Crude

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rangebound between $64.60/bbl and $65.02/bbl in the early afternoon. Prices then rallied to $65.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the first round of talks between Russia and Ukraine conclude. President Zelenskiy dismissed Russia’s terms and coordinated with US President Trump and European leaders for a stronger response. Russia said talks could continue, but President Putin declined a direct meeting with Zelenskiy. In other news, Nigerian oil firm Renaissance Energy has halted production into the Trans Niger Pipeline following an operational incident on May 6 that caused an oil spill in the B-Dere community in Ogoniland. The pipeline has a capacity of around 450kb/d and has now seen two incidents in as many months. China has become the top buyer of Canadian oil shipped through the newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline. Since full operations began in June 2024, Canada has exported an average of 207kb/d to China via the pipeline, up from just 7kb/d in the previous decade. In contrast, US imports from the pipeline averaged 173kb/d. The US is intensifying efforts to block Iran’s oil exports to China by cracking down on financial and logistical loopholes. According to Bloomberg, US Treasury officials visited Hong Kong in April to warn local banks against facilitating transactions linked to Iranian oil sales, especially those involving front companies and non-dollar currencies. Finally, the front month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.61/bbl and the 6-month spread Jul/Jan’26 is at $1.57/bbl.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract climbed from $65.80/bbl at circa 12:20 BST to $66.50/bbl at 14:55 BST, where it met resistance. Price action attempted to breach this level thrice this afternoon but failed to breach past it, softening to $65.90/bbl at 16:35 BST. Finally, at the time of writing (17:45 BST), the futures contract stands at $66.28/bbl. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.45mb w/w in the week ending 9 May to 441.8mb (15.19mb lower y/y). The EIA also reported a muted 0.19mb build in US gasoline inventories to 225.7mb (-2.27mb y/y) and a 3.16mb decline in distillate fuel oil inventories to 103.6mb (-12.81mb y/y). In other news, a senior executive at Equinor reportedly told Reuters that Europe may need to keep offering attractive price levels to secure an additional 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG to restock its inventories. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco has signed 34 preliminary agreements worth as much as $90 billion with major US companies in Saudi Arabia’s attempt to diversify its economy and attract foreign investment. The NOC commented that the agreements comprise LNG, fuels, chemicals, emission-reduction technologies and artifical intelligence. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jul/Aug’25 and Jul/Jan’26 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract climbed from $65.80/bbl at circa 12:20 BST to $66.50/bbl at 14:55 BST, where it met resistance. Price action attempted to breach this level thrice this afternoon but failed to breach past it, softening to $65.90/bbl at 16:35 BST. Finally, at the time of writing (17:45 BST), the futures contract stands at $66.28/bbl. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.45mb w/w in the week ending 9 May to 441.8mb (15.19mb lower y/y). The EIA also reported a muted 0.19mb build in US gasoline inventories to 225.7mb (-2.27mb y/y) and a 3.16mb decline in distillate fuel oil inventories to 103.6mb (-12.81mb y/y). In other news, a senior executive at Equinor reportedly told Reuters that Europe may need to keep offering attractive price levels to secure an additional 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG to restock its inventories. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco has signed 34 preliminary agreements worth as much as $90 billion with major US companies in Saudi Arabia’s attempt to diversify its economy and attract foreign investment. The NOC commented that the agreements comprise LNG, fuels, chemicals, emission-reduction technologies and artifical intelligence. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jul/Aug’25 and Jul/Jan’26 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $66.77/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, Libya’s fragile peace has collapsed after the reported assassination of Abdel Ghani al-Kikli, head of the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA). His death, triggered fierce clashes in Tripoli. The renewed violence underscores the risk the oil industry faces in Libya. Despite ambitious oil production targets, Libya’s infrastructure remains vulnerable to militia control and political fragmentation. In other news, the US and Saudi Arabia signed a major economic partnership including a $142B arms deal and several energy deals during President Trump’s visit to Riyadh. Aramco announced a $3.4B expansion of its Motiva refinery in Texas and agreements with US firms NextDecade and Sempra. Nigeria’s Dangote oil refinery has cancelled its planned June maintenance on the 204kb/d gasoline-making unit, as it completed the work during an unplanned outage from April 7 to May 11, according to industry monitor IIR. During the shutdown, the refinery boosted exports of residual products like straight run fuel oil, while exports of refined fuels such as jet fuel and gasoil declined, shipping data from Kpler showed. More from Nigeria, where oil firm Oando has repaired its pipeline in Bayelsa state after four recent sabotage-related oil spills. The company responded by shutting down wells, halting crude delivery, and containing the spills. Joint investigations were carried out with regulators and local communities. Finally the front-month Jul-Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.52/bbl and $1.55 respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices initially continue rallying up to $66.37/bbl at 12:56 BST but have been falling ever since, down to $65.11 at 17:25 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US House Energy and Commerce Committee has proposed over $1.5B to refill and maintain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and to cancel a planned sale of 7mb. The plan includes $1.32B for oil purchases and $218 million for maintenance. The move supports former President Trump’s goal of refilling the SPR and cuts funding from Biden’s climate law. Equinor has temporarily halted production at Norway’s Johan Castberg oilfield in the Barents Sea due to a minor oil leak in a heat exchanger. The leak occurred over the weekend but caused no spill into the sea. Iraq plans to cut its crude oil exports to 3.2 mb/d in May and June, down from about 3.42 mb/d in March and 3.3 mb/d in April, as part of its OPEC+ compensation cuts. These reductions aim to offset Iraq’s previous overproduction and help balance the oil market amid broader OPEC+ output adjustments. In other news, CPC Blend oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) will fall to 1.5 mb/d in May, down from 1.6 mb/d in April. The pipeline, key for Kazakhstan’s oil exports, connects the Tengiz field and others to the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry reaffirmed its commitment to OPEC+ production limits. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.45/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.24/bbl.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices fall from $64.14/bbl at 13:32 BST down to $63.19/bbl at 15:14 BST. Prices have since slowly rallied to $63.70/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, Iran has agreed to resume indirect nuclear talks with the United States on Sunday, May 12 in Oman, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency. In other news, the UK will sanction up to 100 more tankers used to ship Russian oil. Despite earlier sanctions on 41 vessels, 39 still operate. Russia has evaded restrictions using non-G7-insured ships. BP shares rose 1.9% on Friday after the Financial Times reported that several major energy firms have evaluated the potential for a takeover. Vitol is reportedly interested in parts of the business. BP shares remain down about 28% over the past year. Mexico’s state oil company Pemex is planning to reopen thousands of idled mature wells in an urgent attempt to reverse years of production decline, with 2024 output averaging just 1.58 mb/d well below the government’s 1.8 mb/d target. Pemex reported a Q1 production drop of 11.3% and a $2.12B net loss. Indonesia plans to reduce fuel imports from Singapore and buy more refined products from the US to negotiate lower tariffs. The country aims to source up to 60% of its fuel from the US. Indonesia also offered to buy an additional $10B of U.S. energy products as part of efforts to balance its trade surplus. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.46/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.15/bbl.