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The front-month Brent futures contract softened this afternoon, dipping from $70.70/bbl at 12:40 GMT to sub-$70/bbl at $69.80/bbl at the time of writing (17:40 GMT).
The front-month Brent crude futures contract has fallen into a lull, with prices confined to the $68-71/bbl range over the past ten days. At the time of writing on 13 Mar, the contract was trading at $70.65/bbl. Risk takers have been paring their exposure to ICE Brent, with Onyx’s CTA model showing a decline in CTA net positioning in Brent from -23k lots on 3 Mar to -44k lots on 11 Mar. Positive data, such as softer inflation readings in the US, have yet to enamour global financial markets. US Treasury yields are still elevated while risk assets such as US equities and oil remain dampened. This apathy comes from a market rife with uncertainty amid the hullabaloo surrounding US President Trump’s tariffs. President Trump has threatened to levy further tariffs on the European Union following the latter’s plan to retaliate against US tariffs on global steel and aluminium tariffs, which took effect this week. Until we receive further clarity on President Trump’s economic policies, the market may continue to be risk-off. Additionally, the world has turned to play a game of “Chinese whispers” on the geopolitical front, with the internet filled with rumours and speculation about the timeline of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia – adding to the uncertainty. Ukraine and Russia finally provided some clarity this week, agreeing to a ceasefire proposal. Still, Russian President Putin caveated the need to address a few issues before the deal could progress. While we await further details of this proposal, any deal agreed to will likely involve the removal of sanctions on Russian energy – which would pressure down oil prices. All in all, all roads lead to weaker prices, although one must not discount lingering bullishness from possible trade-war-linked supply tightness or severe sanctions on Iranian energy.
The May’25 Brent futures contract strengthened from $70.30/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $71.10/bbl at 1630 GMT, softening to $70.90/bbl by 1730 GMT (time of writing). EIA data released this afternoon for the week ending 7 Mar showed a smaller-than-expected build of 1.4mb in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, the Kremlin said it was awaiting details from Washington about a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, according to Reuters. Senior Moscow sources stated a deal would have to take account of Russia’s advances into Ukraine and insist President Zelenskiy abandons ambitions to join NATO. In other news, Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei has said President Trump’s calls for negotiations are a “trick to deceive the world’s public opinion” and “make the knot of sanctions tighter”, in a speech on Iranian state TV. Khamenei has rejected talks with the US over a nuclear deal while China is set to host nuclear talks with Iran and Russia on Friday. Finally, Kazakhstan contributed to more than half of the overall OPEC+ oil production rise in February, according to Reuters. OPEC data showed that Kazakhstan produced 1.767mb/d last month, up from 1.57mb/d in January and far exceeding their 1.468mb/d quota. Meanwhile, India’s Russian oil imports have begun to recover in March, now at 1.54mb/d after sitting around 1.1-1.2mb/d in the previous three months, as per Kpler. Non-sanctioned vessels were delivering cargoes while some supplies were diverted from Turkey, according to five trade sources cited by Reuters. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.50/bbl and $2.50/bbl.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The May’25 Brent futures contract is on track for a daily gain, although it failed to maintain the strength from this morning, dropping from $70.20/bbl at 12.00 GMT to $69.60/bbl at 17.30 GMT (time of writing). The EIA now forecasts OPEC crude production to decline by 0.05 mb/d in 2025, a revision from its previous estimate of a 0.18 mb/d increase. For 2026, production is expected to rise by 0.26 mb/d, down from the earlier projection of 0.36 mb/d. These adjustments are attributed to sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Additionally, OPEC+ crude production increased by 140 kb/d m/m in Feb, reaching 40.99 mb/d. President Donald Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 50%, fueling a Wall Street sell-off. Ontario Premier Doug Ford pushed back, stating on X that Canada “will not back down until President Trump’s tariffs are gone for good.”. Petrobras is eyeing opportunities in Argentina, including Vaca Muerta gas and oil projects while advancing its Colombian offshore gas development. The firm plans to supply 13 million cubic meters of gas daily to Colombia and seeks overseas reserves amid drilling restrictions in Brazil. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.38/bbl.
The May’25 Brent futures contract weakened from this afternoon’s high of $70.85/bbl at 1230 GMT down to $69.30/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Bearish sentiment surrounding the April OPEC+ output hike has kept crude oil prices pressured, in addition to growing fears of a recession in the US and ongoing tariff uncertainty. In the news today, a tanker named Stena Immaculate was struck by a container ship off the northeast coast of England, igniting a fire. The tanker was carrying Jet-A1 fuel and has the potential to hold tens of thousands of tons, according to Reuters. A US military spokesman told Reuters it had been on a short-term charter to the US Navy’s Military Sealift Command, as part of a US government plan to supply armed forces with fuel. In other news, President Zelenskiy has landed in Saudi Arabia a day before talks between Ukrainian and US officials are expected to begin ceasefire talks. Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said he has expectations that “we’re going to make substantial progress”, in an interview with Fox News. Finally, Ukraine’s military said it hit two Russian oil refineries over the weekend, one in the Ryazan region and another in the Samara region, both supplying fuel for the Russian army. The Ryazan refinery produced an average 840k tons of high-grade jet engine fuel, according to a statement by Ukraine’s general staff. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.26/bbl.
