3.75/bbl, respectively.

The prompt April Brent Futures contract has seen a volatile afternoon, initially trading down from $75.09/bbl at noon to a low of $74.17 at 14:20 GMT before rallying to $76.65/bbl at 15:35 GMT and retracing some of its gains to print at $76.25/bbl at the time of writing (17:20 GMT). In headlines, Trump is expected to sign an executive order intensifying pressure on Iran, within which Iranian crude exports will be targeted. A presidential memorandum will direct the US Treasury to impose “maximum economic pressure” through sanctions and enforcement on violators, aiming to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero. Iranian oil revenue totalled $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion in 2022 according to US EIA data, with 2024 output at its highest since 2018, per OPEC. In other news, Equinor suspended production at the 755 kb/d Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea due to a power outage. Repair work is underway, and a restart plan is being developed, according to a company spokesperson. At the time of writing, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent Futures spreads are at $0.66/bbl and $3.30/bbl respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract witnessed a weaker afternoon, softening from $77.20/bbl at 14:10 GMT to $75.15/bbl at 15:25 GMT. The contract found support at this level and climbed to $75.75/bbl at 17:20 GMT (the time of writing).

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract found support at just shy of $76.00/bbl at around 0300 GMT and strengthened through the morning to $76.55/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). President Trump issued executive orders on 1 Feb, which will take effect on 4 Feb, including a 25% on most goods from Mexico and Canada, a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Goldman Sachs sees minimal price impact, keeping its forecast unchanged after raising it last week, with its Brent forecast for 2025 raised to $78/bbl from $76/bbl. Iraq approved a budget amendment to restart Kurdish oil exports via Turkey, doubling payments to the Kurdish region to $16/bbl. PM Al-Sudani urged swift action after a year-long export halt over disputes. Nigeria aims to boost oil and condensate output to 2.7 mb/d by 2027 from 1.67 mb/d in December. This would allow Nigeria to remain within its OPEC+ crude quota as it will likely be a strong addition to condensate production. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.87/bbl and $3.75/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract fell to around $75.25/bbl at 1500 GMT before strengthening to $75.95/bbl at 1700 GMT (time of writing). The PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually, keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while core PCE increased 0.16% in December and 2.8% year-over-year. The 6-month annualized rate fell to 2.3%, the lowest in 2024. Libya’s NOC, under new acting chairman Massoud Suleman, aims to increase oil production and enhance transparency while considering office closures to streamline operations. Suleman also plans to work with authorities to end crude-for-fuel swaps and secure a stable budget for refined petroleum products. Exxon Mobil exceeded earnings expectations in Q4 despite lower oil prices, driven by strong production growth in Guyana and the Permian Basin. The company is increasing capital spending to over $30 billion annually, aiming to lower breakeven costs and sustain profitability while expanding LNG and crude production projects globally. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.77/bbl and $3.43/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed from $75.40/bbl at 1400 GMT to see resistance around $76.50/bbl at 1540 GMT and is supported at just shy of $76.00/bbl at 1738 GMT (time of writing). Petrobras boosted reserves to 11.4 billion barrels in 2023, adding 1.3 billion barrels while producing 900 million. It plans to invest $111 billion from 2025-2029, with $77 billion for oil and gas exploration. Ukraine launched multiple drone strikes on Russian energy facilities, including a key oil refinery supplying Putin’s war effort. Oil flows at Russia’s Ust-Luga port were reportedly halted, supporting Kyiv’s claims of a successful attack on a pumping station. Shell expects an 85% reserve replacement ratio (RRR) for last year, indicating it replaced 85% of the oil and gas it produced. Over three years, its RRR averaged 108%. The company projects 2024 reserves at 9.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent. A judge ruled the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea unlawful, siding with Greenpeace and Uplift over missing emissions assessments. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.79/bbl and $3.38/bbl, respectively.