Crude oil derivatives are essential to the global economy, powering transportation, manufacturing, and financial markets.
Crude oil is refined into petroleum products such as gasoline, naphtha, fuel oil, LPG and diesel.
The Brent futures flat price for the Apr contract has seen a minor sell off this morning. Initial stability kept prices in the $83/bbl handles, before selling interest saw price action retrace downwards to $82.58/bbl at 09:55 GMT.
The Mar Brent futures contract has yet again strengthened throughout the day, reaching almost two-month highs of $81.51/bbl at 16:50 GMT and later retraced to trade at $81.47/bbl at 17:05 GMT (time of writing). WTI prices also found strong support and traded at $76.60/bbl at 17:00 GMT.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a relatively supported morning above the $80/bbl mark, rising from $80.31/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $81.20 at 10:00 GMT.
Amid a still-raging conflict and prompt oil in high demand, crude technical indicators were seen in overbought territory, but will the contracts hold strength in the near future? See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
The Mar Brent futures contract has been strengthening throughout the afternoon, reaching highs of $79.94/bbl at 16:30 GMT and later retraced to trade at $79.84/bbl at 17:05 GMT (time of writing). WTI prices also found support and traded at $74.80/bbl at 17:00 GMT. Geopolitical concerns continued to support the crude complex.
Mar Brent futures were seen supported over the last week amid uncertain fundamentals in the context of a still-raging conflict in the Red Sea.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a relatively stable morning. Initial weakness saw prices dip below the $78/bbl mark, falling to $77.84/bbl at 09:00 GMT, before buying interest saw price action climb back to $78.71/bbl
The Mar Brent futures contract has been strengthening throughout the afternoon, reaching highs of $79.18/bbl at 17:20 GMT (time of writing). WTI also found strength throughout the day with the Mar contract trading at $73.04/bbl at 14:00 GMT and later
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a relatively quiet morning reaching highs of $78.43/bbl at 08:00 GMT, before falling to $78.01 at 08:25 GMT and then coming off further to below the $78/bbl mark, hitting
As the Red Sea conflict re-intensified over the weekend, geographical arbitrages went anywhere but sideways. See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen weakness this morning, falling from highs of $78.62/bbl at 07:25 GMT to $77.80/bbl come 10:10 GMT. Following on the US and British forces launching airstrikes against the Houthi rebels
Brent prices were largely trading slightly upwards of this range, between the levels of $76-78/bbl, they surged into $80 territory on Jan 12 and currently (as of 16:45 GMT) sit at $78.60/bbl.
A year review of how fluctuating trends in oil derivatives compare to the performance of some Premier League football clubs in 2023.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a volatile morning. Initial support was seen with prices rising from $76.84/bbl at 03:00 GMT to $77.49/bbl at 07:15 GMT. Prices then swiftly retraced to $76.82/bbl at 08:40 GMT,
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a relatively volatile afternoon, initially rising over $1/bbl from $77.65/bbl at 12:10 GMT, to highs of $78.67/bbl at 15:10 GMT, before retracing back lower, down to $77.20/bbl at 16:15
As the oil market settled into its first week of 2024, so did the derivative contracts. Trading volumes returned, whilst the geopolitical risk premium surrounding attacks in the Red Sea faded. See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract saw an initial sell off in the early hours, falling from highs of $78.82/bbl at 00:10 GMT to high $77/bbl-handles for the majority of the morning, before dipping to $77.54/bbl at
Both crude benchmarks are set to recover losses seen on Thursday 4th Jan when prices settled lower on the back of bearish EIA stats which saw gasoline stocks register their highest weekly build in 30 years while at the same
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a relatively rangebound morning. Nevertheless, it has seen some support, rising from lows of $78.05/bbl at 08:30 GMT to reach highs of $78.68/bbl come 09:55 GMT. The US Navy
Nigeria’s Dangote refinery recently acquired 1mbbls of oil from the state-owned NNPC, its second crude oil cargo this month. What does this mean for movements in oil as we know them?
