Crude

May’25 Brent futures initially dipped from $72.60/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $72.15/bbl shortly after 1300 GMT. Flat price then strengthened to this afternoon’s high of $73.15/bbl at 1610 GMT, moderating to $72.85/bbl by 1745 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, President Trump has threatened to hit countries that buy Venezuelan oil and gas with a 25% tariff, expected to come into effect on April 2. The move aims to cut a major source of revenue for Nicolas Maduro’s regime in Caracas while putting further pressure on China, a major purchaser of Venezuelan crude, as per Bloomberg. Furthermore, the Trump administration has extended Chevron’s deadline to halt its operations in Venezuela to May 27. In other news, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said that so far “there have been no other orders from the president” to strike energy infrastructure in Ukraine, according to Russian news agency TASS. This came as the Russian Defence Ministry stated today that Ukraine conducted two drone attacks on the Valulka gas distribution station on 22 Mar, not specifiying whether the station remains operational. Finally, the fire at the drone-hit Kavkazskaya depot in the Krasnodar region of Russia has now raged for a fifth day, the regional administration said. According to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, last year suppliers delivered at least 130,000 tons of oil per month via Kavkazskaya, a key facility that delivers Russian crude to the Caspian pipeline. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.60/bbl and $3.05/bbl.

The May’25 Brent futures contract strengthened from this afternoon’s low of $72.60/bbl at 1340 GMT up to a touch under $73.20/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Fresh US sanctions on Iran continue to stoke bullish sentiment in crude oil prices. In the news today, the US Department of Interior has announced its plan this week to reopen 82% of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska for leasing and energy project development. Last year, the Biden administration had banned drilling on around 28 million acres of Alaskan federal land, estimated to hold approximately 895mb of recoverable oil. In other news, Kazakhstan’s oil output has reached another record high this month on the back of oilfield expansion, according to Reuters. Oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan reached about 2.16mb/d during the period 1-16 Mar, compared with 2.12mb/d average output in February. Meanwhile, India’s dependence on crude oil imports is expected to hit a record high in the fiscal year ending 31 Mar, 2025. According to oil ministry data reported by The Indian Express, India imported 88.2% of the crude it consumed in the April 2024-February 2025 period, up from 87.7% in the same period from 2023 to 2024. Finally, Germany has seized an oil tanker belonging to the Russian shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea in January, the German magazine Spiegel reported. The tanker was travelling under the flag of Panama and was carrying about 100,000 tons of crude oil. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.55/bbl and $2.86/bbl.

The front-month Brent futures contract dropped to $70.55/bbl at 13:35 GMT this afternoon but found support here and climbed to $72.10/bbl at 15:40 GMT. At the time of writing, 17:20 GMT, the M1 futures contract stands just shy of $72/bbl. Brent’s recovery this afternoon was fuelled by the US issuing a fourth round of sanctions on Iranian oil sales since President Donald Trump took office

May’25 Brent futures has been supported this afternoon, rising from $70.55/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $71.20/bbl just before 1700 GMT, tapering to $71.00/bl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). EIA stats released this afternoon recorded a 1.75mb build in US crude oil inventories in the week to 14 Mar, higher than the expected build of 1.1mb. In the news today, the Kremlin stated that Russia has suspended its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, following yesterday’s phone call between Putin and Trump where Russia declined to endorse a full 30-day ceasefire. President Zelenskiy claims Putin’s words were insufficient and that Ukraine would provide a list of energy facilities it hopes the US and allies would help monitor, as per Reuters. In other news, Serbian oil company NIS, majority-owned by Gazprom Neft and Gazprom, has submitted a second request to the US for a waiver of sanctions. The sanctions could result in crude supply cuts for NIS, which operates a single oil refinery in Serbia with an annual capacity of 4.8 million tons. Finally, Vitol is set to buy stakes in upstream assets in West Africa from Eni for $1.65 billion, the Italian major said today. This would include a 30% stake in Eni’s Baleine project in Cote d’Ivoire, where current production exceeds 60kb/d of oil equivalent. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $2.33/bbl.

The front-month Brent futures contract witnessed a weaker afternoon, with prices softening from over $72/bbl at 12:25 GMT to $70.35/bbl at 17:00 GMT. Subsequently, the contract saw a wave of support and rallied to around $71/bbl at 17:20 GMT but met resistance here and stands at $70.65/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing).

May’25 Brent futures has seen weakness this afternoon, trading from just under $71.60/bbl at 1150 GMT down to $70.70/bbl at 1500 GMT, before recovering to $71.20/bbl at 1755 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, a Saudi official has denied reports that Riyadh is providing oil supplies for ongoing US military operations in Yemen, according to Saudi news network Al-Arabiya. Meanwhile, the US director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, stated that the US will look to other countries affected by Houthi vessel attacks to “similarly take action”, said in an interview with Indian broadcaster NDTV. In other news, President Trump’s talk with President Putin due to take place tomorrow will likely focus on territorial concessions by Kyiv and control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plan. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Putin would speak with Trump by phone but declined to comment on Trump’s remarks on land and power plants, as per Reuters. Finally, Norwegian police said on Monday they are investigating a break-in at an electricity transformer station near Oslo where an oil spill was discovered on Sunday. National power grid operator Statnett said some 50 to 60 tonnes of oil had leaked from a transformer, believed to be an act of sabotage. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.52/bbl.