Crude

This afternoon, the May’25 Brent futures contract initially strengthened up from $70.30/bbl at 1230 GMT up to $71.40/bbl at 1530 GMT. However, these gains reversed, falling to $70.25/bbl at 1740 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices found support after President Trump threatened sanctions on Russian banks if the country fails to work toward a ceasefire with Ukraine. In the news today, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ could reverse the decision to start increasing oil output from April if there are market imbalances. Meanwhile, officials from Kazakhstan speaking at an online briefing pledged to cut output in March, April, and May, according to Reuters. Nigeria’s oil production in February was 70kb/d above its OPEC+ quota of 1.5mb/d, amid higher exports and increased demand from the Dangote refinery. In other news, Shell has started first oil production from the next development phase of a deepwater oil project offshore Malaysia. Phase 4 of the Gumusut-Kakap project is expected to produce approximately 21k/d of oil equivalent. This forms part of Shell’s plan to develop new upstream projects between 2023-2025, projected to deliver and additional 500kb/d of oil equivalent at peak production. Finally, Russia attacked energy and gas infrastructure in Ukraine early on Friday, national gas firm Naftogaz said. Acting Naftogaz chairman Roman Chumak said Naftogaz gas production infrastructure has now come under attack for the seventeenth time. At the time of writing, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.31/bbl respectively.

The May’25 Brent futures contract declined from $69.85/bbl at 1230 GMT down to $68.75/bbl at 1640 GMT, however, has found support up to $69.45/bbl at 1810 GMT (time of writing). This afternoon saw a spike in crude oil prices at around 1720 GMT, after US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated the US will not hesitate to go “all in” on Russian energy sanctions and “shutdown” Iran’s oil sector, as per Bloomberg. In the news today, as of late February, independent refineries in China’s Shandong province have begun restarting their crude distillation units following a decline in fuel oil prices. The refineries have a combined capacity of 178kb/d, according to S&P Global. In other news, the US exported around 357kb/d of crude to India in February, according to vessel tracking data from Kpler. US crude exports to India hit an over 2-year high last month and are up significantly from exports of 221kb/d in February 2024. Finally, a US-sanctioned Russian oil-tanker has transported about 35,000 tons of diesel from Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk to Syria, as per Bloomberg. It is unclear whether the shipment is for Russian bases or the Syrian government. At the time of writing, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $2.23/bbl respectively.

The May’25 Brent futures contract has weakened this afternoon, trading from $70.20/bbl at 1200 GMT down to almost $68.35/bbl around 164 0 GMT, recovering to $69.10/bbl at 1740 GMT (time of writing). M1 Brent futures has now fallen to the lowest level seen since December 2021. Crude oil prices have declined following a larger-than-expected EIA build of 3.61mb in US crude oil inventories for the week to 28 Feb, alongside bearish sentiment surrounding the April OPEC+ output hike and Trump tariffs. In the news today, the US has now paused intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, CIA director John Ratcliffe said. This followed a halt to US military aid to Kyiv earlier this week, adding pressure on Ukraine to cooperate in peace talks. In other news, Russia saw its oil and gas revenues drop by 18.4% in February y/y, according to data from the Russian Finance Ministry cited by TASS. Finally, Egypt is inviting international companies to bid for 13 offshore and onshore blocks in a new licensing round to boost domestic oil and gas production. This includes three offshore blocks in the Gulf of Suez and three onshore exploration areas in Egypt’s Western Desert. At the time of writing, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.42/bbl and $1.97/bbl respectively.

The front-month Brent futures initially ticked up this afternoon, rising to $70.75/bbl at 14:10 GMT but dropped to a six-month low of $69.80/bbl at 15:05 GMT. The futures contract met support at this critical level and climbed to $70.80/bbl at the time of writing (17:45 GMT).

The prompt May 25 Brent Futures contract saw continued support from this morning’s window, slowly rising to $73.36/bbl at 14:35 GMT before rapidly falling to $72.32/bbl at 15:40 GMT only to further fall to $71.22/bbl at 18:20 (time of writing). The sudden drop in price comes as OPEC+ announces an increase of 138,000 b/d. Kazakhstan increased crude oil and gas condensate production by 13% in February to a record 2.12mb/d, again exceeding its OPEC+ quota. Crude oil alone rose 15.5% to 1.83 mb/d. Despite its commitment to cut output and compensate for overproduction, Kazakhstan continues to boost production at its largest oilfield, Tengiz. In other news, China certified 1.3 billion barrels of new shale oil reserves, but extraction is difficult due to deep, complex geology. Nonetheless, Sinopec urges government support to boost domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign energy. The May/June’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $ 0.47/bbl and $ 2.28/bbl respectively.