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has remained relatively rangebound this morning, falling no lower than $79/bbl. It managed to surpass the $80/bbl mark at 09:00 GMT to reach $80.10/bbl, before it retraced back down to $79.94/bbl
Houthi militant attacks on commercial vessels voyaging the red sea was a hot topic in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, with freight rates rallying, gasoil E/W sinking and LST/FEI stagnating.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a major rally this afternoon, strengthening by almost $2/bbl from $77.62/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $79.52/bbl at 16:35 GMT. Brent approaches the $80/bbl mark once again as continuous attacks
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a sell off this morning, falling from highs of $77.39/bbl at 06:55 GMT to $76.08/bbl at 10:00 GMT. Goldman Sachs group has cut its Brent forecast for 2024 by
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a stronger morning, rising from $74.50/bbl-handles, which were seen for the majority of the early hours, to $75.37/bbl at 09:30 GMT. The Fed held interest rates for a third
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a stronger afternoon, rising almost $1/bbl from $73.46/bbl at 12:00 GMT to highs of $74.33/bbl at 16:45 GMT. The EIA announced a second consecutive crude inventory draw, with stocks
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a sell off this morning, falling from highs of $76.48/bbl at 07:10 GMT to flirt with the $75/bbl barrier at 11:00 GMT, where it was only 2c above at
This week’s COT follows the OPEC+ meeting announcing underwhelming cuts, amounting to a sheep in wolf’s clothing.
To say the least, Q4 has been a volatile quarter so far for the gasoline complex, with prices for the crack spread seeing a U-shaped trend. Weakening US fundamentals on the back of increasing RINs supply was one of the
Daily net flows in Jan Brent/Dubai have been heavily skewed toward the sell-side from the middle of November with the 7-day trading split sitting 30:70 on a long:short basis. Market dynamics are tentative as the looming OPEC+ meeting dominates sentiment,
This week’s COT report tackles the ongoing market behaviour, with OPEC+ postponing their next meeting and the EIA announcing another build of almost 10mbbls for US crude inventories.
Crude: CFDs are riding the long wave, but how high are we expecting this tide to go?
Fuel – Dec 0.5 Barge Crack: strutting its stuff, but brace yourself for a price reversal – it’s the rollercoaster you never asked for!
Distillates – To quote Ned Stark, winter is coming (for Japan) – giving Regrade a bit of an upgrade
Nigeria has officially launched a new grade of crude oil, Nembe.
The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price dropped to around $76.15/bbl at 1400 GMT to $74.90/bbl at 1715 GMT (time of writing) as it broke back below the 50-day moving average today. JODI data reported that China’s total product demand fell by 17 kb/d this month, while total product imports increased by 96 kb/d. Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported that oil production has declined to 1.405 mb/d. The US is pressuring Iraq to resume Kurdish oil exports, warning of sanctions over ties to Iran. Baghdad plans to restart exports next week, but payment and logistics disputes remain. According to Fox News Radio, President Trump stated that it is “not important” for Zelenskyy to attend peace meetings. The front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $2.35/bbl, respectively, at the time of writing.
The Apr’25 Brent Futures contract was rangebound this afternoon, trading between $76.25/bbl and $76.60/bbl until around 16:00 GMT, after which it rallied to $77.02/bbl, where it sits at the time of writing (17:20 GMT). EIA statistics highlighted a 4.63mb build in crude stocks while distillates and gasoline drew 2.05mb and 0.15mb, respectively. In headlines, Texas based refiner HF Sinclair Corporation reported a Q4 2024 adjusted net loss of $191 million, missing analyst expectations due to declining refining margins driven by high global fuel supply and lower sales volumes. While other major refiners like Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 also faced profitability challenges, they exceeded analyst forecasts. Germany’s antitrust authority called for stronger regulation of oil price quotations, citing vulnerabilities to manipulation due to limited data and market participant dominance in price reporting. Meanwhile, Japanese oil firm Japex is refocusing on oil and gas after poor returns in renewables, citing rising costs in offshore wind projects. The company aims to acquire a US shale operator by 2026 and increase oil and gas investments through 2030, following a trend set by major energy firms like Shell, Equinor, and BP, which have also scaled back renewable energy commitments. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.47/bbl and $2.74/bbl respectively.
