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Brent softened this week as disbelief continued to be suspended for the promised (read: threatened) tariffs from the US, and the market digested and rebalanced following the rally to over $82.00/bbl last week on the news of new sanctions on Russia and Venezuela that included the Russian dark fleet.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract initially saw strength this afternoon, steadily climbing to $79.60/bbl around 1515 GMT, however, prices sold-off shortly after 1610 GMT down to $78.10/bbl at 1640 GMT, retracing to $78.65/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices faced bearish sentiment after US President Trump urged OPEC to lower oil prices and reiterated his tariff threats, as per Bloomberg. Trump also pledged to ensure Europe’s energy security while asserting that the US no longer needed Canadian oil and gas. Meanwhile, EIA data released today at 1700 GMT for the week to 17 Jan showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 1.02mb. In the news today, Donald Trump’s tariff threats aimed at strongarming Russia into ending the war in Ukraine have been badly received by some Russian politicians, with Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, stating Trump’s actions suggested he would not be able to bring peace to Ukraine, according to Reuters. In other news, a large part of Russia’s oil tanker fleet is being forced to change the flag they sail under after pressure from US and UK sanctions, as per Bloomberg. The Barbados ship registry said that by the end of January it will have asked 46 ships to remove the country’s flag as a result of the sanctions, while Panama’s ship registry said earlier this month it had begun to de-list 68 US-sanctioned vessels. In macroeconomic news, US jobless claims data released at 1330 GMT today edged higher to 223k, compared to a forecast of 221k. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.78/bbl and $3.69/bbl, respectively.
After this morning’s strength, Mar’25 Brent futures declined from just under $79.90/bbl at 1120 GMT down to this afternoon’s low of $78.87/bbl at 1500 GMT, recovering to $79.45/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment amid waning geopolitical risk, with the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire likely to be extended beyond next week, as per Bloomberg. In the news today, US President Donald Trump said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end the war in Ukraine, Reuters reports. Trump added that tariffs could also be applied to “other participating countries”, currently threatening a 10% tariff on China. In other news, Motiva’s 630kb/d Port Arthur refinery on the Texas Gulf Coast has shut multiple units due to winter storms. Meanwhile, the ports of Houston and Galveston remain shut as Freeport opens, as per Bloomberg. Finally, CNOOC said today that its net oil and gas production was about 720mb of oil equivalent for 2024, setting a record high for the sixth consecutive year. The company aims to maintain stable capital expenditure for 2025 while reaching a net production target of 760mb to 780mb. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.88/bbl and $4.17/bbl, respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Mar’25 Brent futures flat price clawed higher on Tuesday afternoon, rising from $78.50/bbl at 14:00 GMT to nearly $79.60/bbl by 16:45 GMT before falling to $79.16/bbl by 17:40 GMT (time of writing). In the news, a rare winter storm across the U.S. South has disrupted natural gas and oil production, strained the Texas power grid, and halted LNG exports. Despite the Houthis’ announced pullback, insurers remain reluctant to cover Red Sea transit due to ongoing security risks, delaying a full return to the Suez Canal route and keeping freight rates elevated, though a gradual decline is expected. Trump’s tariff threats on Canadian oil have widened the gap between U.S. and Canadian energy stocks, with Toronto-listed names underperforming as investors shy away from policy uncertainty, while analysts warn of further downside if tariffs are implemented. Serica Energy remains committed to investing in the UK North Sea despite high taxes, seeing opportunities in the market, but emphasises the need for a more sustainable tax regime to support long-term oil and gas development. U.S. energy mergers may slow in 2025 as deal sizes shrink due to fewer available targets and regulatory delays, but smaller and mid-cap producers are still expected to pursue M&A for scale, with cost-saving measures like longer laterals helping to improve drilling economics. Finally, the front (Mar/Apr) and 6-month (Mar/Sep) Brent futures spreads are at $0.81/bbl and $4.05/bbl respectively.