The May’25 Brent crude came off to lows of $72.38/bbl on Friday afternoon before climbing to the $72.90/bbl region, seeing resistance at $73/bbl.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract saw further strength this afternoon, increasing from $73.20/bbl at 12:10 GMT up to $73.90/bbl at 17:35 GMT. Bullish sentiment in crude oil has persisted after President Trump said on Wednesday that he would revoke Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela. This could lead to the negotiation of a fresh agreement between the Chevron and state company PDVSA to export crude to destinations other than the US, anonymous sources told Reuters. In the news today, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev said Russian oil companies will soon be able to restart oil projects in Kurdistan in the “near future”, as disputes between the Kurdistan Regional Government and Iraq over oil exports have been resolved. In other news, Israel announced it was sending negotiators to Cairo to extend the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire due to expire in two days, allegedly aimed at securing more hostages while delaying any final deal on Gaza’s future, as per Reuters. In macroeconomic news, US initial jobless claims increased by 22k to 242k in the week ending 22 Feb, the highest level since October. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 221k applications. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.53/bbl and $2.84/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has seen weakness since this morning, trading down from $73.30/bbl around 09:30 GMT to $72.50/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing). EIA data released today for the week ending 21 Feb showed a 2.3mb draw in US crude oil inventories, compared to an expected build of around 2.5mb. In the news today, Iran has accelerated its production of near weapons-grade uranium. A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that as of 8 Feb Iran has 274.8 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60%, an increase of 92.5 kilograms since the IAEA’s November report. In other news, several Canadian politicians have called for new pipelines to coastal export terminals to reduce dependency on the US market, according to Reuters. Currently, Canada sends around 90% of its oil exports to US refiners. Finally, Kazakhstan’s energy minister, Almasadam Satkaliyev, said oil exports are on schedule via its main oil export route, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, despite damage to a pumping station last week. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.48/bbl and $2.47/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract sold-off this afternoon from around $74.40/bbl at 14:30 GMT down to $72.85/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment following poor economic news from the US and Germany, driven partly by concerns about President Trump’s push for trade tariffs. In the news today, Iranian oil sellers risk significant hurdles to moving their cargoes out the country with competition for unsanctioned tankers from Russia and Venezuela intensifying, according to Kpler. While there were around 150 tankers engaged in Iranian crude oil transport in 2024, more than 100 of these vessels are now sanctioned by the US, as per Bloomberg. In other news, the Kremlin has reiterated that European peacekeepers being deployed in Ukraine would be unacceptable to Russia, according to Reuters. This followed Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s comment last week, stating that NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine would be a “direct threat” to Russia’s sovereignty. Finally, Brazilian regulators are cracking down on some offshore drilling by oil giants like Petrobras and Equinor, Bloomberg reported. Two Petrobras rigs were temporarily suspended as of 20 Feb, while operations were halted at the Valaris drillship at Equinor’s Bacalhau field on Feb 17 under safety regulations. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.48/bbl and $2.41/bbl, respectively.

Apr’25 Brent futures saw marginal strength this afternoon, trading from $74.55/bbl at 1200 GMT to $74.70/bbl at 1735 GMT. Crude oil prices have seen bullish sentiment after the US imposed a fresh round of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry, hitting more than 30 brokers, tanker operators, and shipping companies, as per Reuters. The UK has also announced its largest package of sanctions against Russia today since the early days of the war in Ukraine, including sanctions on a further 40 shadow fleet vessels. In other news, Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery, owned by Rosneft, halted operations after a Ukrainian drone strike, three industry sources told Reuters. The main crude distillation unit caught fire in the attack and has suspended oil processing, accounting for some 170kb/d or 48% of Ryazan’s refining capacity. Finally, the Iraqi Oil Ministry said in a press release that it “affirms its full commitment to the OPEC+ agreement” to cap oil output at 4mb/d, with the restart of Kurdistan oil exports appearing imminent. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.47/bbl and $2.50/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price dropped to around $76.15/bbl at 1400 GMT to $74.90/bbl at 1715 GMT (time of writing) as it broke back below the 50-day moving average today. JODI data reported that China’s total product demand fell by 17 kb/d this month, while total product imports increased by 96 kb/d. Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported that oil production has declined to 1.405 mb/d. The US is pressuring Iraq to resume Kurdish oil exports, warning of sanctions over ties to Iran. Baghdad plans to restart exports next week, but payment and logistics disputes remain. According to Fox News Radio, President Trump stated that it is “not important” for Zelenskyy to attend peace meetings. The front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $2.35/bbl, respectively, at the time of writing.

