Gasoline

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract started to recover this afternoon, strengthening around 50c since this morning up to $80.93/bbl at 1325 GMT. However, Brent flat price then sold-off at US open (1330 GMT) down to $79.45/bbl around 1400 GMT, retracing to $80.08/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have continued to decline as traders anticipate policy announcements from US President Donald Trump, including plans to boost domestic oil production and resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the news today, Chinese crude imports from Russia rose by 1% y/y to a record high of 2.17mb/d, data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed. Higher imports from Russia potentially demonstrate Chinese refiners’ appetite for cheap cargoes amid weak refining margins. Meanwhile, crude imports from Saudi Arabia dipped by 9% y/y to 1.57mb/d. In other news, Chevron has expressed interest in oil and gas exploration offshore Greece, the Greek Ministry of Energy and Environment stated today. Greece said that it would imminently announce an international tender and decide on the particular area designated for exploration this week. Finally, the cost to hire an oil supertanker on key routes to China has doubled since the newly imposed US sanctions on Russia, as per Bloomberg. Daily rates for VLCCs on the Middle East-to-China route (TD3C) surged 112% to $57.6k in the week to 17 Jan, while rates on the US Gulf-to-China route (TD22) soared 102% to around $55.5k. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.99/bbl and $4.70/bbl, respectively.

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract weakened further this afternoon, falling from $81.35/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $80.57/bbl at 1600 GMT, before recovering to $81.15/bbl at 1755 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have faced some downward pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease, following Israel’s security cabinet’s approval of the Gaza ceasefire deal. In the news today, China’s oil refinery throughput in 2024 saw its first decline in over two decades excluding 2022, as refineries scaled back operations amid stagnant fuel demand and weak margins. Throughput dropped 1.6% year-over-year to 14.13 million barrels per day. In other news, a Reuters review of US sanctions showed six Russian oil tankers still under construction were included, the first time Washington is known to have banned tankers before they set sail. In addition, Russia’s exports of refined oil products fell by 9.1% y/y in 2024 to 113.7 million metric tonnes amid drone attacks on refineries and export bans. Finally, Italy’s natural gas consumption fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, dropping by 2.5% to the lowest level in more than 15 years, power market manage GME stated. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.21/bbl and $5.37/bbl, respectively.

Mar’25 Brent futures saw oscillating price action this afternoon, increasing from $81.20/bbl at 1230 GMT to nearly $82.00/bbl at 1425 GMT, before falling to $80.45/bbl at 1630 and recovering to $81.45/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, a strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran will not include a mutual defence clause like those Russia has signed with North Korea and Belarus, according to TASS citing an Iranian envoy. In other news, advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are readying a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate Russia-Ukraine diplomacy in coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, Bloomberg reported. One set of policy recommendations suggested good-faith measures to benefit sanctioned Russian oil producers, on the condition that an end to the Ukraine war is in sight. Meanwhile, a second recommendation proposed to ramp up pressure by building on the sanctions. In addition, Scott Bessent said the US is poised to increase sanctions on Russian oil companies to force them to the negotiating table with Ukraine, according to Financial Times. Finally, BP plans to cut some 4,700 jobs and 3,000 contractor roles this year to reduce costs, the supermajor told Reuters. These cuts would be equal to around 5% of the global workforce of around 90,000 employees at BP, aiming to cut at least $2 billion in costs by 2026. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.40/bbl and $5.72/bbl, respectively.

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract saw steady strength this afternoon, rising from just over $80/bbl at 1200 GMT up to this afternoon’s high of $81.60/bbl at 1630 GMT, moderating to $81.40/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). EIA stats released at 1530 GMT for the week ending 10 Jan showed a lower-than-expected draw of 1.96mb in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a Gaza ceasefire deal, centred on the release of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, as per Bloomberg. The deal outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase and includes the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, according to Reuters. In other news, Russia targeted Ukrainian gas infrastructure and other energy facilities today, with President Zelenskyy claiming Russia launched over 40 missiles during a morning attack and more than 70 drones overnight. Ukraine’s oil and gas company Naftogaz said there were no outages and “gas supplies to population were uninterrupted”, while the Russian Defence Ministry claimed their attacks successfully hit all designated targets on energy facilities. Finally, OPEC has released its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, forecasting global oil demand to expand by 1.4mb/d in 2025. OPEC projects OECD oil demand to grow by about 0.1mb/d while non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.3mb/d, with this rate of growth expected to continue in 2026. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.27/bbl and $5.34/bbl, respectively.

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract saw some weakness this afternoon, declining from almost $80.90/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $80.15/bbl at 1800 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief is now pushing for the European Union to lower the $60/bbl price cap on Russian oil, Kallas told Bloomberg in an interview. In other news, swarms of Ukrainian drones attacked energy and military facilities across central Russia and the Volga region overnight, according to a Ukrainian Security Service official. Drones set Rosneft’s PJSC Saratov oil refinery on fire as well as two chemical plants in the Tula and Bryansk regions, according to Bloomberg. Finally, Peru’s Bretana crude oil is gaining popularity in the US, with the first cargo discharging in the US Gulf Coast this month as US refiners seek alternatives to Mexican heavy crude, as per Reuters. Kpler and LSEG ship tracking data showed a vessel transported about 300kb of Bretana from Brazil to Houston on 2 Jan, with the cargo bought by oil major Shell. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.11/bbl and $4.76/bbl, respectively.

