Distillates

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally from $59.42/bbl at 12:00 BST to $61.78/bbl at 15:42 BST. Prices have since fallen off and are at $61.01/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US and Ukraine have signed a deal to share future profits from Ukraine’s mineral and energy reserves. The agreement also establishes a US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund and includes provisions giving the US access to some of Ukraine’s natural resources in return for future security guarantees. In other news, Saudi Arabia may increase oil output starting in June. Sources told Reuters and Bloomberg that the Saudis, comfortable with current low prices, are unlikely to support further supply cuts and may instead boost production to regain market share. Venezuela’s oil exports fell nearly 20% in April to about 700kb/d , the lowest in nine months, after state-run PDVSA suspended most Chevron cargoes over payment concerns tied to US sanctions enforcement. Chevron’s exports to the US dropped 69%, while other buyers like Reliance and Maurel & Prom increased imports ahead of a 27 May sanctions deadline. Meanwhile, Venezuela boosted imports of diluents like naphtha and began exporting a new crude grade, Blend 22. The IMF has cut its 2025 growth forecast for Middle East oil exporters to 2.3%, down from 4% previously, citing falling oil prices, weak demand, and ongoing trade tensions. It now expects oil to average $66.90/bbl due to rising non-OPEC+ supply and reduced global demand. Finally, he front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan spreads are at $0.35/bbl and $0.60/bbl respectively.

Jul’25 Brent futures saw heavy losses this afternoon, from $62.80/bbl at 16.35 BST to lows of $60.80/bbl at 16.55 BST before it retraced slightly to $61.30/bbl at 17.10 BST (time of writing). Reuters reported that Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices, five sources with knowledge of the talks said. In 2024, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports (including re-exports) rose by 13.1%, signalling progress in diversifying its economy. However, total merchandise exports fell by 4.5% while imports rose 12.5%, narrowing the trade surplus to SR272.6 billion. Oil’s share of total exports dropped to 73.1%. Nexanteca reported that the Middle East is projected to boost oil refining capacity by 618 kb/d by 2029, led by Iraq and Iran, enhancing its net export potential to nearly 7 mb/d by 2040. Key projects in Iraq, Iran, Bahrain, and Oman are underway, while others in Saudi Arabia and the UAE await investment decisions. According to the EIA, US crude inventories fell by 2.696 mb last week (exp +0.39mb). Cushing stocks rose by 682kb, gasoline dropped 4mb, and distillates increased by 0.937mb. Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $1.92/bbl and $2.49/bbl, respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw a volatile afternoon, trading between $63.91/bbl at 13:02 BST and $63.10/bbl at 17:38 BST (time of writing). In the news, Scotland’s only oil refinery at Grangemouth has permanently stopped processing crude oil after 100 years of operation, following a decision announced in 2024 by owner Petroineos. The site will now function as an import and distribution hub for fuels. The closure, attributed to competition from modern refineries in Asia and the Middle East, has led to 430 job losses, with around 70 staff remaining. India is significantly increasing its imports of US crude oil ahead of key negotiations over American tariffs. Around 11.2mb are expected to arrive in June driven by state refiners like Indian Oil and BPCL. The move is seen as a strategic effort to strengthen ties and potentially reduce US tariffs. Other Asian nations, including Thailand and South Korea, are also boosting US energy purchases to avoid tariffs. In other news, PetroChina reported a 2.3% rise in first-quarter profit to $6.4B, making it the only Chinese state oil giant to post higher earnings amid weaker oil prices. Its crude oil price fell 7.2% year-on-year, while domestic gas prices dipped 3.9%. However, stronger natural gas production and sales drove a 9.7% gain in gas division profits, offsetting declines in refining. Overall revenue fell 7.3% due to lower demand for refined products. Meanwhile, Sinopec and CNOOC both reported profit declines. Finally, the front month Jun/Jul and 6-mont Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.80/bbl and $1.41/bbl respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially rallied to $65.81/bbl at 14:30 BST before falling off to $64.37/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). In the news, a massive power outage hit Spain and Portugal, disrupting flights, traffic, hospitals, and businesses. Power started returning in parts of Spain, but full restoration could take hours. Several Spanish oil refineries, including both operated by Moeve and Petronor’s Bilbao refinery shut down. Moeve, owned by Mubadala and Carlyle Group, confirmed its plants were halted, while Repsol, Spain’s largest refinery operator, has not yet replied to a Reuters request for comment. Greek shipowners are re-entering the Russian Urals oil market as falling prices push crude below the $60/bbl Western price cap, allowing them to legally provide transport and insurance, three sources told Reuters. Companies like Minerva Marine, Dynacom, and TMS Tankers resumed shipments in April after being absent last year. In other news, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are due to report their earnings this week, with investors focusing on how falling oil prices could impact dividends and share buybacks for the rest of 2025. Lower oil prices, have raised concerns that Big Oil could cut back on returning cash to shareholders. Exxon is seen as better positioned to maintain its payouts compared to Chevron, which might reduce buybacks if weak prices persist. Finally the front month Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $1.03/bbl and $2.05/bbl respectively.

