Distillates

After the Apr’25 Brent futures rose from $76.30/bbl at 1300 GMT this afternoon to a weekly high of almost $76.80/bbl at 1440 GMT, before falling down to $76.25/bbl at 1735 GMT Overall, crude oil prices have been supported on fears of supply disruption, following the drone attack on the CPC pipeline oil flows and ongoing cold weather in the US. In the news today, oil flows from Iran to China rebounded in February after traders smoothed logistical bottlenecks caused by tighter US sanctions, seeing an increase in ship-to-ship transfers and use of alternative terminals, Bloomberg reports. In February, Iranian oil flows to China hit 1.7mb/d, a level last seen in Sep 2024 and up from 932kb/d in January, as per Kpler. In other news, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine would not be excluded from negotiations to end the war, but success would depend on raising the level of trust between Moscow and Washington, according to Reuters. Finally, India is scouting for overseas oil storage and is in talks with Oman to hold about 5mb of crude oil, L.R. Jain, the chief executive of Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves (ISPRL) stated. Jain told Reuters that this would be the first time that India will be holding storage overseas if a deal with Oman is reached. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $2.66/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price saw a choppy afternoon, swinging by a dollar from $76 to $75/bbl before rising to $75.70/bbl by 17:00 GMT. According to a Bloomberg report, privately-run terminals in China, particularly in Shandong, Yangshan, and Huizhou, have become key hubs for receiving sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude, allowing independent refiners to circumvent U.S. restrictions while shielding major state-owned operators from scrutiny. Diamondback Energy is expanding its Permian Basin footprint with a $4.1 billion acquisition of Double Eagle IV, paid through $3 billion in cash and stock, adding 27kb/d of production while prioritising efficiency and free cash flow amid a wave of industry consolidation. The G-7 is considering tightening the Russian oil price cap to curb Moscow’s war revenues and push for a negotiated peace in Ukraine, though details remain unclear and the plan faces diplomatic hurdles amid shifting U.S. foreign policy under Trump. Turkey’s largest oil refiner, Tupras, has halted Russian crude purchases due to U.S. sanctions, with final shipments arriving in February, marking a significant shift after Russian oil made up 65% of Turkey’s imports in 2024. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $2.56/bbl respectively.