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This afternoon, the May’25 Brent futures contract initially strengthened up from $70.30/bbl at 1230 GMT up to $71.40/bbl at 1530 GMT. However, these gains reversed, falling to $70.25/bbl at 1740 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices found support after President Trump threatened sanctions on Russian banks if the country fails to work toward a ceasefire with Ukraine. In the news today, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ could reverse the decision to start increasing oil output from April if there are market imbalances. Meanwhile, officials from Kazakhstan speaking at an online briefing pledged to cut output in March, April, and May, according to Reuters. Nigeria’s oil production in February was 70kb/d above its OPEC+ quota of 1.5mb/d, amid higher exports and increased demand from the Dangote refinery. In other news, Shell has started first oil production from the next development phase of a deepwater oil project offshore Malaysia. Phase 4 of the Gumusut-Kakap project is expected to produce approximately 21k/d of oil equivalent. This forms part of Shell’s plan to develop new upstream projects between 2023-2025, projected to deliver and additional 500kb/d of oil equivalent at peak production. Finally, Russia attacked energy and gas infrastructure in Ukraine early on Friday, national gas firm Naftogaz said. Acting Naftogaz chairman Roman Chumak said Naftogaz gas production infrastructure has now come under attack for the seventeenth time. At the time of writing, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.31/bbl respectively.
The May’25 Brent futures contract declined from $69.85/bbl at 1230 GMT down to $68.75/bbl at 1640 GMT, however, has found support up to $69.45/bbl at 1810 GMT (time of writing). This afternoon saw a spike in crude oil prices at around 1720 GMT, after US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated the US will not hesitate to go “all in” on Russian energy sanctions and “shutdown” Iran’s oil sector, as per Bloomberg. In the news today, as of late February, independent refineries in China’s Shandong province have begun restarting their crude distillation units following a decline in fuel oil prices. The refineries have a combined capacity of 178kb/d, according to S&P Global. In other news, the US exported around 357kb/d of crude to India in February, according to vessel tracking data from Kpler. US crude exports to India hit an over 2-year high last month and are up significantly from exports of 221kb/d in February 2024. Finally, a US-sanctioned Russian oil-tanker has transported about 35,000 tons of diesel from Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk to Syria, as per Bloomberg. It is unclear whether the shipment is for Russian bases or the Syrian government. At the time of writing, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $2.23/bbl respectively.
The M1 Brent futures contract has fallen more than $10 since mid-January and now sits at the lowest level seen since December 2021, trading at an intraday low of $68.50/bbl on 05 Mar. OPEC+ headlines on Monday (03 Mar) were the core focus of the market this week, with the cartel confirming plans to boost oil production. While the news itself was widely expected, the timing of the long-delayed announcement was anything but. This would be the OPEC+ first output hike since 2022, adding around 138kb/d of supply beginning in April. In addition, this week US President Trump implemented 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, which increased concerns of poor crude demand and added to bearish sentiment in futures prices. Mexican state-owned Pemex is now seeking alternative markets and is in talks with potential buyers in China and Europe, while Canada relies on the US as the market for 90% of its exports. News of deteriorating Russia-Ukraine peace talks this week was not enough to bring bullish sentiment back to crude oil markets, with the US now withdrawing military aid for Ukraine after President Zelenskiy failed to sign the minerals deal last Friday. At the time of writing on 06 Mar, Apr’25 Brent futures has rebounded from its 3-year lows by $1, trading at $69.50/bbl. It remains to be seen whether buy-side interest could pick up or if this latest strength is a mere dead cat bounce.
The May’25 Brent futures contract has weakened this afternoon, trading from $70.20/bbl at 1200 GMT down to almost $68.35/bbl around 164 0 GMT, recovering to $69.10/bbl at 1740 GMT (time of writing). M1 Brent futures has now fallen to the lowest level seen since December 2021. Crude oil prices have declined following a larger-than-expected EIA build of 3.61mb in US crude oil inventories for the week to 28 Feb, alongside bearish sentiment surrounding the April OPEC+ output hike and Trump tariffs. In the news today, the US has now paused intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, CIA director John Ratcliffe said. This followed a halt to US military aid to Kyiv earlier this week, adding pressure on Ukraine to cooperate in peace talks. In other news, Russia saw its oil and gas revenues drop by 18.4% in February y/y, according to data from the Russian Finance Ministry cited by TASS. Finally, Egypt is inviting international companies to bid for 13 offshore and onshore blocks in a new licensing round to boost domestic oil and gas production. This includes three offshore blocks in the Gulf of Suez and three onshore exploration areas in Egypt’s Western Desert. At the time of writing, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.42/bbl and $1.97/bbl respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The front-month Brent futures initially ticked up this afternoon, rising to $70.75/bbl at 14:10 GMT but dropped to a six-month low of $69.80/bbl at 15:05 GMT. The futures contract met support at this critical level and climbed to $70.80/bbl at the time of writing (17:45 GMT).
The front-month RBOB futures contract jumped from a close of under $2/gal on 28 Feb to $2.23/gal on 3 Mar due to the Feb’25 RBOB expiry on 28 Feb. The contract has since weakened to $2.17/gal at the time of writing. The specific Apr’25 RBOB flat price contract has been weakening since the second half of February, declining from an intraday high of $2.38/gal on 12 Feb to $2.17/gal at the time of writing. CFTC COT data for the week ending 25 Feb recorded a 2.3mb decline in open interest (OI) in the RBOB futures, with the de-risking likely emerging from rising uncertainty surrounding gasoline sentiment in the US. Donald Trump introduced a 25% tariff on Mexican exports into the US and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports into the US. Such a tariff could support US gasoline prices due to the dependence of the PADD-2 refinery on sour crude oil.
