Crude

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European Window: Brent to $68.00/bbl

Jun’25 Brent futures softened in the early afternoon to sub-$66.70/bbl at 14:56 BST before it saw better strength. Although highs of over $68.00/bbl at 17:15 BST failed to be maintained, the contract corrected to $67.90/bbl at 17:22 BST (time of writing). President Trump posted on Truth Social that he and Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, are ‘on the same side of every issue.’. This follows the US hitting Iranian LPG tycoon Seyed Asadoollah Emamjomeh and his business network with new sanctions today, accusing them of moving hundreds of millions of dollars in oil and gas abroad. The move comes as nuclear talks with Tehran continue. Halliburton CEO Jeff Miller expressed a bleak outlook for Mexico’s oil sector, citing ongoing challenges as Pemex, the country’s heavily indebted state oil company, struggles with nearly $100 billion in debt and slumping production. Despite new laws to stabilise output, analysts like Fitch remain sceptical, noting that current plans lack the strategic overhaul needed for a significant turnaround. BW Energy has confirmed a major oil discovery at the Bourdon prospect in the Dussafu License offshore Gabon, estimating 56 mb of oil in place, with about 25 mb recoverable. At the time of writing, the Jun/Jul’25 and Jun/Dec’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.96/bbl and $3.00/bbl, respectively.

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Dubai Market Report – Back to Basics

The Brent/Dubai complex saw a bullish shift with May’25 Brent/Dubai surpassing -$1/bbl for the first time since mid-March. In contrast to flat price, differentials were unresponsive to OPEC+ speeding up its oil output hike. The bullish catalyst was Aramco cutting its May OSP to its lowest level in four years. Short covering flows from trade houses and funds exacerbated the upwards move.

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Dated Brent Supplementary Report – Liqui-dated Brent

It was a week of de-risking and quiet in the Dated Brent crude oil benchmark amid the Easter break. The North Sea Dated Brent physical differential has been rangebound this fortnight, climbing from under $1.05/bbl on 4 Apr to nearly $1.25/bbl on 11 Apr. The differential subsequently eased off to $1.155/bbl on 17 Apr – the last trading day before the long weekend.

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Early European Window: Brent Above $66.90/bbl

The Jun’25 Brent crude futures climbed steadily on Thursday, from around $66.20/bbl at 08:00 BST to $66.90/bbl by 13:30 BST, surpassing highs reached earlier in the morning. Prices are trading at their highest levels in two weeks, and are on track for their first weekly rise in three. New sanctions on Iranian oil exports have increased supply concerns. In the news, Russian Arctic oil exports to China have surged this month, driven by ship-to-ship transfers off Southeast Asia that help sanctioned cargoes avoid scrutiny, as Chinese refiners continue to buy despite rising costs and logistical hurdles. Russia has warned that new Estonian legislation allowing naval force against foreign vessels threatens Baltic Sea security, following Estonia’s recent seizure of a Russian-sanctioned ship from the so-called shadow fleet. A German heating oil platform saw record-breaking orders on April 9 as consumers rushed to stock up when crude prices plunged to four-year lows, highlighting price-sensitive buying behaviour in Europe’s largest heating oil market. Saudi Arabia’s expansion of refinery-integrated petrochemical units, including a new Aramco-Sinopec project at the Yasref site, is expected to further reduce naphtha exports as more volumes are redirected to steam crackers and aromatics production, with limited immediate impact on gasoline output. Finally, the front (Jun/Jul) and 6-month (Jun/Dec) Brent futures spreads are at $0.92/bbl and $2.80/bbl respectively.

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Trader Meeting Notes

Trader Meeting Notes: He (Brent) is risen!!

Appropriately for the season, this week has been one of renewed optimism. Headline fatigue feels pretty overwhelming, but margins are healthy, inflation in the States is down, and Cushing saw a weekly draw. So, whether it’s derisking, a weaker USD or genuine optimism, we have seen a w/w improvement in Brent this week. Easter bring a well-deserved break for the market after trading with constantly moving goalposts has become exhausting. US tariffs on some Chinese goods are up to 245%, which effectively acts as an embargo.

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European Window: Brent Bounces Above $66.00/bbl

This afternoon the Jun’25 Brent Futures contract saw prices rally to $66.07/bbl at 15:44 BST before coming down to $65.57/bbl at 16:14 BST. Prices have since gained some support and are at $66.09/bbl 18:20 BST (time of writing). In the news, Turkey’s top oil refiner, Tupras, has resumed purchases of Russian Urals crude after a pause earlier this year due to US sanctions, sources told Reuters. The move comes as Urals crude prices dropped below the Western price cap to their lowest since 2023. Tupras was a major importer of Russian oil post-2022, with it making up 65% of Turkey’s oil imports through most of 2024. US crude inventories rose by 515 kb last week to 442.9 mb, despite a sharp increase in exports to 5.1 mb/d. Gasoline and distillate stocks both declined (distillates fell by 1.9 mb and gasoline by 2mb). Crude stocks at Cushing fell by 654 kb , and refinery activity dipped slightly. Crude futures rose about 1.5% following the report. In other news, the US has imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, targeting a Chinese teapot refinery and several companies and vessels involved in facilitating Iranian crude shipments. The move is part of President Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign while negotiations over its nuclear program continue. Despite sanctions, China remains Iran’s top oil buyer, using yuan and intermediaries to bypass US restrictions. Finally the front month Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $2.60/bbl respectively.