The Mar’25 RBOB futures outright price reached above the upper Bollinger band on 15 Jan to a high of $2.20/gal and has since corrected to $2.14/gal on 21 Jan. The cracks have been fairly robust, and the Mar’25 RBOB futures crack (RBBR) has been gaining strength slowly this month as it rose from seeing support at the lower Bollinger band on 10 Jan to seeing some trepidation at the 20-day moving average on 20 Jan, although it broke past this on 21 Jan, to $10.35/bbl at the time of writing.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract started to recover this afternoon, strengthening around 50c since this morning up to $80.93/bbl at 1325 GMT. However, Brent flat price then sold-off at US open (1330 GMT) down to $79.45/bbl around 1400 GMT, retracing to $80.08/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have continued to decline as traders anticipate policy announcements from US President Donald Trump, including plans to boost domestic oil production and resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the news today, Chinese crude imports from Russia rose by 1% y/y to a record high of 2.17mb/d, data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed. Higher imports from Russia potentially demonstrate Chinese refiners’ appetite for cheap cargoes amid weak refining margins. Meanwhile, crude imports from Saudi Arabia dipped by 9% y/y to 1.57mb/d. In other news, Chevron has expressed interest in oil and gas exploration offshore Greece, the Greek Ministry of Energy and Environment stated today. Greece said that it would imminently announce an international tender and decide on the particular area designated for exploration this week. Finally, the cost to hire an oil supertanker on key routes to China has doubled since the newly imposed US sanctions on Russia, as per Bloomberg. Daily rates for VLCCs on the Middle East-to-China route (TD3C) surged 112% to $57.6k in the week to 17 Jan, while rates on the US Gulf-to-China route (TD22) soared 102% to around $55.5k. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.99/bbl and $4.70/bbl, respectively.
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The Mar’25 Brent futures contract weakened further this afternoon, falling from $81.35/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $80.57/bbl at 1600 GMT, before recovering to $81.15/bbl at 1755 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have faced some downward pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease, following Israel’s security cabinet’s approval of the Gaza ceasefire deal. In the news today, China’s oil refinery throughput in 2024 saw its first decline in over two decades excluding 2022, as refineries scaled back operations amid stagnant fuel demand and weak margins. Throughput dropped 1.6% year-over-year to 14.13 million barrels per day. In other news, a Reuters review of US sanctions showed six Russian oil tankers still under construction were included, the first time Washington is known to have banned tankers before they set sail. In addition, Russia’s exports of refined oil products fell by 9.1% y/y in 2024 to 113.7 million metric tonnes amid drone attacks on refineries and export bans. Finally, Italy’s natural gas consumption fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, dropping by 2.5% to the lowest level in more than 15 years, power market manage GME stated. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.21/bbl and $5.37/bbl, respectively.
Mar’25 Brent futures saw oscillating price action this afternoon, increasing from $81.20/bbl at 1230 GMT to nearly $82.00/bbl at 1425 GMT, before falling to $80.45/bbl at 1630 and recovering to $81.45/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, a strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran will not include a mutual defence clause like those Russia has signed with North Korea and Belarus, according to TASS citing an Iranian envoy. In other news, advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are readying a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate Russia-Ukraine diplomacy in coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, Bloomberg reported. One set of policy recommendations suggested good-faith measures to benefit sanctioned Russian oil producers, on the condition that an end to the Ukraine war is in sight. Meanwhile, a second recommendation proposed to ramp up pressure by building on the sanctions. In addition, Scott Bessent said the US is poised to increase sanctions on Russian oil companies to force them to the negotiating table with Ukraine, according to Financial Times. Finally, BP plans to cut some 4,700 jobs and 3,000 contractor roles this year to reduce costs, the supermajor told Reuters. These cuts would be equal to around 5% of the global workforce of around 90,000 employees at BP, aiming to cut at least $2 billion in costs by 2026. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.40/bbl and $5.72/bbl, respectively.
