Gasoline

Gasoline is a key fuel for automobiles, playing a central role in powering personal and commercial vehicles, underpinning the mobility that fuels economic activities around the world.

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Gasoline report

Gasoline Report: Tariff Tantrums

The Mar’25 RBOB futures contract weakened towards the end of January, declining to 2.05c/gal on 27 Jan. However, the contract gained support into the new month amid fears of tightening medium sour crude oil supplies in US refineries following a short-lived tariff on Canadian and Mexican oil imports into the US.

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European Window: Brent Stabilises Around $76.05/bbl

The prompt April Brent Futures contract has seen a volatile afternoon, initially trading down from $75.09/bbl at noon to a low of $74.17 at 14:20 GMT before rallying to $76.65/bbl at 15:35 GMT and retracing some of its gains to print at $76.25/bbl at the time of writing (17:20 GMT). In headlines, Trump is expected to sign an executive order intensifying pressure on Iran, within which Iranian crude exports will be targeted. A presidential memorandum will direct the US Treasury to impose “maximum economic pressure” through sanctions and enforcement on violators, aiming to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero. Iranian oil revenue totalled $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion in 2022 according to US EIA data, with 2024 output at its highest since 2018, per OPEC. In other news, Equinor suspended production at the 755 kb/d Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea due to a power outage. Repair work is underway, and a restart plan is being developed, according to a company spokesperson. At the time of writing, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent Futures spreads are at $0.66/bbl and $3.30/bbl respectively.

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European Window: Brent Softens to $75.75/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract witnessed a weaker afternoon, softening from $77.20/bbl at 14:10 GMT to $75.15/bbl at 15:25 GMT. The contract found support at this level and climbed to $75.75/bbl at 17:20 GMT (the time of writing).

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New Publication – ETFs Report

Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, and BOIL. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.

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European Window: Brent Strengthens to Over $76.40/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract found support at just shy of $76.00/bbl at around 0300 GMT and strengthened through the morning to $76.55/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). President Trump issued executive orders on 1 Feb, which will take effect on 4 Feb, including a 25% on most goods from Mexico and Canada, a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Goldman Sachs sees minimal price impact, keeping its forecast unchanged after raising it last week, with its Brent forecast for 2025 raised to $78/bbl from $76/bbl. Iraq approved a budget amendment to restart Kurdish oil exports via Turkey, doubling payments to the Kurdish region to $16/bbl. PM Al-Sudani urged swift action after a year-long export halt over disputes. Nigeria aims to boost oil and condensate output to 2.7 mb/d by 2027 from 1.67 mb/d in December. This would allow Nigeria to remain within its OPEC+ crude quota as it will likely be a strong addition to condensate production. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.87/bbl and $3.75/bbl, respectively.

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Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

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European Window: April Brent recovers to almost $76/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract fell to around $75.25/bbl at 1500 GMT before strengthening to $75.95/bbl at 1700 GMT (time of writing). The PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually, keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while core PCE increased 0.16% in December and 2.8% year-over-year. The 6-month annualized rate fell to 2.3%, the lowest in 2024. Libya’s NOC, under new acting chairman Massoud Suleman, aims to increase oil production and enhance transparency while considering office closures to streamline operations. Suleman also plans to work with authorities to end crude-for-fuel swaps and secure a stable budget for refined petroleum products. Exxon Mobil exceeded earnings expectations in Q4 despite lower oil prices, driven by strong production growth in Guyana and the Permian Basin. The company is increasing capital spending to over $30 billion annually, aiming to lower breakeven costs and sustain profitability while expanding LNG and crude production projects globally. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.77/bbl and $3.43/bbl, respectively.

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European Window: April Brent recovers to almost $76/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed from $75.40/bbl at 1400 GMT to see resistance around $76.50/bbl at 1540 GMT and is supported at just shy of $76.00/bbl at 1738 GMT (time of writing). Petrobras boosted reserves to 11.4 billion barrels in 2023, adding 1.3 billion barrels while producing 900 million. It plans to invest $111 billion from 2025-2029, with $77 billion for oil and gas exploration. Ukraine launched multiple drone strikes on Russian energy facilities, including a key oil refinery supplying Putin’s war effort. Oil flows at Russia’s Ust-Luga port were reportedly halted, supporting Kyiv’s claims of a successful attack on a pumping station. Shell expects an 85% reserve replacement ratio (RRR) for last year, indicating it replaced 85% of the oil and gas it produced. Over three years, its RRR averaged 108%. The company projects 2024 reserves at 9.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent. A judge ruled the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea unlawful, siding with Greenpeace and Uplift over missing emissions assessments. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.79/bbl and $3.38/bbl, respectively.