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract ultimately saw weakness this afternoon amid rangebound price action, seeing a decline from around $81.10/bbl at 1200 GMT down to this afternoon’s low of $80.37/bbl at 1425 GMT, before recovering to $80.90/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, an Indian government source said the country has halted trade with US-sanctioned Russian companies and tankers, but the country does not expect disruption to Russian crude supplies for a two-month wind-down period, Reuters reports. In other news, the German government is considering selling its entire 99.12% stake in the $18.8 billion energy company Uniper, however, wishes to pursue a partial stake sale of around 25% as a preferred option, as per Reuters. Parties that have been approached about a full sale include New York-headquartered Brookfield. Germany’s Finance Ministry have yet to reveal a timeframe or structure for the potential deal. Finally, the Russian Defence Ministry claimed on Telegram that Ukraine attempted a drone attack on TurkStream gas pipeline this weekend, sending nine drones to hit the Russkaya compressor station in the Russian region of Krasnodar, with no damage reported. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.35/bbl and $5.52/bbl, respectively.

Strength in the Mar’25 Brent futures contract continued this afternoon, seeing a significant rally from around $78.80/bbl at 1100 GMT up to $80.65/bbl just after 1430 GMT, before falling back down to $79.25/bbl by 1750 GMT (time of writing). This afternoon saw bullish sentiment as crude oil prices reached $80 per barrel for the first time since October, coinciding with the US expanding its sanctions on Russia and Venezuela. The measures against Russia include sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, and the blacklisting of 183 vessels involved in Russian energy exports, according to Financial Times. Meanwhile, the sanctions on Venezuela targeted state oil company PDVSA chief Hector Obregon and eight Venezuelan officials in President Nicolas Maduro’s government, as per Reuters. These measures come alongside UK and EU sanctions aimed at fifteen additional Venezuelan officials. In other news, oil refiners in India and China have increased crude purchases from the Middle East and Atlantic Basin amid concerns of limited Russian and Iranian supply, according to Bloomberg. Two Indian refiners bought up to 6mb of Oman and Murban crude this week for February loading, while Indian Oil Corp bought up to 2mb of WTI Midland. Finally, US non-farm payrolls released at 1330 GMT today showed a 256k increase in jobs in December 2024, the highest in nine months and much larger than the forecast of 160k. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.92/bbl and $3.97/bbl, respectively.

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract has seen steady support this afternoon, increasing from around $76.40/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $77.20/bbl at 1725 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil supply is set to decline in February m/m, with Saudi Aramco projected to ship about 43.5mb of crude oil to China, down from January’s 46mb. China’s state majors CNOOC and PetroChina are expected to lift less crude in February while Aramco is set to increase its supply to Sinopec and Sinochem, according to a Reuters report. In other news, after BP was hired as a technical service provider for India’s largest oifield, Mumbai High, the British major stated that crude oil output at the offshore field could be increased by 44% from a baseline production of 45.47 million metric tonnes to 65.41 over the ten-year contract period. According to India’s ONGC, the increase is expected to be visible from FY’26 with full scale visibility expected from FY’28. Finally, in the leadup to President-elect Trump’s inauguration on 20 January, the US Senate energy committee will hold nomination hearings for energy roles on Tuesday and Wednesday (14-15 Jan) next week, as per Reuters. The committee will hold a hearing for Doug Burgum for secretary of the interior and Chris Wright for energy secretary, two candidates who are both expected to carry out Trump’s policies to boost production of oil and gas. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.67/bbl and $2.82/bbl, respectively.

After reaching nearly $77.90/bbl this morning, the Mar’25 Brent futures contract has weakened this afternoon, selling-off from $77.50/bbl around 1300 GMT down to $76.25/bbl at 1730 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment alongside the release of EIA data at 1550 GMT today, which showed a lower-than-expected draw of 959kb in US crude oil inventories for the week ending 03 Jan, compared to a forecasted draw of 2mb. In the news today, the Ukrainian military said it set fire to a Russian oil depot which provided fuel to the Engels-2 military air base containing Russian nuclear bomber planes, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, a Russian regional governor Roman Busargin stated that a fire caused by a “mass drone attack” had broken out in Engels at an industrial site, which he did not name. In other news, India’s state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has hired BP to be the technical services provider at their Mumbai High oilfield, a move aimed at identifying improvements in the facilities to boost crude production. The oilfield hit a peak oil production of 471kb/d in March 1985, with output declining to around 134kb/d as of last year. Finally, strong European demand for Guyana’s crude has pushed the country’s oil exports up by 54% to 582kb/d in 2024, according to Reuters citing LSEG shipping data. Since Guyana began exporting oil in early 2020, it is now the fifth largest Latin American crude exporter after Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, and Colombia. Finally, at the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.62/bbl and $2.63/bbl, respectively.