Data Vault Reports
Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 20 Jan 2025
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 17 Jan, CTA buying flows accelerated as net positioning rose from 22k lots to 125k lots, reaching the highest level since the peak of 9 April 2024. This highlights the bullish momentum of the futures market, where the influx of CTAs exacerbated the rally in flat price as they deployed length en masse for the first time in nearly a year. Brent and WTI futures are the most bullish products, with net positioning both at 33k. This is followed by Heating Oil and Gasoil, at 30k and 26k, respectively. US Gasoline (RBOB) is the weakest at 4.5k, and has been the most bearish product since early December.
Refinery Margins Report
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 13 Jan 2025
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 10 Jan, total CTA net positioning climbed into positive levels for the first time since July 2024, although RBOB futures continue to be net short (despite rising 21% w/w to -11k lots). Brent and WTI futures witnessed a 314% and 1694% rise w/w to 8.3k lots and 11k lots, respectively. The middle distillates complex has seen exemplary changes this week, with gasoil and heating oil noting their net CTA length climb 357% and 208% w/w to 3.7k lots and 10.4k lots, respectively- with the latter perhaps also seeing support from the significant drop in temperatures in Eastern and Southern USA.
Onyx Global Oil Balance
Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.
This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.
The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.
Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.
Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Refinery Margins Report
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 06 Jan 2025
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 06 Jan saw an increase in net positioning with a rise in bullish sentiment. Net positioning for the total collection of futures climbed from -59k on 9 Dec, flipping positive to 5k by 06 Jan. We have seen that total net positioning has been increasing steadily since the start of December, recorded at -106k on 03 Dec. This week, we saw significant strength across the futures contracts, with WTI seeing a particularly high increase w/w from -10k to 5.6k while Brent followed close behind, increasing from -12k to 1.6k. RBOB futures remained the lowest on the positioning model, moving up from -24k on 31 Dec to -12k by 06 Jan.
Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Refinery Margins Report
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Bloomberg survey of crude oil price forecasts
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Global Oil Balance
Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.
This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.
The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.
Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.