Gasoline

Gasoline is a key fuel for automobiles, playing a central role in powering personal and commercial vehicles, underpinning the mobility that fuels economic activities around the world.

Find live prices on Flux Terminal. Trade gasoline cost-free on Onyx Markets.

Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

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European Window: April Brent recovers to almost $76/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract fell to around $75.25/bbl at 1500 GMT before strengthening to $75.95/bbl at 1700 GMT (time of writing). The PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually, keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while core PCE increased 0.16% in December and 2.8% year-over-year. The 6-month annualized rate fell to 2.3%, the lowest in 2024. Libya’s NOC, under new acting chairman Massoud Suleman, aims to increase oil production and enhance transparency while considering office closures to streamline operations. Suleman also plans to work with authorities to end crude-for-fuel swaps and secure a stable budget for refined petroleum products. Exxon Mobil exceeded earnings expectations in Q4 despite lower oil prices, driven by strong production growth in Guyana and the Permian Basin. The company is increasing capital spending to over $30 billion annually, aiming to lower breakeven costs and sustain profitability while expanding LNG and crude production projects globally. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.77/bbl and $3.43/bbl, respectively.

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European Window: April Brent recovers to almost $76/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed from $75.40/bbl at 1400 GMT to see resistance around $76.50/bbl at 1540 GMT and is supported at just shy of $76.00/bbl at 1738 GMT (time of writing). Petrobras boosted reserves to 11.4 billion barrels in 2023, adding 1.3 billion barrels while producing 900 million. It plans to invest $111 billion from 2025-2029, with $77 billion for oil and gas exploration. Ukraine launched multiple drone strikes on Russian energy facilities, including a key oil refinery supplying Putin’s war effort. Oil flows at Russia’s Ust-Luga port were reportedly halted, supporting Kyiv’s claims of a successful attack on a pumping station. Shell expects an 85% reserve replacement ratio (RRR) for last year, indicating it replaced 85% of the oil and gas it produced. Over three years, its RRR averaged 108%. The company projects 2024 reserves at 9.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent. A judge ruled the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea unlawful, siding with Greenpeace and Uplift over missing emissions assessments. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.79/bbl and $3.38/bbl, respectively.

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Trader Meeting Notes: DeepSeeking Tariffs

Gong Xi Fa Cai! Happy Year of the Snake to everyone in the oil market while they anxiously watch the front-month Brent futures contract tread around the low $77/bbl handle on the eve of expiry. The soon-to-be-prompt Apr ’25 Brent futures contract closed below $76/bbl on 29 Jan, where it found support and climbed to $76.40/bbl the following day (at the time of writing). Oil supply balances remain in flux as we await Mr Trump’s tariffs. For President Trump, tariffs are a means to achieve his goals, and he has made evident how far he is willing to go to weaponise them, including causing a near-explosion in the price of coffee in America by almost imposing tariffs on Colombia. It’s too soon, with eggs at record highs since Trump took office (Mr. President obviously does not like breakfast). Also in America, the Fed took a break from *“DEI, gender ideology, “green” energy and fake climate change”* and decided to maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.5%, citing elevated inflation. In Asia, while liquidity dried up for the New Year celebrations, China’s DeepSeek shook the tech industry worldwide, releasing an innovative and inexpensive AI model in a possible paradigm shift for AI. Finally, returning to the oil market, everyone will be awaiting the weekend, with 1 Feb being the White House’s deadline for imposing tariffs. It will be interesting to see how the market will be in the coming week, with calm waters on one side and the rough terrains of a possible trade war on the other.

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COT Report: Year of the Snake

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

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European Window: April Brent softens below $76/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed to $76.40/bbl at 16:00 GMT, softened to $76.05/bbl at 16:20 GMT before climbing again to $76.40/bbl at 16:40 GMT. The crude futures contract again met resistance at this level and declined to $75.65/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing).

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European Window: Brent Softens to $76.71/bbl

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract experienced a weaker afternoon, trading down from $78.16/bbl at midday to $76.76/bbl, where it trades at the time of writing (17:30 GMT) as concerns surrounding oil supply disruptions from Colombia eased. In headlines, Iraq’s Rumaila oilfield, its largest and one of the most productive in the world with a capacity of 1.5 mb/d has seen its output cut by 300 kb/d following a fire at the field last week. The incident occurred in a decommissioned storage tank at the fifth gas separation station (DS5) in northern Rumaila and was reportedly caused by “unidentified technical reasons,” according to the Iraqi oil ministry. Iraq currently has no timeline for restoring full production. Rumaila, operated in partnership with BP and PetroChina, accounts for roughly a third of Iraq’s total crude output, which has risen by 40% since 2010. In other news, teapot refiners in the Shandong province are under increasing financial pressure as new tariffs on imported feedstock came into effect on January 1, 2025. The import tariff on fuel oil was raised from 1% to 3%, while rebates on consumption taxes were reduced, significantly increasing operating costs. Many of these refiners, which lack sufficient crude import quotas, rely on fuel oil imports to produce transportation fuels like diesel and gasoline. Already struggling with narrow margins amid weak domestic fuel demand, at least four refiners have halted or plan to suspend operations indefinitely for maintenance. The Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 futures spreads have fallen to $0.84/bbl and $3.63/bbl, respectively.