The Apr’25 Brent Futures contract was rangebound this afternoon, trading between $76.25/bbl and $76.60/bbl until around 16:00 GMT, after which it rallied to $77.02/bbl, where it sits at the time of writing (17:20 GMT). EIA statistics highlighted a 4.63mb build in crude stocks while distillates and gasoline drew 2.05mb and 0.15mb, respectively. In headlines, Texas based refiner HF Sinclair Corporation reported a Q4 2024 adjusted net loss of $191 million, missing analyst expectations due to declining refining margins driven by high global fuel supply and lower sales volumes. While other major refiners like Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 also faced profitability challenges, they exceeded analyst forecasts. Germany’s antitrust authority called for stronger regulation of oil price quotations, citing vulnerabilities to manipulation due to limited data and market participant dominance in price reporting. Meanwhile, Japanese oil firm Japex is refocusing on oil and gas after poor returns in renewables, citing rising costs in offshore wind projects. The company aims to acquire a US shale operator by 2026 and increase oil and gas investments through 2030, following a trend set by major energy firms like Shell, Equinor, and BP, which have also scaled back renewable energy commitments. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.47/bbl and $2.74/bbl respectively.

After the Apr’25 Brent futures rose from $76.30/bbl at 1300 GMT this afternoon to a weekly high of almost $76.80/bbl at 1440 GMT, before falling down to $76.25/bbl at 1735 GMT Overall, crude oil prices have been supported on fears of supply disruption, following the drone attack on the CPC pipeline oil flows and ongoing cold weather in the US. In the news today, oil flows from Iran to China rebounded in February after traders smoothed logistical bottlenecks caused by tighter US sanctions, seeing an increase in ship-to-ship transfers and use of alternative terminals, Bloomberg reports. In February, Iranian oil flows to China hit 1.7mb/d, a level last seen in Sep 2024 and up from 932kb/d in January, as per Kpler. In other news, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine would not be excluded from negotiations to end the war, but success would depend on raising the level of trust between Moscow and Washington, according to Reuters. Finally, India is scouting for overseas oil storage and is in talks with Oman to hold about 5mb of crude oil, L.R. Jain, the chief executive of Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves (ISPRL) stated. Jain told Reuters that this would be the first time that India will be holding storage overseas if a deal with Oman is reached. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $2.66/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price saw a choppy afternoon, swinging by a dollar from $76 to $75/bbl before rising to $75.70/bbl by 17:00 GMT. According to a Bloomberg report, privately-run terminals in China, particularly in Shandong, Yangshan, and Huizhou, have become key hubs for receiving sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude, allowing independent refiners to circumvent U.S. restrictions while shielding major state-owned operators from scrutiny. Diamondback Energy is expanding its Permian Basin footprint with a $4.1 billion acquisition of Double Eagle IV, paid through $3 billion in cash and stock, adding 27kb/d of production while prioritising efficiency and free cash flow amid a wave of industry consolidation. The G-7 is considering tightening the Russian oil price cap to curb Moscow’s war revenues and push for a negotiated peace in Ukraine, though details remain unclear and the plan faces diplomatic hurdles amid shifting U.S. foreign policy under Trump. Turkey’s largest oil refiner, Tupras, has halted Russian crude purchases due to U.S. sanctions, with final shipments arriving in February, marking a significant shift after Russian oil made up 65% of Turkey’s imports in 2024. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $2.56/bbl respectively.

