Distillates

After this morning’s rally on the back of substantial monetary policy easing announcements in China, the Nov’24 Brent futures contract dipped over the course of this afternoon, trading at $75.51/bbl at 12:00 BST and declining to $74.90/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Price action has been volatile amid escalation of conflict in Lebanon and another hurricane threatening the US Gulf Coast. In the news today, as the Libyan political standoff continues to stall crude oil output, Libya’s exports have crashed to 400kb/d for this month compared to 1mb/d in August, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Reuters. Analytics from Kpler showed that most of these cargoes were headed to Italy and Greece, with some travelling to China and Canada. In other news, the US State Department and Global Affairs Canada are in negotiations over the maritime boundaries of the Beaufort Sea, according to Bloomberg. Overlapping between the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and the north of Alaska, the Beaufort Sea is thought to contain a potentially oil-rich seabed and is of particular importance as China and Russia seek to explore more resources and trade routes in the Arctic. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.68/bbl and $1.82/bbl, respectively.

After sideways price action this afternoon, Nov’24 Brent futures contract gradually fell from $74.69/bbl at 12:00 BST down to $73.16/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing). In the news today, China’s Russian oil imports have jumped 25.6% m/m in August as Beijing took advantage of cheaper crude prices, according to data from the Chinese General Customs Administration. Meanwhile, Chinese crude imports from Iraq rose by 43.1% m/m in August and imports from Saudi Arabia fell by 17%, as per data compiled by Russian news agency Interfax. In other news, after Israel’s defence minister announced this morning that attacks against Lebanon would escalate, aerial strikes have now killed at least 182 people, making it the deadliest day in nearly a year of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. As the conflict worsens, the potential for Iran to become more involved in backing Hezbollah has stoked concerns of Iranian oil exports being disrupted. Finally, possible strikes at the end of the month by dockworkers at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports could cause major delays in shipments. According to an Oxford Economics report, the strike could involve up to 45,000 workers at ports that account for roughly 60% of US shipping traffic. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.69/bbl and $1.77/bbl, respectively.

The Nov’24 Brent futures price inched up this afternoon from $74.59/bbl at 12:00 BST to $74.76/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Russia has boosted its use of sanctioned tankers to export oil, demonstrating the country’s continued success in defying US and EU restrictions. Six oil tankers sanctioned by the UK, EU, or US, loaded oil cargoes from Russia in August and September, as per data compiled by Bloomberg. Furthermore, at least 17 tankers, the majority owned by Sovcomflot, have been reported leaving Russian ports with crude oil since the end of April. In response, the US has asked at least one shipping insurer for information on 14 companies it suspects violated sanctions on Russian crude oil. In other news, India’s August crude oil imports rose 6.4% y/y to 19.9 million tons, up the most since May according to data published by the Indian oil ministry’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell. Finally, TotalEnergies is set to develop $9 billion worth of oil resources in Suriname, reportedly ordering a hull for a 200 kb/d production vessel. Crude oil discoveries In Suriname have opened access to some 2.4 billion barrels in reserves, Wood Mackenzie analysts estimated. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.81/bbl and $2.14/bbl, respectively.

The Nov’24 Brent futures contract showed volatility this afternoon but ultimately strengthened from $74.30/bbl at 12:00 BST to $75.67/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing), indicating a possible continuation of recent bullish sentiment. In the news today, ING, the largest bank in the Netherlands, has stopped funding upstream oil companies that continue to develop new field licenses. This halt in financing serves as part of the Dutch bank’s 2024 policy to tackle climate change and aid the country’s transition into a low-carbon economy. In other news, Tokio Marine Kiln (TMK) have set up insurance for ports to provide cover against trade disruption such as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and risk of strikes at US terminals. According to Reuters, the insurance policy offers cover up to a limit of $50 million per incident and states there are no geographical limits as to where the disruption event may take place. Finally, sources told S&P Global that China’s Huaxing Petrochemical refinery is still operational despite bankruptcy, producing a total 140 kb/d. However, the 100 kb/d Zhenghe Petrochemical refinery, also declared bankrupt, now remains offline. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.82/bbl and $2.11/bbl, respectively.

The Nov’24 Brent Futures contract was volatile this afternoon, trading at $72.77/bbl at 12:00 BST and oscillating up to a high of $73.85/bbl around 16:20 BST before correcting to the $73.15/bbl handle by 17:00 BST (time of writing). This volatility could be attributed to market players adjusting their positions, both in cautious anticipation of the US Fed rate cut this evening and in reaction to EIA data for the week ending 13 Sep, showing that US crude oil inventories fell by 1.63 mb and production was down by 100 kb/d. According to a Reuters poll, analysts had predicted a 500 kb decline in US crude inventories, indicating that last week’s Hurricane Francine may have caused a greater drawdown than expected. In the news today, Bloomberg has estimated that Russian crude oil revenues have dropped by 30% since June, largely due to international benchmark prices falling and depressing the value of cheap Russian crude. This decline in Russian crude comes despite the fact the country’s oil exports averaged 3.21 mb/d for the four weeks leading up to 15 Sep, 80 kb/d higher than the four-week average to the week of 8 Sep. In other news, as the market becoming increasingly divided on the Fed action, former Cleveland Fed President Mester has said today she favours a series of 25 bps cuts rather than a 50 bps cut. Whilst Fed funds futures predicted a 61% chance of a 50 bps cut, major brokerages now expect a 25 bps cut including Goldman Sachs, Nomura, and Deutsche Bank. Whichever move the Fed makes at 19:00 BST, either cut will likely cause further volatility in crude prices. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.76/bbl and $1.78/bbl, respectively.

