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Fundamentals Continue to Hit Down Brent Prices

The Brent prompt contract has continued to retrace lower and was trading at a low of $72.37/bbl at 8:50 GMT. At 10:00 GMT (time of writing), it is trading at $73.04/bbl.

The API announced an oil draw of 2.3mbbls. Across oil products, there were mostly builds, with gasoline and Cushing stocks notably seeing 5.8mbbls and 1.4mbbls builds respectively. It will be important to monitor EIA data to see if there is a match in estimations, as stock announcements are expected at 15:30 GMT. A tepid start of the day for crude prices followed sluggish market expectations after the US inflation was announced with a CPI rising by 0.1% m-o-m, thus muting expectations of potential rate cuts.

The EIA published a report on Tuesday revising its 2024 oil forecast for Brent prices from $93/bbl last month to $83/bbl. Prices are said to reach $84/bbl in the first half of 2024, compared to $78/bbl in 2023.

Norway is set to invest more than expected in the oil and gas sector in 2024. Offshore Norway, an oil and gas membership organisation, predicted investments to reach 240bn Norwegian crowns ($21.85bn) against previous estimations of 194.3bn crowns ($17.69bn). The rise in investments is due to the increased scope of ongoing projects as well as a weak Norwegian crown.

The front and 6-month Brent futures spreads are at -$0.32/bbl and -$0.91/bbl respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.