Front-month Brent futures has been more supported this week. We initially oscillated between $74 and $75/bbl before breaking into the $76/bbl handle. The $77/bbl handle remains a critical resistance level, which the M1 futures contract is now flirting with at $76.95/bbl at the time of writing. The market is riddled with uncertainty surrounding the timeline for the war in Ukraine. While the US appears determined to negotiate a deal with Russia, leaving Ukraine out of the meeting room may cause some friction. On top of this, we continue to see news of drone strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine, highlighting that the market may continue to price in geopolitical risk. On the other hand, OPEC+ is considering postponing its deadline to inject supply into the market for a fourth time, which further helped place a floor on oil prices. Still, US crude oil supplies saw a 4.6mb build in the week ending 14 Feb, announced on 20 Feb. Meanwhile, gasoline has seen a slight w/w decline in inventories for the second consecutive week. This unseasonal draw in gasoline alongside a build in crude may indicate potential refinery maintenance, potentially lending bearish sentiment to crude demand. Hence, the oil market has several moving parts to consider, which may lead players to remain on the sidelines while waiting for more clarity. However, should Brent comfortably breach the $77/bbl resistance level, we may see the bulls emerge en-masse.
After the Apr’25 Brent futures rose from $76.30/bbl at 1300 GMT this afternoon to a weekly high of almost $76.80/bbl at 1440 GMT, before falling down to $76.25/bbl at 1735 GMT Overall, crude oil prices have been supported on fears of supply disruption, following the drone attack on the CPC pipeline oil flows and ongoing cold weather in the US. In the news today, oil flows from Iran to China rebounded in February after traders smoothed logistical bottlenecks caused by tighter US sanctions, seeing an increase in ship-to-ship transfers and use of alternative terminals, Bloomberg reports. In February, Iranian oil flows to China hit 1.7mb/d, a level last seen in Sep 2024 and up from 932kb/d in January, as per Kpler. In other news, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine would not be excluded from negotiations to end the war, but success would depend on raising the level of trust between Moscow and Washington, according to Reuters. Finally, India is scouting for overseas oil storage and is in talks with Oman to hold about 5mb of crude oil, L.R. Jain, the chief executive of Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves (ISPRL) stated. Jain told Reuters that this would be the first time that India will be holding storage overseas if a deal with Oman is reached. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $2.66/bbl, respectively.
This week, we have seen a good example of the dichotomy between Brent’s futures and the physical market that underpins it. In the physical, it seems that the market has found a floor this week. Equinor and Gunvor were running down the physical premium with good offering, but this has been met with better buying now. On 17 Feb, Glencore, PetroIneos, and Totsa were bidding for Forties and Midland, and we expect some better support here with good refiner buying seen with decent margins. Our view is that for this month, there is not a lot of crude left in loading cycles for the North Sea grades. This leaves Midland’s availability key to the strength of Dated. The cold weather in the US, along with fog issues at ports, could cause some issues here, from what has been some strong export levels from the States.
The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price saw a choppy afternoon, swinging by a dollar from $76 to $75/bbl before rising to $75.70/bbl by 17:00 GMT. According to a Bloomberg report, privately-run terminals in China, particularly in Shandong, Yangshan, and Huizhou, have become key hubs for receiving sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude, allowing independent refiners to circumvent U.S. restrictions while shielding major state-owned operators from scrutiny. Diamondback Energy is expanding its Permian Basin footprint with a $4.1 billion acquisition of Double Eagle IV, paid through $3 billion in cash and stock, adding 27kb/d of production while prioritising efficiency and free cash flow amid a wave of industry consolidation. The G-7 is considering tightening the Russian oil price cap to curb Moscow’s war revenues and push for a negotiated peace in Ukraine, though details remain unclear and the plan faces diplomatic hurdles amid shifting U.S. foreign policy under Trump. Turkey’s largest oil refiner, Tupras, has halted Russian crude purchases due to U.S. sanctions, with final shipments arriving in February, marking a significant shift after Russian oil made up 65% of Turkey’s imports in 2024. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $2.56/bbl respectively.
After softening this morning, the Apr’25 Brent futures contract saw steady strength this afternoon, rising from $74.45/bbl at 1215 GMT up to $75.10/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have ultimately remained rangebound today as markets await further developments toward potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks. In the news today, while OPEC+ is considering pushing back a series of monthly supply increases due to begin in April, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ producers are not looking to delay the April production hikes, Russia’s RIA news agency reported. In other news, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) reported a drone attack on its largest crude oil pump station in Russia, known as PS Kropotinskaya. The CPC operates a pipeline from northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port on Russia’s Black Sea coast, which carries around 80% of Kazakh crude exports. Currently, PS Kropotkinskaya is out of service and the CPC pipeline is operating at reduced flow rates. Finally, Iraq’s Minister of Oil, Hayan Abdulghani, said in a statement that no obstacles remain to the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan, with expectations for exports to take place by early March, according to Kurdistan24. After almost two years since the start of the dispute between Iraq and Kurdistan, Iraq’s Minister of Oil claims that Baghdad could now receive 300kb/d from the region. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.29/bbl and $2.28/bbl, respectively.
