Crude

This afternoon, the May’25 Brent futures contract initially strengthened up from $70.30/bbl at 1230 GMT up to $71.40/bbl at 1530 GMT. However, these gains reversed, falling to $70.25/bbl at 1740 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices found support after President Trump threatened sanctions on Russian banks if the country fails to work toward a ceasefire with Ukraine. In the news today, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ could reverse the decision to start increasing oil output from April if there are market imbalances. Meanwhile, officials from Kazakhstan speaking at an online briefing pledged to cut output in March, April, and May, according to Reuters. Nigeria’s oil production in February was 70kb/d above its OPEC+ quota of 1.5mb/d, amid higher exports and increased demand from the Dangote refinery. In other news, Shell has started first oil production from the next development phase of a deepwater oil project offshore Malaysia. Phase 4 of the Gumusut-Kakap project is expected to produce approximately 21k/d of oil equivalent. This forms part of Shell’s plan to develop new upstream projects between 2023-2025, projected to deliver and additional 500kb/d of oil equivalent at peak production. Finally, Russia attacked energy and gas infrastructure in Ukraine early on Friday, national gas firm Naftogaz said. Acting Naftogaz chairman Roman Chumak said Naftogaz gas production infrastructure has now come under attack for the seventeenth time. At the time of writing, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.31/bbl respectively.

The May’25 Brent futures contract declined from $69.85/bbl at 1230 GMT down to $68.75/bbl at 1640 GMT, however, has found support up to $69.45/bbl at 1810 GMT (time of writing). This afternoon saw a spike in crude oil prices at around 1720 GMT, after US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated the US will not hesitate to go “all in” on Russian energy sanctions and “shutdown” Iran’s oil sector, as per Bloomberg. In the news today, as of late February, independent refineries in China’s Shandong province have begun restarting their crude distillation units following a decline in fuel oil prices. The refineries have a combined capacity of 178kb/d, according to S&P Global. In other news, the US exported around 357kb/d of crude to India in February, according to vessel tracking data from Kpler. US crude exports to India hit an over 2-year high last month and are up significantly from exports of 221kb/d in February 2024. Finally, a US-sanctioned Russian oil-tanker has transported about 35,000 tons of diesel from Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk to Syria, as per Bloomberg. It is unclear whether the shipment is for Russian bases or the Syrian government. At the time of writing, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $2.23/bbl respectively.

The May’25 Brent futures contract has weakened this afternoon, trading from $70.20/bbl at 1200 GMT down to almost $68.35/bbl around 164 0 GMT, recovering to $69.10/bbl at 1740 GMT (time of writing). M1 Brent futures has now fallen to the lowest level seen since December 2021. Crude oil prices have declined following a larger-than-expected EIA build of 3.61mb in US crude oil inventories for the week to 28 Feb, alongside bearish sentiment surrounding the April OPEC+ output hike and Trump tariffs. In the news today, the US has now paused intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, CIA director John Ratcliffe said. This followed a halt to US military aid to Kyiv earlier this week, adding pressure on Ukraine to cooperate in peace talks. In other news, Russia saw its oil and gas revenues drop by 18.4% in February y/y, according to data from the Russian Finance Ministry cited by TASS. Finally, Egypt is inviting international companies to bid for 13 offshore and onshore blocks in a new licensing round to boost domestic oil and gas production. This includes three offshore blocks in the Gulf of Suez and three onshore exploration areas in Egypt’s Western Desert. At the time of writing, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.42/bbl and $1.97/bbl respectively.

The front-month Brent futures initially ticked up this afternoon, rising to $70.75/bbl at 14:10 GMT but dropped to a six-month low of $69.80/bbl at 15:05 GMT. The futures contract met support at this critical level and climbed to $70.80/bbl at the time of writing (17:45 GMT).

The prompt May 25 Brent Futures contract saw continued support from this morning’s window, slowly rising to $73.36/bbl at 14:35 GMT before rapidly falling to $72.32/bbl at 15:40 GMT only to further fall to $71.22/bbl at 18:20 (time of writing). The sudden drop in price comes as OPEC+ announces an increase of 138,000 b/d. Kazakhstan increased crude oil and gas condensate production by 13% in February to a record 2.12mb/d, again exceeding its OPEC+ quota. Crude oil alone rose 15.5% to 1.83 mb/d. Despite its commitment to cut output and compensate for overproduction, Kazakhstan continues to boost production at its largest oilfield, Tengiz. In other news, China certified 1.3 billion barrels of new shale oil reserves, but extraction is difficult due to deep, complex geology. Nonetheless, Sinopec urges government support to boost domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign energy. The May/June’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $ 0.47/bbl and $ 2.28/bbl respectively.

The May’25 Brent crude came off to lows of $72.38/bbl on Friday afternoon before climbing to the $72.90/bbl region, seeing resistance at $73/bbl.