Nov’24 Brent Futures flat price rallied from $72.59/bbl at 12:00 BST up to $74.20/bbl handles at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Venezuela’s largest oil refinery, the Amuay refinery, has been reported as offline since 12 Sep due to a power failure, according to Reuters. The refining facility has a capacity to process 645 kb/d and suffers frequent power outages due to a chronic lack of investment. In other news, two Chinese refineries, Zhenghe Group and Shandon Huaxing Petrochemical Group, were declared bankrupt today after creditors failed to agree on restructuring plans for the refineries, as stated by Bloomberg. The processing units at these plants have not been operational for several months due to refinery margins plunging, particularly in Shandong. Finally, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir has agreed with the leader of Sudan, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to export crude oil via Sudan, following months of disrupted supply due to a damaged pipeline network amid civil war in Sudan. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $1.82/bbl, respectively.

Nov’24 Brent Futures flat price climbed this afternoon from $71.76/bbl at 12:00 BST to $72.50/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing). The increase in crude prices comes as players wait and watch for further directional cues ahead of the Fed meeting on 18 Sep. The market is still hindered by bearish sentiment, however, amid demand worries in China and offline capacity in the Gulf of Mexico. In the news today, there has been much speculation as to whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points. This will mark the first US interest rate cut since March 2020. Proponents of the view that the Fed will cut by 50 bps include Michael Feroli, analyst at JPMorgan, and Bill Dudley, the former New York Fed president and Bloomberg columnist. In contrast, Satyam Panday, chief US economist at S&P Global Ratings, foresees three cuts of 25 bps, one every Fed meeting for the rest of the year. Whichever way the Fed chooses to move on rates (25 or 50 bps), it is clear that the consensus is looking for a cut in the Sep/Nov and Dec meetings. In other news, in a note by Callum Bruce, Goldman Sachs has commented on oil price weakness, with Brent slipping below $70/bbl last week. Goldman Sachs claimed that Brent crude could recover to $77/bbl in Q4 ’24, on the condition that demand concerns abate, positioning and valuation recover, and OECD inventories remain somewhat below normal. However, their analysis also highlights the risk of comfortable inventory levels allowing the market to price in an expected 2025 supply surplus, potentially hampering recovery of crude prices. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.60/bbl and $1.51/bbl, respectively.

Nov’24 Brent Futures flat price saw a volatile afternoon but ultimately weakened, trading at $72.67/bbl at 12:00 BST and spiking to $73.21/bbl at around 15:25 BST, followed by a descent to $72.26/bbl at 17:30 (time of writing). The sell-off may be attributed to traders not wanting to keep long positions over the weekend, in addition to key Louisiana terminals reopening following now-tropical storm Francine. In news today, the port of New Orleans and the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port are back online, according to the US Coast Guard. Texas ports have also started accepting and servicing tankers, as per vessel monitoring data from LSEG. Meanwhile, Shell stated today that production is ramping up at five of their platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, however, the Perdido, Auger and Enchilada/Salsa platforms will remain shut due to other unspecified downstream issues. In other news, Macquarie revealed in a Friday note that its forecast for Brent crude has lowered by $2/bbl to $80/bbl for the rest of 2024, seeing potential for a heavy surplus of oil in 2025. The bank’s prediction follows both OPEC and the IEA lowering their global oil demand forecast this week. Finally, a Gazprom Neft-owned Moscow oil refinery has resumed operations, after a drone attack on 1 Sep halted production at refining unit Euro+, according to Reuters. The Euro+ unit accounts for half of the facility’s total production, with a refining capacity of 6 million metric tons of oil per year. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.59/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.

Nov’24 Brent Futures flat price initially dipped this afternoon, decreasing from $71.72/bbl at 12:00 BST down to a low of $71.08/bbl at 14:55 BST, before sharply rallying up to the $72.28/bbl handle at 17:30 BST (time of writing). The increase in price may have been due to a combination of new speculative long positions alongside the liquidation of existing short positions and stronger sentiment in the physical market. In the news today, Saudi Arabia is set to boost crude oil exports to China in October by around 3 mb, as Chinese state refiners PetroChina and Sinopec have asked Saudi Arabia for more supply. This could be a sign of China’s propensity to stock up on commodities at lower prices, with Saudi Arabia having reduced the price of Arab Light to Asia by $0.70/bbl for October. In other news, Giovanni Staunovo, UBS analyst, stated in a note to clients that Hurricane Francine may have disrupted the supply of up to 1.5 mb of crude, amounting to 50,000 bpd. The category 2 hurricane has since weakened to a tropical storm, decreasing from wind speeds of 100mph down to sustained speeds of 35 mph. Finally, the Kremlin has begun a counteroffensive in the Kursk region as Russian soldiers attempt to push back Ukrainian forces, corroborated by President Zelenskyy. Meanwhile, Moscow’s troops have been steadily advancing through Eastern Ukraine, approaching the logistical hub of Pokrovsk. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $1.41/bbl, respectively.