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract increased from $75.45/bbl at 1200 GMT this afternoon up to $75.80/bbl at 1330 GMT, where prices sold-off to $74.85/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US aims to squeeze Iran’s oil exports to less than 10% of current levels, Bloomberg reported. “We are committed to bringing the Iranians to going back to the 100kb/d of oil exports” shipped during the first Trump administration, Bessent said in a Fox Business interview. In other news, ADNOC Drilling plans to borrow $1 billion from banks in 2025 to refinance expiring debt, the company’s CFO Youssef Salem told Bloomberg Television. Salem said “We expect to be refinancing and up-sizing to fund our growth”, stating the company has roughly $750 million in debt maturing in the fourth quarter. Finally, China has begun drilling ultra-deep oil and gas wells in the Taklimakan Desert, located in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. One well, the Manshen 72-H6 in Xayar County is planned to reach a depth of 8,735 metres. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.31/bbl and $2.33/bbl, respectively.
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has made a recovery after weakness this morning, trading from around $74.10/bbl at 1300 GMT up to $75.00/bbl at 1730 GMT. In the news today, President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not accept any bilateral agreement reached by Russia and the US without Kyiv’s involvement. The Kremlin responded that Ukraine would “of course” be involved in peace talks but that there would be a separate US-Russian channel for negotiations, as per Reuters. In other news, Hamas stated it is willing to proceed with the Gaza ceasefire deal, agreeing to release the next three Israeli hostages this weekend in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. This came as the 42-day Gaza ceasefire appeared close to failure this week with Israel and Hamas accusing the other of violating the peace deal. Finally, Syria is struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders as shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels to the country in case they are detained, according to an Argus report. In January, Syria’s transitional government issued tenders seeking 4.2mb of crude oil, 80kt of 90 RON gasoline, and 100kt of fuel oil and gasoil, all of which closed earlier this month. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.36/bbl and $2.48/bbl, respectively.
This week reminded the market that we do not know what will happen next. The whipsaw of news seemed to pull the rug from under you as soon as you believed it. So what can we say really happened this week?
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, declining from $76.35/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $75.35/bbl at 1720 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment this afternoon, with EIA stats released today at 1530 GMT for the week to 07 Feb showing a larger-than-expected 4.07mb build in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, OPEC has released its February oil market report, forecasting global oil demand in 2025 to grow by 1.4mb/d y/y, largely unchanged from January’s assessment. OPEC projects OECD oil demand to grow by 0.1mb/d y/y and by 1.3mb/d In the non-OECD region, mostly driven by Chinese demand. Total world oil demand is anticipated to average 106.6mb/d in 2026. In other news, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the country complied with its OPEC+ output quota in January and February so far, quoted by Russian news agency Interfax. Meanwhile, Indian refiners are reconfiguring insurers and vessel owners to continue receiving cheaper Russian oil without violating US sanctions on Russian oil exports, anonymous industry executives told Bloomberg. Finally, CNPC and Kazakhstan’s KazTransGas have signed an agreement increasing the contracted gas volume for the 2024-25 supply year by one-third, according to Xinhua news agency. CNPC also finalized a crude oil spot purchase agreement with Tengizchevroil, though specific contract volume figures were not disclosed, as per S&P Global. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $2.47/bbl, respectively.
Apr’25 Brent futures failed to maintain strength above $77.00/bbl this afternoon and softened to $76.46/bbl at 15:22 GMT before recovering to around $76.94/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Russian oil production fell below its OPEC+ quota in January, alleviating fears of oversupply. Output dropped to 8.962 mb/d, coming in at 16 kb/d under the approved level set by the production agreement. Petro-Victory Energy, in a 50/50 partnership with Azevedo & Travassos Petroleo, acquired 13 oil fields spanning 38,301 acres in Brazil’s Potiguar Basin. The deal adds 125mb of oil in place, boosting production capacity and proven reserves by 50%. The US Dollar stays flat for a second day, with the DXY holding above 108.00. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled no rush to adjust rates, while the Greenback remains fairly unfazed by Trump’s 15% steel and aluminium tariff, set for March 12. Chinese retaliatory tariffs targeting US coal and LNG came into play today. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $2.86/bbl, respectively.
