May’25 Brent futures saw an eventful week, with prices rising from around $68.80/bbl on 06 Mar up to a weekly high of $71.10/bbl on 07 Mar, before declining back to the $70/bbl level by 11 Mar. The May’25 contract has fluctuated with ongoing uncertainty around the impact of US tariffs and geopolitical risks, as we saw the US threaten to up sanctions on Iran and tensions rise in Russia-Ukraine peace talks this week. In line with this uncertainty, Onyx’s weekly CFTC COT predictor anticipates speculative players could be risk-off in Brent, but increase their short positions for the week ending 11 Mar. Managed-by-money long positions are expected to decline by 4.5mb, or about -1.7% w/w. Meanwhile, speculative players are expected to increase their short positions by 1.2mb (+1% w/w). Finally, prod/merc players are projected to add to both their long and short positions, by 29.8mb and 19.1mb, respectively.