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Trader Meeting Notes

Trader Meeting Notes: DeepSeeking Tariffs

Gong Xi Fa Cai! Happy Year of the Snake to everyone in the oil market while they anxiously watch the front-month Brent futures contract tread around the low $77/bbl handle on the eve of expiry. The soon-to-be-prompt Apr ’25 Brent futures contract closed below $76/bbl on 29 Jan, where it found support and climbed to $76.40/bbl the following day (at the time of writing). Oil supply balances remain in flux as we await Mr Trump’s tariffs. For President Trump, tariffs are a means to achieve his goals, and he has made evident how far he is willing to go to weaponise them, including causing a near-explosion in the price of coffee in America by almost imposing tariffs on Colombia. It’s too soon, with eggs at record highs since Trump took office (Mr. President obviously does not like breakfast). Also in America, the Fed took a break from *“DEI, gender ideology, “green” energy and fake climate change”* and decided to maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.5%, citing elevated inflation. In Asia, while liquidity dried up for the New Year celebrations, China’s DeepSeek shook the tech industry worldwide, releasing an innovative and inexpensive AI model in a possible paradigm shift for AI. Finally, returning to the oil market, everyone will be awaiting the weekend, with 1 Feb being the White House’s deadline for imposing tariffs. It will be interesting to see how the market will be in the coming week, with calm waters on one side and the rough terrains of a possible trade war on the other.

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COT Report: Year of the Snake

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

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European Window: April Brent softens below $76/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed to $76.40/bbl at 16:00 GMT, softened to $76.05/bbl at 16:20 GMT before climbing again to $76.40/bbl at 16:40 GMT. The crude futures contract again met resistance at this level and declined to $75.65/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing).

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European Window: Brent Softens to $76.71/bbl

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract experienced a weaker afternoon, trading down from $78.16/bbl at midday to $76.76/bbl, where it trades at the time of writing (17:30 GMT) as concerns surrounding oil supply disruptions from Colombia eased. In headlines, Iraq’s Rumaila oilfield, its largest and one of the most productive in the world with a capacity of 1.5 mb/d has seen its output cut by 300 kb/d following a fire at the field last week. The incident occurred in a decommissioned storage tank at the fifth gas separation station (DS5) in northern Rumaila and was reportedly caused by “unidentified technical reasons,” according to the Iraqi oil ministry. Iraq currently has no timeline for restoring full production. Rumaila, operated in partnership with BP and PetroChina, accounts for roughly a third of Iraq’s total crude output, which has risen by 40% since 2010. In other news, teapot refiners in the Shandong province are under increasing financial pressure as new tariffs on imported feedstock came into effect on January 1, 2025. The import tariff on fuel oil was raised from 1% to 3%, while rebates on consumption taxes were reduced, significantly increasing operating costs. Many of these refiners, which lack sufficient crude import quotas, rely on fuel oil imports to produce transportation fuels like diesel and gasoline. Already struggling with narrow margins amid weak domestic fuel demand, at least four refiners have halted or plan to suspend operations indefinitely for maintenance. The Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 futures spreads have fallen to $0.84/bbl and $3.63/bbl, respectively.

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Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

Read More
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European Window: Brent Softens to $78.20/bbl

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract softened from $78.90/bbl at 1300 GMT to a low of sub-$78.00/bbl levels at 1615 GMT before rising to around $78.20/bbl at 1725 GMT (time of writing). Crude and gasoline prices dropped to two-week lows today, showing moderate declines. Crude oil faced pressure following remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who expressed willingness to discuss Ukraine and oil prices with President Trump, reducing concerns about potential additional US sanctions on Russian crude. Shell is set to report a lower annual profit for 2024, impacted by weak oil prices and declining demand for fossil fuels. The company is expected to announce earnings of £24.1 billion, down from £28.3 billion in 2023. The US Dollar Index dipped below 107.50 on Friday, facing intraday losses and a five-week low after US President Trump raised doubts about applying tariffs on China following a call with President Xi Jinping. The Bank of Japan’s 25 basis point rate hike significantly weakened the USD against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated today that India will continue purchasing discounted crude oil from Russia, emphasizing the government’s commitment to securing economically priced oil. He noted that India’s imports from Russia have risen from 0.2% in February 2022 to 30%. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.90/bbl and $3.79/bbl, respectively.

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