Update to ONYX Global Oil Balance: we implement minor upward revisions to non-OPEC demand estimates in 2025; global oil demand growth still remains at 1.3 mb/d y/y. Offsetting adjustments to non-OPEC total oil supply. Slightly higher OPEC crude oil supply due to the latest Petro-logistics SA data for December 2024 raising the baseline starting point. Global balance indicates an average implied global build in oil inventories in 2025 of 1.2 mb/d.
This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter. The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change. Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.