After the M1 Brent/Dubai contract fell to all-time lows in our last report, down to an intraday low of almost -$2.60/bbl on 28 Jan, there almost seemed no limit to bearish sentiment. However, the contract has found some momentary respite, recovering from a weekly low of around -$0.70/bbl on 07 Feb up to an intraday high of -$0.34/bbl on 11 Feb amid support in Brent crude. This resurgence was also a function of weakness in Dubai spreads, with the prompt Mar/Apr falling from over $1/bbl on 16 Jan to $0.70/bbl at the time of writing. Notably, trade houses were seen buying the front Dubai spreads against Onyx this week, buying almost 1.4mb and 500kb in the Mar/Apr and Apr/May Dubai spreads, respectively.
The North Sea Dated Brent physical differential continued to be pressured in the week ending 7 February, with Equinor and Gunvor on the sell side. The physical reached a low on 5 February at -$0.22/bbl before rising to $0.06/bbl by 10 February, with Glencore bidding for four cargoes of WTI Midland in the window.
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract ultimately saw marginal strength this afternoon, increasing from $75.60/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $76.05/bbl at 1715 GMT, before tapering to $75.85/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Bullish sentiment has pushed crude oil prices higher to start the week despite US tariff concerns, with traders seeing good buying opportunity after last week’s decline. In the news today, India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said the country plans to launch new oil and gas licensing rounds as early as this week, with a meeting between US President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi scheduled later this week. In other news, Russia’s crude output fell to 8.962mb/d in January, 16kb/d below its target under the OPEC+ supply agreement, according to Energy Ministry figures seen by Bloomberg. Russia has pledged to submit an updated schedule for oil production cuts to compensate for past overproduction, though none has been published. Finally, Moldova’s pro-Russian breakaway Transdniestria region is expected to begin receiving natural gas supplies under a loan provided by Moscow, as per Reuters. This followed widespread power cuts after Russian natural gas shipments to the region were halted on 1 Jan. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.46/bbl and $2.75/bbl, respectively.
The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price was lower on Friday afternoon after testing the $75/bbl resistance level, coming off to $74.35/bbl by 17:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude is on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, with players taking profit and selling into any rallies amid heightened volatility on the back of Trump’s actions. In the news, Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, has resumed regular light crude imports due to declining domestic production, as stalled trade with Iran and a gas supply shortage have worsened blending bottlenecks, despite increased exports and slight overall output growth. The European Union is discussing a deal to partially lift sanctions on Syria’s oil industry and banks, including removing bans on crude imports and energy financing, as part of efforts to support Syria’s transition under new President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, while some EU nations push for conditions limiting Russian influence in the country. Singapore-listed oil company Interra Resources is seeking legal advice to assess whether its subsidiaries violated foreign laws by supplying oil to military-controlled Myanmar, following allegations from activist group Justice for Myanmar, while also reviewing the adequacy of its risk controls amid Western sanctions on the nation. Chevron is accelerating the expansion of Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield, reaching 900kb/d in early February – well ahead of schedule – with full capacity of 1mb/d expected by June, complicating Kazakhstan’s efforts to stay within its OPEC+ production quota. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $2.46/bbl respectively.
The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price came off below the $75/bbl level on Thursday afternoon, trading at $74.42/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). As the US unveiled fresh sanctions on Iran, the first move under the Trump administration, prices spiked from $74.35/bbl to highs of $75.38/bbl before quickly retreating to $74.62/bbl. In other news, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signaled that he will not block the Rosebank oil and gas project, despite a court ruling against it, reaffirming his stance that existing licences will not be revoked while maintaining that oil and gas will remain part of the UK’s energy mix for decades. Following fresh US sanctions imposed on 10 January, Russia’s flagship Urals crude oil has dropped below the $60/bbl price cap for the first time since December. A new poll shows 82% of Canadians support imposing export taxes on oil if Donald Trump implements tariffs on Canadian goods, despite opposition from Alberta and Saskatchewan leaders, highlighting growing public backing for using Canada’s oil exports as leverage in potential trade conflicts with the U.S. Oil and gas traders are likely to seek waivers from Beijing over China’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., where 4 tankers, carrying 6mb of WTI and ANS crude, and 2 LNG vessels are currently en route to China. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.47/bbl and $2.65/bbl respectively.
