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See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October oil market report, alongside concerns of conflict escalation in the Middle East. In the news today, the IEA has released their oil market report for October, showing global oil demand is set to increase by just 862kb/d this year due to decelerating demand in China. This latest estimate is down from the 903kb/d forecast published in the September IEA report. In other news, Israeli troops have begun clearing landmines near Golan Heights, signalling a potential expansion of ground operations against Hezbollah for the first time further east along Lebanon’s border, according to Reuters. Finally, Russian refinery maintenance has pushed the country’s oil exports to their highest level in three months. Average oil exports inched up by 7kb/d to 3.33mb/d in the four weeks to 13 Oct, as per data compiled by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.53/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract continued to weaken this morning, falling from $74.80/bbl at 08:25 BST to briefly dropping below $74/bbl at 10:20 BST. While the benchmark crude futures contract found support here, it fell to $73.88/bbl at 11:35 BST (time of writing).
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October oil market report, alongside concerns of conflict escalation in the Middle East. In the news today, the IEA has released their oil market report for October, showing global oil demand is set to increase by just 862kb/d this year due to decelerating demand in China. This latest estimate is down from the 903kb/d forecast published in the September IEA report. In other news, Israeli troops have begun clearing landmines near Golan Heights, signalling a potential expansion of ground operations against Hezbollah for the first time further east along Lebanon’s border, according to Reuters. Finally, Russian refinery maintenance has pushed the country’s oil exports to their highest level in three months. Average oil exports inched up by 7kb/d to 3.33mb/d in the four weeks to 13 Oct, as per data compiled by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.53/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed weakness throughout the morning, trading at $78.09/bbl at 07:00 BST and falling to just above the $77.00/bbl handle at 11:15 BST (time of writing). Price action has been weak amid a continuing lack of confidence in China’s economic stimulus to combat deflation and increases in Libyan crude output. In the news today, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) stated that Libyan crude production has recovered to 1.3mb/d, reaching levels seen before the political dispute over Libya’s central bank. In other news, the US said it will send US troops to Israel along with an advanced anti-missile system. US President Biden has stated that this decision was meant to “defend Israel”, according to Reuters. US officials have yet to announce how quickly their forces will be deployed. Finally, China’s first ultra-deepwater field, Deep Sea 1, is reported to have produced 9 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 900,000 cubic meters of oil to date, as per Xinhua. This development comes as the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) seeks to reduce the country’s reliance on foreign hydrocarbons. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.80/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened slightly this afternoon, trading at $77.27/bbl at 12:00 BST and moving up to $77.36/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). Despite a mid-afternoon rally to $78.10/bbl at 14:50 BST, price action saw downward pressure amid OPEC’s cut to their oil demand forecast. In the news today, OPEC, in their Oct’24 monthly oil market report, has reduced their forecast for global oil demand growth from 2.03mb/d to 1.93mb/d for 2024, as per Reuters. Poor Chinese demand accounted for most of this reduction, trimmed down by OPEC from 650kb/d to 580kb/d in the report. In other news, Israeli forces have intensified their strikes on north Gaza, shifting their focus to the city of Jabalia. At least 10 people were killed in an Israeli attack on a food distribution centre in the city, according to Palestinian medics. Meanwhile, in China, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has begun air force, navy, and army drills in the Taiwan Strait. Senior Captain Li Xi of the PLA said this display serves “as a stern warning to separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces”. Finally, Algeria is set to announce a new oil and gas licensing round, in which majors including Exxon, Chevron, Eni, and Sinopec are expected to bid, according to Reuters. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.42/bbl and $1.85/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed weakness throughout the morning, trading at $78.09/bbl at 07:00 BST and falling to just above the $77.00/bbl handle at 11:15 BST (time of writing). Price action has been weak amid a continuing lack of confidence in China’s economic stimulus to combat deflation and increases in Libyan crude output. In the news today, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) stated that Libyan crude production has recovered to 1.3mb/d, reaching levels seen before the political dispute over Libya’s central bank. In other news, the US said it will send US troops to Israel along with an advanced anti-missile system. US President Biden has stated that this decision was meant to “defend Israel”, according to Reuters. US officials have yet to announce how quickly their forces will be deployed. Finally, China’s first ultra-deepwater field, Deep Sea 1, is reported to have produced 9 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 900,000 cubic meters of oil to date, as per Xinhua. This development comes as the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) seeks to reduce the country’s reliance on foreign hydrocarbons. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.80/bbl, respectively.
