Crude

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $66.77/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, Libya’s fragile peace has collapsed after the reported assassination of Abdel Ghani al-Kikli, head of the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA). His death, triggered fierce clashes in Tripoli. The renewed violence underscores the risk the oil industry faces in Libya. Despite ambitious oil production targets, Libya’s infrastructure remains vulnerable to militia control and political fragmentation. In other news, the US and Saudi Arabia signed a major economic partnership including a $142B arms deal and several energy deals during President Trump’s visit to Riyadh. Aramco announced a $3.4B expansion of its Motiva refinery in Texas and agreements with US firms NextDecade and Sempra. Nigeria’s Dangote oil refinery has cancelled its planned June maintenance on the 204kb/d gasoline-making unit, as it completed the work during an unplanned outage from April 7 to May 11, according to industry monitor IIR. During the shutdown, the refinery boosted exports of residual products like straight run fuel oil, while exports of refined fuels such as jet fuel and gasoil declined, shipping data from Kpler showed. More from Nigeria, where oil firm Oando has repaired its pipeline in Bayelsa state after four recent sabotage-related oil spills. The company responded by shutting down wells, halting crude delivery, and containing the spills. Joint investigations were carried out with regulators and local communities. Finally the front-month Jul-Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.52/bbl and $1.55 respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices initially continue rallying up to $66.37/bbl at 12:56 BST but have been falling ever since, down to $65.11 at 17:25 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US House Energy and Commerce Committee has proposed over $1.5B to refill and maintain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and to cancel a planned sale of 7mb. The plan includes $1.32B for oil purchases and $218 million for maintenance. The move supports former President Trump’s goal of refilling the SPR and cuts funding from Biden’s climate law. Equinor has temporarily halted production at Norway’s Johan Castberg oilfield in the Barents Sea due to a minor oil leak in a heat exchanger. The leak occurred over the weekend but caused no spill into the sea. Iraq plans to cut its crude oil exports to 3.2 mb/d in May and June, down from about 3.42 mb/d in March and 3.3 mb/d in April, as part of its OPEC+ compensation cuts. These reductions aim to offset Iraq’s previous overproduction and help balance the oil market amid broader OPEC+ output adjustments. In other news, CPC Blend oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) will fall to 1.5 mb/d in May, down from 1.6 mb/d in April. The pipeline, key for Kazakhstan’s oil exports, connects the Tengiz field and others to the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry reaffirmed its commitment to OPEC+ production limits. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.45/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.24/bbl.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices fall from $64.14/bbl at 13:32 BST down to $63.19/bbl at 15:14 BST. Prices have since slowly rallied to $63.70/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, Iran has agreed to resume indirect nuclear talks with the United States on Sunday, May 12 in Oman, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency. In other news, the UK will sanction up to 100 more tankers used to ship Russian oil. Despite earlier sanctions on 41 vessels, 39 still operate. Russia has evaded restrictions using non-G7-insured ships. BP shares rose 1.9% on Friday after the Financial Times reported that several major energy firms have evaluated the potential for a takeover. Vitol is reportedly interested in parts of the business. BP shares remain down about 28% over the past year. Mexico’s state oil company Pemex is planning to reopen thousands of idled mature wells in an urgent attempt to reverse years of production decline, with 2024 output averaging just 1.58 mb/d well below the government’s 1.8 mb/d target. Pemex reported a Q1 production drop of 11.3% and a $2.12B net loss. Indonesia plans to reduce fuel imports from Singapore and buy more refined products from the US to negotiate lower tariffs. The country aims to source up to 60% of its fuel from the US. Indonesia also offered to buy an additional $10B of U.S. energy products as part of efforts to balance its trade surplus. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.46/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.15/bbl.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices continue rallying up to $62.90/bbl at 16:59 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US and UK have agreed on a deal to lower tariffs on some goods. Key points include: cars,

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices falling from $62.72/bbl at 12:56 BST down to $61.35/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, US crude oil inventories fell by 2mb in the week ending May 2, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), contrasting with the American Petroleum Institute’s report a day earlier of a 4.49mb build. Gasoline inventories rose by 200kb amid increased production, while distillate stocks declined by 1.1mb, with production also ticking up. Distillate inventories remain 13% below the five-year average. Overall, US petroleum demand rose, with total products supplied averaging 19.8mb/d over the past four weeks. In other news, Colombia’s state oil company Ecopetrol plans to reduce costs and expenses by approximately $232 million and indicated it may scale back its 2025 investment plan by around $500 million. Ecopetrol had reported a 22% drop in Q1 profits, citing global economic concerns and U.S. tariff threats. Despite the headwinds, its share price saw a slight uptick on Wednesday. Norway is set to expand its oil and gas production through a new licensing round in frontier areas. The government maintains that further exploration is necessary to sustain output amid declining reserves. Earlier this year, it awarded stakes in 53 new licenses despite environmental opposition. The industry plans to invest a record $24.7B in 2025, exceeding prior expectations due to both inflation and increased drilling activity. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.34/bbl and $0.52/bbl respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $62.78/bbl at 17:17 BST before slightly coming off to $62.20/bbl at 18:20 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Arabia is considering shifting towards a market share strategy in a bid to punish OPEC+ members defying quotas, but weakening global demand could blunt its strategy. OPEC+ has already agreed to unwind nearly 1mb/d of cuts by June. While Riyadh can afford short-term losses, a prolonged slump could destabilize OPEC+ and threaten Saudi Arabia’s grip on oil markets. In other news, US shale producers in the Permian Basin are cutting spending and reducing rig counts amid a sharp decline in crude prices below $60/bbl. Diamondback Energy and Coterra Energy announced over $500 million in combined budget cuts this week, joining peers like EOG Resources and Matador Resources in scaling back operations. Nabors Industries projects a 4% drop in US shale rigs by year-end. This retreat comes as US oil futures have fallen 17% year-to-date, driven by escalating tariffs under President Trump and OPEC+’s surprise decision to accelerate production increases. Argentina expects to post an $8B energy trade surplus in 2025, up from $5.7B last year, driven by strong performance in its Vaca Muerta shale formation and new government policies, Deputy Energy Secretary Federico Valler said in Houston. Vista Energy echoed the bullish outlook, while YPF (Argentina’s state owned company) and partners like Shell and Chevron are ramping up infrastructure projects. Finally, the Jul/Aug front month spread is at $ 0.40/bbl and the Jul/Jan’26 6-month spread is at $ 0.62/bbl