This week reminded the market that we do not know what will happen next. The whipsaw of news seemed to pull the rug from under you as soon as you believed it. So what can we say really happened this week?
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract found support at just shy of $76.00/bbl at around 0300 GMT and strengthened through the morning to $76.55/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). President Trump issued executive orders on 1 Feb, which will take effect on 4 Feb, including a 25% on most goods from Mexico and Canada, a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Goldman Sachs sees minimal price impact, keeping its forecast unchanged after raising it last week, with its Brent forecast for 2025 raised to $78/bbl from $76/bbl. Iraq approved a budget amendment to restart Kurdish oil exports via Turkey, doubling payments to the Kurdish region to $16/bbl. PM Al-Sudani urged swift action after a year-long export halt over disputes. Nigeria aims to boost oil and condensate output to 2.7 mb/d by 2027 from 1.67 mb/d in December. This would allow Nigeria to remain within its OPEC+ crude quota as it will likely be a strong addition to condensate production. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.87/bbl and $3.75/bbl, respectively.
The re-election of President Trump has brought havoc and hysteria to oil market sentiment. Trump’s predictably unpredictable rhetoric and actions have created significant uncertainty and volatility for financial markets, which has reinforced large intraday swings in Brent futures and spreads. This filters into the Dated Brent market, where the financial meets the physical market. Physical differentials have taken a nosedive in line with weaker Brent spreads, falling to negative levels of -$0.18/bbl for the first time since early January. The herdy trading mentality of the Dated market was showcased once again, with the mighty BP, Equinor, Exxon, Gunvor, and Unipec offering a smorgasbord of cargos. Mercuria was, for the most part, alone on the buy side, taking one (many cargos) for the team.
The prompt April Brent Futures contract has seen a volatile afternoon, initially trading down from $75.09/bbl at noon to a low of $74.17 at 14:20 GMT before rallying to $76.65/bbl at 15:35 GMT and retracing some of its gains to print at $76.25/bbl at the time of writing (17:20 GMT). In headlines, Trump is expected to sign an executive order intensifying pressure on Iran, within which Iranian crude exports will be targeted. A presidential memorandum will direct the US Treasury to impose “maximum economic pressure” through sanctions and enforcement on violators, aiming to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero. Iranian oil revenue totalled $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion in 2022 according to US EIA data, with 2024 output at its highest since 2018, per OPEC. In other news, Equinor suspended production at the 755 kb/d Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea due to a power outage. Repair work is underway, and a restart plan is being developed, according to a company spokesperson. At the time of writing, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent Futures spreads are at $0.66/bbl and $3.30/bbl respectively.
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract witnessed a weaker afternoon, softening from $77.20/bbl at 14:10 GMT to $75.15/bbl at 15:25 GMT. The contract found support at this level and climbed to $75.75/bbl at 17:20 GMT (the time of writing).
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract found support at just shy of $76.00/bbl at around 0300 GMT and strengthened through the morning to $76.55/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). President Trump issued executive orders on 1 Feb, which will take effect on 4 Feb, including a 25% on most goods from Mexico and Canada, a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Goldman Sachs sees minimal price impact, keeping its forecast unchanged after raising it last week, with its Brent forecast for 2025 raised to $78/bbl from $76/bbl. Iraq approved a budget amendment to restart Kurdish oil exports via Turkey, doubling payments to the Kurdish region to $16/bbl. PM Al-Sudani urged swift action after a year-long export halt over disputes. Nigeria aims to boost oil and condensate output to 2.7 mb/d by 2027 from 1.67 mb/d in December. This would allow Nigeria to remain within its OPEC+ crude quota as it will likely be a strong addition to condensate production. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.87/bbl and $3.75/bbl, respectively.
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract fell to around $75.25/bbl at 1500 GMT before strengthening to $75.95/bbl at 1700 GMT (time of writing). The PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually, keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while core PCE increased 0.16% in December and 2.8% year-over-year. The 6-month annualized rate fell to 2.3%, the lowest in 2024. Libya’s NOC, under new acting chairman Massoud Suleman, aims to increase oil production and enhance transparency while considering office closures to streamline operations. Suleman also plans to work with authorities to end crude-for-fuel swaps and secure a stable budget for refined petroleum products. Exxon Mobil exceeded earnings expectations in Q4 despite lower oil prices, driven by strong production growth in Guyana and the Permian Basin. The company is increasing capital spending to over $30 billion annually, aiming to lower breakeven costs and sustain profitability while expanding LNG and crude production projects globally. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.77/bbl and $3.43/bbl, respectively.