This afternoon, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed gradual upward movement, trading at $78.65/bbl at 12:00 BST and inching up to $79.04/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). We saw some volatility in price action, with an intraday high of $79.47/bbl just before 16:00 BST, amid further conflict in Lebanon and the release of a Platts survey showing an overall decline in OPEC+ oil production. In the news today, the United Nations said that two of its peacekeepers were injured by explosions near its Naqoura headquarters in southern Lebanon, prompting criticism of Israel from European governments such as Germany and France, according to Bloomberg. In other news, the Platts OPEC+ survey has shown a 500kb/d drop in oil production for September, owing to the halt in Libyan output and improved compliance from Iraq. Lastly, Russia’s Omsk refinery, the country’s largest by production volumes, has increased crude processing by 4% y/y from January to September, according to the state-owned giant Gazprom. The company claims the Omsk refinery processed almost 426kb/d of oil throughout 2023. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.49/bbl and $2.28/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, trading at $77.13/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to $77.72/bbl around 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid mounting concerns of a potential Israeli strike on Iran and expected supply disruption due to Hurricane Milton. In the news today, following a statement from Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warning that any retaliation against Iran would be “lethal” and “surprising”, Israel has continued their airstrikes in southern Lebanon today, resulting in the death of 5 emergency workers according to the Lebanese health ministry. In other news, Exxon is planning to increase its crude oil production offshore Guyana by 18kb/d, according to Bloomberg. The increase in output is due to come from Exxon’s Unity platform, whose total capacity will increase to 270kb/d from 250kb/d, on the condition that approval from local authorities has been obtained and necessary risk assessments are complete. Finally, Saudi Aramco is expected to provide 42-43mb of crude supplies to Chinese customers for November-loading, compared to around 44mb for October, as per Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $2.09/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off further this afternoon, trading at $76.89/bbl at 12:00 BST and weakening to an intraday low of $75.19/bbl at 15:20 BST, before recovering to $76.75/bbl at 17:05 BST (time of writing). Prices initially weakened on Chinese demand concerns but rallied following an EIA stats reading at 15:30 BST, which showed a lower than expected build of 5.8mb compared to yesterday’s API forecast of 1.95mb. In the news today, the ports of Tampa, Manatee, Port Canaveral, and Jacksonville have been shut, according to the US Coast Guard. Commercial ships are restricted from entering the ports and cargo loading operations have been suspended. Meanwhile, Chevron has begun redeploying staff to oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, including the Blind Faith platform, as they largely avoid the path of Hurricane Milton. In other news, US President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed Israel’s plans for a retaliation on Iran, according to Reuters. The phone call between the two leaders was reportedly their first known chat since August, with Netanyahu promising Iran will face consequences for its missile attack on Israel. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.67/bbl, respectively.
This week, the market remained about as relaxed as a bull on Redbull. A few drowsy comments from “Sleepy Joe” were enough to get everyone on edge as we hit the one-year mark since the October 7th Hamas attacks. But the real action came when investors started sweating over China, thanks to the NDRC. Turns out, unless people start swiping those credit cards like it’s Black Friday, all that monetary stimulus is about as useful as an umbrella in a hurricane. Speaking of storms, the EIA data offered a bit of good news for the bulls. Crude stocks didn’t pile up as high as expected, and commercial oil stockpiles dropped faster than my motivation on a Monday—over 8mb gone, with gasoline inventories taking a 6.3mb plunge. Refiners were busy, cranking out 21.2mb/d of products, with 9.7 million of that being gasoline. It seems U.S. demand is chugging along, possibly boosted by some good old hurricane panic-buying.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, trading at $77.13/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to $77.72/bbl around 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid mounting concerns of a potential Israeli strike on Iran and expected supply disruption due to Hurricane Milton. In the news today, following a statement from Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warning that any retaliation against Iran would be “lethal” and “surprising”, Israel has continued their airstrikes in southern Lebanon today, resulting in the death of 5 emergency workers according to the Lebanese health ministry. In other news, Exxon is planning to increase its crude oil production offshore Guyana by 18kb/d, according to Bloomberg. The increase in output is due to come from Exxon’s Unity platform, whose total capacity will increase to 270kb/d from 250kb/d, on the condition that approval from local authorities has been obtained and necessary risk assessments are complete. Finally, Saudi Aramco is expected to provide 42-43mb of crude supplies to Chinese customers for November-loading, compared to around 44mb for October, as per Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $2.09/bbl, respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off further this afternoon, trading at $76.89/bbl at 12:00 BST and weakening to an intraday low of $75.19/bbl at 15:20 BST, before recovering to $76.75/bbl at 17:05 BST (time of writing). Prices initially weakened on Chinese demand concerns but rallied following an EIA stats reading at 15:30 BST, which showed a lower than expected build of 5.8mb compared to yesterday’s API forecast of 1.95mb. In the news today, the ports of Tampa, Manatee, Port Canaveral, and Jacksonville have been shut, according to the US Coast Guard. Commercial ships are restricted from entering the ports and cargo loading operations have been suspended. Meanwhile, Chevron has begun redeploying staff to oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, including the Blind Faith platform, as they largely avoid the path of Hurricane Milton. In other news, US President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed Israel’s plans for a retaliation on Iran, according to Reuters. The phone call between the two leaders was reportedly their first known chat since August, with Netanyahu promising Iran will face consequences for its missile attack on Israel. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.67/bbl, respectively.
After initial choppy price action this morning, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off, trading at $77.86/bbl at 07:00 BST and marginally weakening to $77.82/bbl at 11:00 BST, before plummeting to $76.79/bbl just before 11:30 BST (time of writing). Brent prices showed volatility with the EIA slashing their global oil demand growth forecast by 300kb/d to 1.2mb/d, alongside fears of intensifying conflict in the Middle East. In the news today, Hezbollah is targeting Israeli soldiers with artillery near the Lebanese border village of Labbouneh, according to Reuters. However, Hezbollah also signalled that it may be open to a ceasefire with Israel, no longer conditional on a simultaneous truce in Gaza. In other news, Hurricane Milton is due to move through the across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in Florida today, with a current wind speed of around 160 mph, according to the US National Hurricane Centre. Due to mass evacuation, at least 21.6% stations in Florida were out of gas at 04:00 BST this morning, as per data from gasoline analyst Patrick De Haan. In addition, around 65kb/d of US Gulf Coast oil output is shut-in, amid port restrictions in preparation for the storm. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.39/bbl and $1.62/bbl, respectively.