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COT Report: After the Storm

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

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European Window: Brent Jumps Back to $64.70/bbl

The Jun’25 prompt Brent futures contract saw a volatile afternoon, with prices jumping quickly up to $65.13/bbl at 15:15 BST before dropping down to $ 64.24/bbl at 16:46 BST only to move up to $64.70/bbl at 18:20 BST (time of writing). In the news, Nigeria plans to establish a national strategic petroleum products reserve this year to protect its economy from global supply disruptions, according to the country’s petroleum regulator. It will be supported by expanding domestic refining, especially the 650kb/d Dangote Refinery and five smaller plants, which have already cut fuel imports significantly. India’s average crude oil import price dropped below $70/bbl this month for the first time since 2021, falling 17.87% from March to $69.39/bbl. This decline, driven by global trade and tariff tensions, may lead to lower fuel prices for consumers and increased purchases by refiners. With crude import dependence hitting a record 88.2% in the current fiscal year, India continues to rely heavily on imports amid flat domestic production. However, US trade policies and rising tariffs could dampen future growth. In other news, TotalEnergies expects a nearly 4% rise in Q1 oil and gas production. Its exploration and production division will benefit from higher output and slightly better prices than late 2024, while LNG results should improve year-on-year but fall short of Q4. Refining and chemicals are expected to remain flat due to weaker petrochemical and biofuel margins in Europe. Finally the front month Jun/Jul spreads and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $1.93/bbl respectively.

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Dated Brent Report – Reload

The Dated market has retreated from the bullish hysteria since our last report on 1 April. There, intense stop-out flows saw decade-high trading volumes in the DFL. While the physical was more quiet, the futures was a completely different beast, and we have covered the ‘Liberation Day’ fuelled sell-off extensively elsewhere. Futures weakness was at odds with Dated strength, and physical differentials above $1/bbl is a testament to that. It is now a WTI story, with Midland setting the curve. Gunvor was the preeminent bullish player, taking May expiry cargos and lifting WTI Midland cargos in the window. Recently, Total and BP were also buyers. However, the bullish sentiment has waned, with US-based sellers, like Exxon, entering the fray. There is better selling in the front of the curve by multiple players, especially on 14 April, and it remains to be seen how much lower they can push down the diffs, if they continue.

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European Window: Brent Falls to $64.30/bbl

The Jun’25 Brent futures contract rallied up to $65.81/bbl at 12:15 BST before falling off to $64.12 /bbl at 17:12 BST and have currently slightly bounced back up to $64.37/bbl at 17:32 BST (time of writing). OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 150 kb/d to 1.30 mb/d, citing weaker-than-expected Q1 data and US trade tariffs. It also trimmed its economic growth forecast for 2024 and 2025. Despite the cut, OPEC remains more optimistic than the IEA, which sees demand peaking this decade. Meanwhile, OPEC+ output dipped slightly in March due to lower production from Nigeria and Iraq, though Kazakhstan exceeded its quota again and plans to compensate for the overproduction in April. China’s crude oil imports surged to 12.mb/d in March, the highest since August 2023, driven by a rebound in Iranian and Russian oil flows. Customs data showed total imports at 51.41 million mt, up from early 2025 levels. Seaborne imports hit 10.6 mb/d, boosted by record Iranian crude arrivals in Shandong, while Russian oil also made a comeback via sanctioned and dark fleet tankers using ship-to-ship transfers. In other news, the Keystone oil pipeline, shut last week due to a 3,500-barrel leak near Fort Ransom, North Dakota, is expected to resume service by Tuesday, April 15, pending approval from US regulators. Operator South Bow isolated the affected segment and contained the spill, but authorities required further inspections, testing, and repairs before restart. Finally the front month Jun/Jul spreads and the 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.65/bbl and $ 1.92 /bbl respectively.

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Brent Forecast: 14th April 2025

Brent: Catching its breath? Last week, the tariff brinksmanship between the US and China saw China go toe-to-toe with escalatory reciprocal US tariffs, which ratcheted up to 145%. Yet, the rest of the world got a reprieve, with reciprocal tariffs

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Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

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ETFs Report

Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.

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European Window: Brent Rallies to $64.46/bbl

The Jun’25 Brent Futures contract saw prices dropping to $62.96 at 14:31 BST and have since rallied up to $64.12/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing). Two Chevron-chartered tankers carrying Venezuelan crude are stranded after PDVSA revoked their export clearances, following new US secondary tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers. Chevron, authorized to ship oil until late May, must now get customs approval to return the cargoes. A third tanker was blocked from loading. Chevron’s joint ventures produce 25% of Venezuela’s output and has exported some 250 kb/d to the US in the first quarter under its license, granted in 2022 . Recent US sanctions have disrupted exports with Venezuela calling them an “economic war.” In other news, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US could stop Iran’s oil exports as part of President Trump’s renewed pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program. Wright noted that halting Iran’s oil flow is “very doable,” pointing to similar efforts during Trump’s first term. While Iran’s oil exports rebounded under President Biden, they have yet to fall in 2025. China remains a major buyer, defying US sanctions. Wright didn’t detail how the US would enforce the new measures but stated that “everything is on the table,” including military options if diplomacy fails. He also predicted a positive outlook for oil markets under Trump’s policies, suggesting stable prices and improved profitability driven by deregulation and innovation. Despite no direct coordination with OPEC+, Wright said Gulf allies share the U.S. view that “the world needs more energy.” Finally, the front month Jun/July and 6-month Jun/Dec Brent future spreads are at $0.73/bbl and $2.10/bbl.

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COT Deep Dive – EBOB Crack

In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.

In this seventh edition, we take a look at the May’25 EBOB Crack swap. 
In this sixth edition, we take a look at the May’25 Mont Belvieu TET propane (C3 LST) swap. 

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