After softening this morning, the Apr’25 Brent futures contract saw steady strength this afternoon, rising from $74.45/bbl at 1215 GMT up to $75.10/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have ultimately remained rangebound today as markets await further developments toward potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks. In the news today, while OPEC+ is considering pushing back a series of monthly supply increases due to begin in April, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ producers are not looking to delay the April production hikes, Russia’s RIA news agency reported. In other news, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) reported a drone attack on its largest crude oil pump station in Russia, known as PS Kropotinskaya. The CPC operates a pipeline from northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port on Russia’s Black Sea coast, which carries around 80% of Kazakh crude exports. Currently, PS Kropotkinskaya is out of service and the CPC pipeline is operating at reduced flow rates. Finally, Iraq’s Minister of Oil, Hayan Abdulghani, said in a statement that no obstacles remain to the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan, with expectations for exports to take place by early March, according to Kurdistan24. After almost two years since the start of the dispute between Iraq and Kurdistan, Iraq’s Minister of Oil claims that Baghdad could now receive 300kb/d from the region. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.29/bbl and $2.28/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract increased from $75.45/bbl at 1200 GMT this afternoon up to $75.80/bbl at 1330 GMT, where prices sold-off to $74.85/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US aims to squeeze Iran’s oil exports to less than 10% of current levels, Bloomberg reported. “We are committed to bringing the Iranians to going back to the 100kb/d of oil exports” shipped during the first Trump administration, Bessent said in a Fox Business interview. In other news, ADNOC Drilling plans to borrow $1 billion from banks in 2025 to refinance expiring debt, the company’s CFO Youssef Salem told Bloomberg Television. Salem said “We expect to be refinancing and up-sizing to fund our growth”, stating the company has roughly $750 million in debt maturing in the fourth quarter. Finally, China has begun drilling ultra-deep oil and gas wells in the Taklimakan Desert, located in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. One well, the Manshen 72-H6 in Xayar County is planned to reach a depth of 8,735 metres. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.31/bbl and $2.33/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has made a recovery after weakness this morning, trading from around $74.10/bbl at 1300 GMT up to $75.00/bbl at 1730 GMT. In the news today, President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not accept any bilateral agreement reached by Russia and the US without Kyiv’s involvement. The Kremlin responded that Ukraine would “of course” be involved in peace talks but that there would be a separate US-Russian channel for negotiations, as per Reuters. In other news, Hamas stated it is willing to proceed with the Gaza ceasefire deal, agreeing to release the next three Israeli hostages this weekend in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. This came as the 42-day Gaza ceasefire appeared close to failure this week with Israel and Hamas accusing the other of violating the peace deal. Finally, Syria is struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders as shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels to the country in case they are detained, according to an Argus report. In January, Syria’s transitional government issued tenders seeking 4.2mb of crude oil, 80kt of 90 RON gasoline, and 100kt of fuel oil and gasoil, all of which closed earlier this month. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.36/bbl and $2.48/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, declining from $76.35/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $75.35/bbl at 1720 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment this afternoon, with EIA stats released today at 1530 GMT for the week to 07 Feb showing a larger-than-expected 4.07mb build in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, OPEC has released its February oil market report, forecasting global oil demand in 2025 to grow by 1.4mb/d y/y, largely unchanged from January’s assessment. OPEC projects OECD oil demand to grow by 0.1mb/d y/y and by 1.3mb/d In the non-OECD region, mostly driven by Chinese demand. Total world oil demand is anticipated to average 106.6mb/d in 2026. In other news, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the country complied with its OPEC+ output quota in January and February so far, quoted by Russian news agency Interfax. Meanwhile, Indian refiners are reconfiguring insurers and vessel owners to continue receiving cheaper Russian oil without violating US sanctions on Russian oil exports, anonymous industry executives told Bloomberg. Finally, CNPC and Kazakhstan’s KazTransGas have signed an agreement increasing the contracted gas volume for the 2024-25 supply year by one-third, according to Xinhua news agency. CNPC also finalized a crude oil spot purchase agreement with Tengizchevroil, though specific contract volume figures were not disclosed, as per S&P Global. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $2.47/bbl, respectively.

Apr’25 Brent futures failed to maintain strength above $77.00/bbl this afternoon and softened to $76.46/bbl at 15:22 GMT before recovering to around $76.94/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Russian oil production fell below its OPEC+ quota in January, alleviating fears of oversupply. Output dropped to 8.962 mb/d, coming in at 16 kb/d under the approved level set by the production agreement. Petro-Victory Energy, in a 50/50 partnership with Azevedo & Travassos Petroleo, acquired 13 oil fields spanning 38,301 acres in Brazil’s Potiguar Basin. The deal adds 125mb of oil in place, boosting production capacity and proven reserves by 50%. The US Dollar stays flat for a second day, with the DXY holding above 108.00. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled no rush to adjust rates, while the Greenback remains fairly unfazed by Trump’s 15% steel and aluminium tariff, set for March 12. Chinese retaliatory tariffs targeting US coal and LNG came into play today. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $2.86/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract ultimately saw marginal strength this afternoon, increasing from $75.60/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $76.05/bbl at 1715 GMT, before tapering to $75.85/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Bullish sentiment has pushed crude oil prices higher to start the week despite US tariff concerns, with traders seeing good buying opportunity after last week’s decline. In the news today, India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said the country plans to launch new oil and gas licensing rounds as early as this week, with a meeting between US President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi scheduled later this week. In other news, Russia’s crude output fell to 8.962mb/d in January, 16kb/d below its target under the OPEC+ supply agreement, according to Energy Ministry figures seen by Bloomberg. Russia has pledged to submit an updated schedule for oil production cuts to compensate for past overproduction, though none has been published. Finally, Moldova’s pro-Russian breakaway Transdniestria region is expected to begin receiving natural gas supplies under a loan provided by Moscow, as per Reuters. This followed widespread power cuts after Russian natural gas shipments to the region were halted on 1 Jan. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.46/bbl and $2.75/bbl, respectively.