The front-month Brent futures contract softened this afternoon, dipping from $70.70/bbl at 12:40 GMT to sub-$70/bbl at $69.80/bbl at the time of writing (17:40 GMT). Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia is in favour of Ukraine’s proposed ceasefire deal, but he has heavily caveated “serious issues” that need to be resolved before the proposal can be progressed. President Putin has stressed that the ceasefire needs to lead to “enduring peace” and needs to remove the root causes of the crisis. Ahead of these comments, President Putin also visited Kursk for the first time since Ukraine partly invaded the region and predicted a swift liberation of the region. In other news, the IEA has reported that global oil supply could exceed demand by circa 600kBrent/Dubai in 2025 due to US-led supply growth. The IEA predicts that global demand is expected to rise by just 1.03mBrent/Dubai in 2025, down 70kBrent/Dubai from their previous forecast, driven primarily by Asia. Additionally, BP plans to explore new oil fields in the Azeri Caspian Sea, as per comments made by BP’s upstream chief Gordon Birrell to Reuters. In macroeconomic news, US PPI data stood at +3.2% y/y in Feb’25, its slowest rate since Nov’24 (Jan’25: +3.7% y/y, consensus: +3.3% y/y). Despite this, markets remain rife with tensions regarding President Trump’s economic policy. Finally, at the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.49/bbl and $2.36/bbl, respectively.