After softening this morning, the Apr’25 Brent futures contract saw steady strength this afternoon, rising from $74.45/bbl at 1215 GMT up to $75.10/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have ultimately remained rangebound today as markets await further developments toward potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks. In the news today, while OPEC+ is considering pushing back a series of monthly supply increases due to begin in April, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ producers are not looking to delay the April production hikes, Russia’s RIA news agency reported. In other news, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) reported a drone attack on its largest crude oil pump station in Russia, known as PS Kropotinskaya. The CPC operates a pipeline from northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port on Russia’s Black Sea coast, which carries around 80% of Kazakh crude exports. Currently, PS Kropotkinskaya is out of service and the CPC pipeline is operating at reduced flow rates. Finally, Iraq’s Minister of Oil, Hayan Abdulghani, said in a statement that no obstacles remain to the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan, with expectations for exports to take place by early March, according to Kurdistan24. After almost two years since the start of the dispute between Iraq and Kurdistan, Iraq’s Minister of Oil claims that Baghdad could now receive 300kb/d from the region. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.29/bbl and $2.28/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract increased from $75.45/bbl at 1200 GMT this afternoon up to $75.80/bbl at 1330 GMT, where prices sold-off to $74.85/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US aims to squeeze Iran’s oil exports to less than 10% of current levels, Bloomberg reported. “We are committed to bringing the Iranians to going back to the 100kb/d of oil exports” shipped during the first Trump administration, Bessent said in a Fox Business interview. In other news, ADNOC Drilling plans to borrow $1 billion from banks in 2025 to refinance expiring debt, the company’s CFO Youssef Salem told Bloomberg Television. Salem said “We expect to be refinancing and up-sizing to fund our growth”, stating the company has roughly $750 million in debt maturing in the fourth quarter. Finally, China has begun drilling ultra-deep oil and gas wells in the Taklimakan Desert, located in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. One well, the Manshen 72-H6 in Xayar County is planned to reach a depth of 8,735 metres. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.31/bbl and $2.33/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has made a recovery after weakness this morning, trading from around $74.10/bbl at 1300 GMT up to $75.00/bbl at 1730 GMT. In the news today, President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not accept any bilateral agreement reached by Russia and the US without Kyiv’s involvement. The Kremlin responded that Ukraine would “of course” be involved in peace talks but that there would be a separate US-Russian channel for negotiations, as per Reuters. In other news, Hamas stated it is willing to proceed with the Gaza ceasefire deal, agreeing to release the next three Israeli hostages this weekend in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. This came as the 42-day Gaza ceasefire appeared close to failure this week with Israel and Hamas accusing the other of violating the peace deal. Finally, Syria is struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders as shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels to the country in case they are detained, according to an Argus report. In January, Syria’s transitional government issued tenders seeking 4.2mb of crude oil, 80kt of 90 RON gasoline, and 100kt of fuel oil and gasoil, all of which closed earlier this month. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.36/bbl and $2.48/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, declining from $76.35/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $75.35/bbl at 1720 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment this afternoon, with EIA stats released today at 1530 GMT for the week to 07 Feb showing a larger-than-expected 4.07mb build in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, OPEC has released its February oil market report, forecasting global oil demand in 2025 to grow by 1.4mb/d y/y, largely unchanged from January’s assessment. OPEC projects OECD oil demand to grow by 0.1mb/d y/y and by 1.3mb/d In the non-OECD region, mostly driven by Chinese demand. Total world oil demand is anticipated to average 106.6mb/d in 2026. In other news, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the country complied with its OPEC+ output quota in January and February so far, quoted by Russian news agency Interfax. Meanwhile, Indian refiners are reconfiguring insurers and vessel owners to continue receiving cheaper Russian oil without violating US sanctions on Russian oil exports, anonymous industry executives told Bloomberg. Finally, CNPC and Kazakhstan’s KazTransGas have signed an agreement increasing the contracted gas volume for the 2024-25 supply year by one-third, according to Xinhua news agency. CNPC also finalized a crude oil spot purchase agreement with Tengizchevroil, though specific contract volume figures were not disclosed, as per S&P Global. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $2.47/bbl, respectively.

