Crude

The May’25 Brent futures contract weakened from around $74.15/bbl at 1215 GMT down to an afternoon low of $73.25/bbl at 1625 GMT, retracing slightly to $73.50/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw a weekly gain but softened today, potentially as traders weigh up the impact of Trump’s tariffs scheduled for April 2. In the news today, the price of Russia’s ESPO crude blend has slumped to the lowest level since June 2024 as demand from Chinese state-owned firms has weakened, trading sources told Reuters. Cargoes of ESPO for April loadings are being traded at a discount of around $1.50/bbl against ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China. In other news, Russia’s tanker group Sovcomflot saw transportation volumes drop 16% y/y in 2024 to 63 million metric tons, Russian news agency Interfax reported. Primarily the result of US and European sanctions, Sovcomflot’s net profit dropped by 55% to $424 million in 2024. Finally, Ukrainian officials said the terms of the proposed mineral deal between Ukraine and the US have not yet been finalised, after Washington’s latest offer suggested it was demanding all of Ukraine’s natural resources income for years, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.86/bbl and $3.62/bbl.

May’25 Brent futures initially saw weakness this afternoon, declining from $73.80/bbl around 1300 GMT down to $73.23/bbl shortly after 1340 GMT, however, recovered to $73.90/bbl by 1735 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, President Zelenskiy said Russian artillery had damaged Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the city of Kherson, just two days after the truce on energy strikes was announced. The Ukrainian leader stated after a summit in Paris, “we are waiting for America’s reaction, since they told us that they will respond to violations”, according to Reuters. In other news, CNOOC reported an 11.4% rise in net profit for 2024 up to $19 billion. The increase in profit came as CNOOC’s net oil and gas production was up 7.2% y/y to 726.8mb of oil equivalent. Finally, Uganda’s $5 billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) has secured the first tranche of funding for the project for about $1 billion, with two additional funding tranches expected. The EACOP is a 1,443km-long pipeline to be built from Uganda to the Tanga port in Tanzania, projected to transport at least 216kb/d. Shareholders in EACOP include TotalEnergies with a 62% stake and CNOOC with an 8% stake. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.70/bbl and $3.33/bbl.

The May’25 Brent futures contract traded sideways this afternoon, increasing from $73.60/bbl at 1230 GMT up to $74.15/bbl at 1550 GMT, before declining to $73.65/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have fluctuated as Russia and Ukraine have now accused one another of flouting the ceasefire on energy strikes reached on 25 Mar.

The May’25 Brent futures contract reversed this morning’s gains, falling from $73.55 around 1345 GMT down to $72.50/bbl at 1620 GMT, inching up to $72.85/bbl by 1755 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have seen a downward correction this afternoon amid news of a Russia-Ukraine truce at sea and potentially some small profit-taking on recent Brent strength.

May’25 Brent futures initially dipped from $72.60/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $72.15/bbl shortly after 1300 GMT. Flat price then strengthened to this afternoon’s high of $73.15/bbl at 1610 GMT, moderating to $72.85/bbl by 1745 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, President Trump has threatened to hit countries that buy Venezuelan oil and gas with a 25% tariff, expected to come into effect on April 2. The move aims to cut a major source of revenue for Nicolas Maduro’s regime in Caracas while putting further pressure on China, a major purchaser of Venezuelan crude, as per Bloomberg. Furthermore, the Trump administration has extended Chevron’s deadline to halt its operations in Venezuela to May 27. In other news, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said that so far “there have been no other orders from the president” to strike energy infrastructure in Ukraine, according to Russian news agency TASS. This came as the Russian Defence Ministry stated today that Ukraine conducted two drone attacks on the Valulka gas distribution station on 22 Mar, not specifiying whether the station remains operational. Finally, the fire at the drone-hit Kavkazskaya depot in the Krasnodar region of Russia has now raged for a fifth day, the regional administration said. According to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, last year suppliers delivered at least 130,000 tons of oil per month via Kavkazskaya, a key facility that delivers Russian crude to the Caspian pipeline. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.60/bbl and $3.05/bbl.