As energy inflation is no longer his problem, Biden is happy to put as many obstacles before Trump 2.0 as possible and is deciding now, to really crack down on Russian energy revenue. On Friday, prompt Brent reached $80 per barrel for the first time since October, as new sanction measures were announced. The measures against Russia include sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, and the blacklisting of 183 vessels involved in Russian energy exports. Sanctions have been dictating the strength as players may not want short risk as Trump heads into office with all tariff threats outstanding. In an ironic act of God, a cold Russian air mass may be out to seek revenge on the US energy infrastructure. The Siberian Express is chugging down into the lower 48, and the strong Canadian pressure is pushing this bitter cold, low, dry air into the Rockies and straight to Texas. Weather forecasts are as varied as they are confusing, but the freeze is heading south, and the whole state may freeze.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract saw steady strength this afternoon, rising from just over $80/bbl at 1200 GMT up to this afternoon’s high of $81.60/bbl at 1630 GMT, moderating to $81.40/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). EIA stats released at 1530 GMT for the week ending 10 Jan showed a lower-than-expected draw of 1.96mb in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a Gaza ceasefire deal, centred on the release of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, as per Bloomberg. The deal outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase and includes the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, according to Reuters. In other news, Russia targeted Ukrainian gas infrastructure and other energy facilities today, with President Zelenskyy claiming Russia launched over 40 missiles during a morning attack and more than 70 drones overnight. Ukraine’s oil and gas company Naftogaz said there were no outages and “gas supplies to population were uninterrupted”, while the Russian Defence Ministry claimed their attacks successfully hit all designated targets on energy facilities. Finally, OPEC has released its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, forecasting global oil demand to expand by 1.4mb/d in 2025. OPEC projects OECD oil demand to grow by about 0.1mb/d while non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.3mb/d, with this rate of growth expected to continue in 2026. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.27/bbl and $5.34/bbl, respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract saw some weakness this afternoon, declining from almost $80.90/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $80.15/bbl at 1800 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief is now pushing for the European Union to lower the $60/bbl price cap on Russian oil, Kallas told Bloomberg in an interview. In other news, swarms of Ukrainian drones attacked energy and military facilities across central Russia and the Volga region overnight, according to a Ukrainian Security Service official. Drones set Rosneft’s PJSC Saratov oil refinery on fire as well as two chemical plants in the Tula and Bryansk regions, according to Bloomberg. Finally, Peru’s Bretana crude oil is gaining popularity in the US, with the first cargo discharging in the US Gulf Coast this month as US refiners seek alternatives to Mexican heavy crude, as per Reuters. Kpler and LSEG ship tracking data showed a vessel transported about 300kb of Bretana from Brazil to Houston on 2 Jan, with the cargo bought by oil major Shell. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.11/bbl and $4.76/bbl, respectively.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract ultimately saw weakness this afternoon amid rangebound price action, seeing a decline from around $81.10/bbl at 1200 GMT down to this afternoon’s low of $80.37/bbl at 1425 GMT, before recovering to $80.90/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, an Indian government source said the country has halted trade with US-sanctioned Russian companies and tankers, but the country does not expect disruption to Russian crude supplies for a two-month wind-down period, Reuters reports. In other news, the German government is considering selling its entire 99.12% stake in the $18.8 billion energy company Uniper, however, wishes to pursue a partial stake sale of around 25% as a preferred option, as per Reuters. Parties that have been approached about a full sale include New York-headquartered Brookfield. Germany’s Finance Ministry have yet to reveal a timeframe or structure for the potential deal. Finally, the Russian Defence Ministry claimed on Telegram that Ukraine attempted a drone attack on TurkStream gas pipeline this weekend, sending nine drones to hit the Russkaya compressor station in the Russian region of Krasnodar, with no damage reported. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.35/bbl and $5.52/bbl, respectively.