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Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

Read More

European Window: Brent Softens to $78.20/bbl

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract softened from $78.90/bbl at 1300 GMT to a low of sub-$78.00/bbl levels at 1615 GMT before rising to around $78.20/bbl at 1725 GMT (time of writing). Crude and gasoline prices dropped to two-week lows today, showing moderate declines. Crude oil faced pressure following remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who expressed willingness to discuss Ukraine and oil prices with President Trump, reducing concerns about potential additional US sanctions on Russian crude. Shell is set to report a lower annual profit for 2024, impacted by weak oil prices and declining demand for fossil fuels. The company is expected to announce earnings of £24.1 billion, down from £28.3 billion in 2023. The US Dollar Index dipped below 107.50 on Friday, facing intraday losses and a five-week low after US President Trump raised doubts about applying tariffs on China following a call with President Xi Jinping. The Bank of Japan’s 25 basis point rate hike significantly weakened the USD against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated today that India will continue purchasing discounted crude oil from Russia, emphasizing the government’s commitment to securing economically priced oil. He noted that India’s imports from Russia have risen from 0.2% in February 2022 to 30%. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.90/bbl and $3.79/bbl, respectively.

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Trader Meeting Notes: Cease-Fire and Ice

Brent softened this week as disbelief continued to be suspended for the promised (read: threatened) tariffs from the US, and the market digested and rebalanced following the rally to over $82.00/bbl last week on the news of new sanctions on Russia and Venezuela that included the Russian dark fleet.

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European Window: Brent Declines To $78.10/bbl

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract initially saw strength this afternoon, steadily climbing to $79.60/bbl around 1515 GMT, however, prices sold-off shortly after 1610 GMT down to $78.10/bbl at 1640 GMT, retracing to $78.65/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices faced bearish sentiment after US President Trump urged OPEC to lower oil prices and reiterated his tariff threats, as per Bloomberg. Trump also pledged to ensure Europe’s energy security while asserting that the US no longer needed Canadian oil and gas. Meanwhile, EIA data released today at 1700 GMT for the week to 17 Jan showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 1.02mb. In the news today, Donald Trump’s tariff threats aimed at strongarming Russia into ending the war in Ukraine have been badly received by some Russian politicians, with Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, stating Trump’s actions suggested he would not be able to bring peace to Ukraine, according to Reuters. In other news, a large part of Russia’s oil tanker fleet is being forced to change the flag they sail under after pressure from US and UK sanctions, as per Bloomberg. The Barbados ship registry said that by the end of January it will have asked 46 ships to remove the country’s flag as a result of the sanctions, while Panama’s ship registry said earlier this month it had begun to de-list 68 US-sanctioned vessels. In macroeconomic news, US jobless claims data released at 1330 GMT today edged higher to 223k, compared to a forecast of 221k. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.78/bbl and $3.69/bbl, respectively.

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European Window: Brent Weakens To $79.45/bbl

After this morning’s strength, Mar’25 Brent futures declined from just under $79.90/bbl at 1120 GMT down to this afternoon’s low of $78.87/bbl at 1500 GMT, recovering to $79.45/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment amid waning geopolitical risk, with the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire likely to be extended beyond next week, as per Bloomberg. In the news today, US President Donald Trump said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end the war in Ukraine, Reuters reports. Trump added that tariffs could also be applied to “other participating countries”, currently threatening a 10% tariff on China. In other news, Motiva’s 630kb/d Port Arthur refinery on the Texas Gulf Coast has shut multiple units due to winter storms. Meanwhile, the ports of Houston and Galveston remain shut as Freeport opens, as per Bloomberg. Finally, CNOOC said today that its net oil and gas production was about 720mb of oil equivalent for 2024, setting a record high for the sixth consecutive year. The company aims to maintain stable capital expenditure for 2025 while reaching a net production target of 760mb to 780mb. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.88/bbl and $4.17/bbl, respectively.

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COT Report: Turbulent Trading

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

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European Window: Brent Rises Above $79/bbl

The Mar’25 Brent futures flat price clawed higher on Tuesday afternoon, rising from $78.50/bbl at 14:00 GMT to nearly $79.60/bbl by 16:45 GMT before falling to $79.16/bbl by 17:40 GMT (time of writing). In the news, a rare winter storm across the U.S. South has disrupted natural gas and oil production, strained the Texas power grid, and halted LNG exports. Despite the Houthis’ announced pullback, insurers remain reluctant to cover Red Sea transit due to ongoing security risks, delaying a full return to the Suez Canal route and keeping freight rates elevated, though a gradual decline is expected. Trump’s tariff threats on Canadian oil have widened the gap between U.S. and Canadian energy stocks, with Toronto-listed names underperforming as investors shy away from policy uncertainty, while analysts warn of further downside if tariffs are implemented. Serica Energy remains committed to investing in the UK North Sea despite high taxes, seeing opportunities in the market, but emphasises the need for a more sustainable tax regime to support long-term oil and gas development. U.S. energy mergers may slow in 2025 as deal sizes shrink due to fewer available targets and regulatory delays, but smaller and mid-cap producers are still expected to pursue M&A for scale, with cost-saving measures like longer laterals helping to improve drilling economics. Finally, the front (Mar/Apr) and 6-month (Mar/Sep) Brent futures spreads are at $0.81/bbl and $4.05/bbl respectively.

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