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed from $75.40/bbl at 1400 GMT to see resistance around $76.50/bbl at 1540 GMT and is supported at just shy of $76.00/bbl at 1738 GMT (time of writing). Petrobras boosted reserves to 11.4 billion barrels in 2023, adding 1.3 billion barrels while producing 900 million. It plans to invest $111 billion from 2025-2029, with $77 billion for oil and gas exploration. Ukraine launched multiple drone strikes on Russian energy facilities, including a key oil refinery supplying Putin’s war effort. Oil flows at Russia’s Ust-Luga port were reportedly halted, supporting Kyiv’s claims of a successful attack on a pumping station. Shell expects an 85% reserve replacement ratio (RRR) for last year, indicating it replaced 85% of the oil and gas it produced. Over three years, its RRR averaged 108%. The company projects 2024 reserves at 9.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent. A judge ruled the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea unlawful, siding with Greenpeace and Uplift over missing emissions assessments. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.79/bbl and $3.38/bbl, respectively.
Gong Xi Fa Cai! Happy Year of the Snake to everyone in the oil market while they anxiously watch the front-month Brent futures contract tread around the low $77/bbl handle on the eve of expiry. The soon-to-be-prompt Apr ’25 Brent futures contract closed below $76/bbl on 29 Jan, where it found support and climbed to $76.40/bbl the following day (at the time of writing). Oil supply balances remain in flux as we await Mr Trump’s tariffs. For President Trump, tariffs are a means to achieve his goals, and he has made evident how far he is willing to go to weaponise them, including causing a near-explosion in the price of coffee in America by almost imposing tariffs on Colombia. It’s too soon, with eggs at record highs since Trump took office (Mr. President obviously does not like breakfast). Also in America, the Fed took a break from *“DEI, gender ideology, “green” energy and fake climate change”* and decided to maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.5%, citing elevated inflation. In Asia, while liquidity dried up for the New Year celebrations, China’s DeepSeek shook the tech industry worldwide, releasing an innovative and inexpensive AI model in a possible paradigm shift for AI. Finally, returning to the oil market, everyone will be awaiting the weekend, with 1 Feb being the White House’s deadline for imposing tariffs. It will be interesting to see how the market will be in the coming week, with calm waters on one side and the rough terrains of a possible trade war on the other.
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed to $76.40/bbl at 16:00 GMT, softened to $76.05/bbl at 16:20 GMT before climbing again to $76.40/bbl at 16:40 GMT. The crude futures contract again met resistance at this level and declined to $75.65/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing).
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed to $77.15/bbl at 14:05 GMT but softened subsequently, briefly weakening below $76/bbl at 16:50 GMT.
As the Middle Eastern crude market continues to tighten due to supply tightness fears from the prospect of further sanctions pressure on Russia, the front-month Feb’25 Brent/Dubai swaps contract reached an all-time flow of -$2.50/bbl, while the Feb/Mar box fell to -$1.90/bbl. However, ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, paper market flows have been less one-directional, with better selling interest observed in Dubai spreads and buying interest in Brent/Dubai. However, trade houses remain substantial sellers of Brent/Dubai boxes.