Apr’25 Brent futures failed to maintain strength above $77.00/bbl this afternoon and softened to $76.46/bbl at 15:22 GMT before recovering to around $76.94/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Russian oil production fell below its OPEC+ quota in January, alleviating fears of oversupply. Output dropped to 8.962 mb/d, coming in at 16 kb/d under the approved level set by the production agreement. Petro-Victory Energy, in a 50/50 partnership with Azevedo & Travassos Petroleo, acquired 13 oil fields spanning 38,301 acres in Brazil’s Potiguar Basin. The deal adds 125mb of oil in place, boosting production capacity and proven reserves by 50%. The US Dollar stays flat for a second day, with the DXY holding above 108.00. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled no rush to adjust rates, while the Greenback remains fairly unfazed by Trump’s 15% steel and aluminium tariff, set for March 12. Chinese retaliatory tariffs targeting US coal and LNG came into play today. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $2.86/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract ultimately saw marginal strength this afternoon, increasing from $75.60/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $76.05/bbl at 1715 GMT, before tapering to $75.85/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Bullish sentiment has pushed crude oil prices higher to start the week despite US tariff concerns, with traders seeing good buying opportunity after last week’s decline. In the news today, India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said the country plans to launch new oil and gas licensing rounds as early as this week, with a meeting between US President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi scheduled later this week. In other news, Russia’s crude output fell to 8.962mb/d in January, 16kb/d below its target under the OPEC+ supply agreement, according to Energy Ministry figures seen by Bloomberg. Russia has pledged to submit an updated schedule for oil production cuts to compensate for past overproduction, though none has been published. Finally, Moldova’s pro-Russian breakaway Transdniestria region is expected to begin receiving natural gas supplies under a loan provided by Moscow, as per Reuters. This followed widespread power cuts after Russian natural gas shipments to the region were halted on 1 Jan. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.46/bbl and $2.75/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price was lower on Friday afternoon after testing the $75/bbl resistance level, coming off to $74.35/bbl by 17:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude is on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, with players taking profit and selling into any rallies amid heightened volatility on the back of Trump’s actions. In the news, Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, has resumed regular light crude imports due to declining domestic production, as stalled trade with Iran and a gas supply shortage have worsened blending bottlenecks, despite increased exports and slight overall output growth. The European Union is discussing a deal to partially lift sanctions on Syria’s oil industry and banks, including removing bans on crude imports and energy financing, as part of efforts to support Syria’s transition under new President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, while some EU nations push for conditions limiting Russian influence in the country. Singapore-listed oil company Interra Resources is seeking legal advice to assess whether its subsidiaries violated foreign laws by supplying oil to military-controlled Myanmar, following allegations from activist group Justice for Myanmar, while also reviewing the adequacy of its risk controls amid Western sanctions on the nation. Chevron is accelerating the expansion of Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield, reaching 900kb/d in early February – well ahead of schedule – with full capacity of 1mb/d expected by June, complicating Kazakhstan’s efforts to stay within its OPEC+ production quota. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $2.46/bbl respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price came off below the $75/bbl level on Thursday afternoon, trading at $74.42/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). As the US unveiled fresh sanctions on Iran, the first move under the Trump administration, prices spiked from $74.35/bbl to highs of $75.38/bbl before quickly retreating to $74.62/bbl. In other news, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signaled that he will not block the Rosebank oil and gas project, despite a court ruling against it, reaffirming his stance that existing licences will not be revoked while maintaining that oil and gas will remain part of the UK’s energy mix for decades. Following fresh US sanctions imposed on 10 January, Russia’s flagship Urals crude oil has dropped below the $60/bbl price cap for the first time since December. A new poll shows 82% of Canadians support imposing export taxes on oil if Donald Trump implements tariffs on Canadian goods, despite opposition from Alberta and Saskatchewan leaders, highlighting growing public backing for using Canada’s oil exports as leverage in potential trade conflicts with the U.S. Oil and gas traders are likely to seek waivers from Beijing over China’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., where 4 tankers, carrying 6mb of WTI and ANS crude, and 2 LNG vessels are currently en route to China. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.47/bbl and $2.65/bbl respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract found support at just shy of $76.00/bbl at around 0300 GMT and strengthened through the morning to $76.55/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). President Trump issued executive orders on 1 Feb, which will take effect on 4 Feb, including a 25% on most goods from Mexico and Canada, a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Goldman Sachs sees minimal price impact, keeping its forecast unchanged after raising it last week, with its Brent forecast for 2025 raised to $78/bbl from $76/bbl. Iraq approved a budget amendment to restart Kurdish oil exports via Turkey, doubling payments to the Kurdish region to $16/bbl. PM Al-Sudani urged swift action after a year-long export halt over disputes. Nigeria aims to boost oil and condensate output to 2.7 mb/d by 2027 from 1.67 mb/d in December. This would allow Nigeria to remain within its OPEC+ crude quota as it will likely be a strong addition to condensate production. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.87/bbl and $3.75/bbl, respectively.

The prompt April Brent Futures contract has seen a volatile afternoon, initially trading down from $75.09/bbl at noon to a low of $74.17 at 14:20 GMT before rallying to $76.65/bbl at 15:35 GMT and retracing some of its gains to print at $76.25/bbl at the time of writing (17:20 GMT). In headlines, Trump is expected to sign an executive order intensifying pressure on Iran, within which Iranian crude exports will be targeted. A presidential memorandum will direct the US Treasury to impose “maximum economic pressure” through sanctions and enforcement on violators, aiming to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero. Iranian oil revenue totalled $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion in 2022 according to US EIA data, with 2024 output at its highest since 2018, per OPEC. In other news, Equinor suspended production at the 755 kb/d Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea due to a power outage. Repair work is underway, and a restart plan is being developed, according to a company spokesperson. At the time of writing, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent Futures spreads are at $0.66/bbl and $3.30/bbl respectively.