The Jun’25 Brent Futures saw prices slowly rally from $65.57/bbl at 12:30 BST up to $66.86/bbl at 18:32 BST (time of writing). In the news, US refiner Phillips 66 reported a larger-than-expected first-quarter loss due to lower refining margins and major turnaround activities at its plants. The refining unit posted a $937 million loss, compared to a $216 million profit a year earlier, with realized margins falling 38% to $6.81/bbl. Crude capacity utilization dropped to 80% from 92% last year. In other news, Iraq has sent a delegation to Syria to discuss reviving an oil pipeline that once carried crude to the Mediterranean, aiming to boost trade and regional cooperation. Talks also include border security and counterterrorism. The visit follows Syria’s post-Assad transition and recent oil shipments from Kurdish-controlled areas to the new central government, supported by eased EU sanctions. Activist investor Elliott Management, holding over 5% of BP’s shares, is pushing for strategic changes, including removing strategy chief Giulia Chierchia and splitting BP’s upstream and downstream units. The activist investor wants spending cuts and reduced low-carbon investments to boost free cash flow by 40% by 2027. BP has already begun shifting back to oil and gas under CEO Murray Auchincloss but faces pressure as oil prices fall. Finally, the front month Jun/Jul and the 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.83/bbl and  $2.34/bbl respectively.

The Jun’25 Brent Futures contract saw prices rangebound between $67.00/bbl and $66.50/bbl for most of the afternoon before falling off to $65.95 at 17:09 BST. Prices have since climbed back to $66.52/bbl at 17:43 BST (time of writing). In the news, Chevron plans to drill its first exploration well in Namibia’s Walvis Basin in 2026 or 2027, following its acquisition of an 80% stake and operatorship in Petroleum Exploration License 82 (PEL 82). The move aligns with Chevron’s broader strategy to expand its exploration portfolio in under-explored regions. PEL 82 lies north of Namibia’s Orange Basin, where Shell, TotalEnergies, and Galp have made major oil discoveries since 2022. In other news, Eni SpA reported Q1 2025 adjusted net profit of $1.6B, down 11% y/y but above expectations. Amid falling oil prices and macro uncertainty, the company will cut capital spending by up to $1.13B but will maintain its planned dividend hike and $1.7B share buyback. Shares rose nearly 2% in Milan on the news. To preserve payouts, Eni is deploying over $2.27B in cost-cutting and cash initiatives. Valero Energy posted a Q1 loss of $595 million, due to weaker refining margins and nearly $1B in impairment charges tied to West Coast assets. This compares to a $1.2B profit a year ago. CEO Lane Riggs cited heavy maintenance and weak renewable diesel margins as key challenges. Finally the front month Jun/Jul spread is at $0.89/bbl and the 6-month spread is at $2.43/bbl.

The front-month Brent futures contract saw a very volatile afternoon. Prices fell by $1.96/bbl down to $65.50/bbl at15:16 BST and jumped back up to $66.74/bbl at 17.30 BST (time of writing). The nearly $2.00/bbl drop comes as Kazakhstan stirs tensions within OPEC+ by declaring it will prioritize national interests over group quotas. Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov said Kazakhstan can’t cut output at major projects run by foreign firms like Chevron and ExxonMobil, which make up 70% of the country’s production. This stance clashes with OPEC+ efforts to rein in overproduction, especially after the group admitted to a 457kb/d surplus. In a further statement, Kazakhstan then said to be committed to constructive work with OPEC+, causing a $0.83/bbl jump in flatprice. In other news, Sinopec has resumed buying Russian ESPO crude for May after halting purchases in March and April due to U.S. sanctions concerns. While major Chinese refiners had paused or cut Russian imports, independent refiners continued buying. As a result, China’s crude imports jumped to over 12 mb/d in March, the highest since August 2023, with increased flows from Russia and Iran. US crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 244 kb last week as imports surged, despite forecasts for a draw. Cushing stocks fell slightly, while net imports jumped by 1.14 mb/d. Gasoline and distillate stocks dropped sharply, by 4.5 mb and 2.4 mb respectively, well above expectations. Refinery runs and utilization also increased. Jet fuel demand hit its highest four-week average since December. 2019, signalling strong product demand despite trade tensions. Finally, the front month Jun/Jul spreads and the 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.96/bbl and $2.62/bbl respctively.

Jun’25 Brent futures softened in the early afternoon to sub-$66.70/bbl at 14:56 BST before it saw better strength. Although highs of over $68.00/bbl at 17:15 BST failed to be maintained, the contract corrected to $67.90/bbl at 17:22 BST (time of writing). President Trump posted on Truth Social that he and Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, are ‘on the same side of every issue.’. This follows the US hitting Iranian LPG tycoon Seyed Asadoollah Emamjomeh and his business network with new sanctions today, accusing them of moving hundreds of millions of dollars in oil and gas abroad. The move comes as nuclear talks with Tehran continue. Halliburton CEO Jeff Miller expressed a bleak outlook for Mexico’s oil sector, citing ongoing challenges as Pemex, the country’s heavily indebted state oil company, struggles with nearly $100 billion in debt and slumping production. Despite new laws to stabilise output, analysts like Fitch remain sceptical, noting that current plans lack the strategic overhaul needed for a significant turnaround. BW Energy has confirmed a major oil discovery at the Bourdon prospect in the Dussafu License offshore Gabon, estimating 56 mb of oil in place, with about 25 mb recoverable. At the time of writing, the Jun/Jul’25 and Jun/Dec’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.96/bbl and $3.00/bbl, respectively.