After coming off below $0.70/bbl on 20 Jan due to offers in the physical, the North Sea Dated Brent physical differential fell below $0.30/bbl on 23 Jan amid offers for WTI Midland and Ekofisk. The physical saw more support after this and climbed to $0.48/bbl on 27 Jan. This support emerged from Shell increasing its offer for WTI Midland in the window on 24 Jan, followed by Mercuria buying three cargoes of WTI Midland on 27 Jan.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract experienced a weaker afternoon, trading down from $78.16/bbl at midday to $76.76/bbl, where it trades at the time of writing (17:30 GMT) as concerns surrounding oil supply disruptions from Colombia eased. In headlines, Iraq’s Rumaila oilfield, its largest and one of the most productive in the world with a capacity of 1.5 mb/d has seen its output cut by 300 kb/d following a fire at the field last week. The incident occurred in a decommissioned storage tank at the fifth gas separation station (DS5) in northern Rumaila and was reportedly caused by “unidentified technical reasons,” according to the Iraqi oil ministry. Iraq currently has no timeline for restoring full production. Rumaila, operated in partnership with BP and PetroChina, accounts for roughly a third of Iraq’s total crude output, which has risen by 40% since 2010. In other news, teapot refiners in the Shandong province are under increasing financial pressure as new tariffs on imported feedstock came into effect on January 1, 2025. The import tariff on fuel oil was raised from 1% to 3%, while rebates on consumption taxes were reduced, significantly increasing operating costs. Many of these refiners, which lack sufficient crude import quotas, rely on fuel oil imports to produce transportation fuels like diesel and gasoline. Already struggling with narrow margins amid weak domestic fuel demand, at least four refiners have halted or plan to suspend operations indefinitely for maintenance. The Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 futures spreads have fallen to $0.84/bbl and $3.63/bbl, respectively.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract softened from $78.90/bbl at 1300 GMT to a low of sub-$78.00/bbl levels at 1615 GMT before rising to around $78.20/bbl at 1725 GMT (time of writing). Crude and gasoline prices dropped to two-week lows today, showing moderate declines. Crude oil faced pressure following remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who expressed willingness to discuss Ukraine and oil prices with President Trump, reducing concerns about potential additional US sanctions on Russian crude. Shell is set to report a lower annual profit for 2024, impacted by weak oil prices and declining demand for fossil fuels. The company is expected to announce earnings of £24.1 billion, down from £28.3 billion in 2023. The US Dollar Index dipped below 107.50 on Friday, facing intraday losses and a five-week low after US President Trump raised doubts about applying tariffs on China following a call with President Xi Jinping. The Bank of Japan’s 25 basis point rate hike significantly weakened the USD against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated today that India will continue purchasing discounted crude oil from Russia, emphasizing the government’s commitment to securing economically priced oil. He noted that India’s imports from Russia have risen from 0.2% in February 2022 to 30%. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.90/bbl and $3.79/bbl, respectively.
Brent softened this week as disbelief continued to be suspended for the promised (read: threatened) tariffs from the US, and the market digested and rebalanced following the rally to over $82.00/bbl last week on the news of new sanctions on Russia and Venezuela that included the Russian dark fleet.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract initially saw strength this afternoon, steadily climbing to $79.60/bbl around 1515 GMT, however, prices sold-off shortly after 1610 GMT down to $78.10/bbl at 1640 GMT, retracing to $78.65/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices faced bearish sentiment after US President Trump urged OPEC to lower oil prices and reiterated his tariff threats, as per Bloomberg. Trump also pledged to ensure Europe’s energy security while asserting that the US no longer needed Canadian oil and gas. Meanwhile, EIA data released today at 1700 GMT for the week to 17 Jan showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 1.02mb. In the news today, Donald Trump’s tariff threats aimed at strongarming Russia into ending the war in Ukraine have been badly received by some Russian politicians, with Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, stating Trump’s actions suggested he would not be able to bring peace to Ukraine, according to Reuters. In other news, a large part of Russia’s oil tanker fleet is being forced to change the flag they sail under after pressure from US and UK sanctions, as per Bloomberg. The Barbados ship registry said that by the end of January it will have asked 46 ships to remove the country’s flag as a result of the sanctions, while Panama’s ship registry said earlier this month it had begun to de-list 68 US-sanctioned vessels. In macroeconomic news, US jobless claims data released at 1330 GMT today edged higher to 223k, compared to a forecast of 221k. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.78/bbl and $3.69/bbl, respectively.
After this morning’s strength, Mar’25 Brent futures declined from just under $79.90/bbl at 1120 GMT down to this afternoon’s low of $78.87/bbl at 1500 GMT, recovering to $79.45/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment amid waning geopolitical risk, with the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire likely to be extended beyond next week, as per Bloomberg. In the news today, US President Donald Trump said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end the war in Ukraine, Reuters reports. Trump added that tariffs could also be applied to “other participating countries”, currently threatening a 10% tariff on China. In other news, Motiva’s 630kb/d Port Arthur refinery on the Texas Gulf Coast has shut multiple units due to winter storms. Meanwhile, the ports of Houston and Galveston remain shut as Freeport opens, as per Bloomberg. Finally, CNOOC said today that its net oil and gas production was about 720mb of oil equivalent for 2024, setting a record high for the sixth consecutive year. The company aims to maintain stable capital expenditure for 2025 while reaching a net production target of 760mb to 780mb. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.88/bbl and $4.17/bbl, respectively.
