Liquified Natural Gas (LNG)

The Apr’25 TTF futures contract fell to its lowest level in five months this week, declining from €47.40/MWh on 21 Feb to an intraday low of just over €36.50/MWh on 7 Mar. The contract met support here and climbed to €38.80/MWh at the time of writing (11:55 GMT) on 7 Mar. This weakness spilt over to the Far East, with the Apr’25 Japan/Korea Marker (JKM) swap falling from $14.05/MMBtu on 21 Feb to $13.20/MMBtu on 26 Feb, where it met support and jumped to $13.85/MMBtu. However, the contract weakened again to $13.25/MMBtu on 6 Mar. Nonetheless, JKM was more supported than TTF this week, with the Apr’25 Basis differential (JKM vs TTF) rallying from -$0.50/MMBtu on 20 Feb to $1.30/MMBtu on 6 Mar.

The Mar’25 TTF futures contract rallied to over €58/MWh on 10 Feb, its highest level since January 2023, amid greater withdrawals from European gas storage and colder weather, but it has since retraced to €47.50/MWh on 20 Feb. The soon-to-be-prompt Apr’25 TTF swap contract moved similarly, briefly touching €58/MWh on 10 Feb before retracing to €47.50/MWh. Since our last report, European gas supplies have fallen by around 8% to 42% of total capacity (481 TWh), as per Gas Infrastructure Europe. However, any support for TTF these continual draws was overtaken by bearish sentiment due to Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Additionally, the EU is now reportedly planning to relax its LNG refilling requirements, which may lend further bearish sentiment.

The front-month (Mar’25) TTF swap contract continued to strengthen in the fortnight ending 7 February, climbing from under €50/MWh on 23 Jan to €54.36/MWh on 6 Feb.

Newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order directing the federal government to prioritise the development and production of natural resources in Alaska, including the nation’s LNG project, citing their “critical national importance” and “economic and national security benefits.”

Ukraine has ended Russian gas transit to Europe as its 2019 agreement with Gazprom expired, marking a historic step in reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian energy, though it has led to power cuts in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region. While alternative energy sources are expected to mitigate the impact for most EU countries, Russia-friendly leaders in Slovakia and Hungary have criticized the decision amid rising costs.

European countries reliant on Russian gas are scrambling to find ways to pay for supplies after new US sanctions on Gazprombank, which could disrupt payments and halt gas flows, particularly affecting Hungary and Slovakia. Potential solutions include waivers or alternate payment mechanisms, but geopolitical complexities and the impending transition to a Trump administration add uncertainty.

The M1 Henry Hub natural gas futures rallied to $3.563/MMBtu on 22 Nov, although the benchmark natural gas futures contract appears to be meeting resistance at this level. According to LSEG, the amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating US LNG export plants was on track to rise to a 10-month high this week….

The Dec’24 TTF rebounded in early November due to winter demand concerns, Norwegian outages, and the looming Ukraine-Russia gas transit expiration. European LNG imports rose for the first time in 10 months, while Asia’s declined. The Dec’24 JKM softened to just above $13/MMBtu on mild temperatures and secure North Asian supply…

LNG prices continue to be affected by a regional escalation of the war in Gaza over the past fortnight….

LNG prices continue to be affected by a regional escalation of the war in Gaza over the past fortnight….

Government and company officials are in discussions about potential imports of gas from Azerbaijan through Russia and Ukraine to replace a transit deal that expires at the end of the year. Negotiations were continuing as of last week, Bloomberg previously reported.

QatarEnergy’s joint venture, which aims to convert the Golden Pass LNG import terminal in Texas into a large-scale export facility, has requested a three-year extension from US authorities to complete the project by 30 November 2029

QatarEnergy’s joint venture, which aims to convert the Golden Pass LNG import terminal in Texas into a large-scale export facility, has requested a three-year extension from US authorities to complete the project by 30 November 2029

The expansion of LNG exports is responsible for scores of premature deaths and nearly $1bn in annual health costs, according to a new report from the green groups Greenpeace and Sierra Club. The report links air pollution from LNG exports to an estimated 60 premature deaths and $957m in total health costs each year.

ExxonMobil and QatarNergy are delaying the start-up of their $10bn joint venture Golden Pass LNG export project in Texas to late 2025 from 1H25 after work at the facility stalled following the bankruptcy of the lead contractor. Zachry Holdings.