Data Vault Reports
Onyx Global Oil Balance
Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.
This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.
The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.
Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.
Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 28 Apr 2025
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks in a timelier fashion relative to the official COT data. Over the past two weeks, net positions bottomed on 16 April at -145k lots, which was the lowest level since September 2024. Now, net positions are steadily increasing, rising to -93k lots by 28 April. RBOB is still the strongest underlying, at -3k lots, while Brent is the weakest, at -27k lots. Brent is quickly converging with WTI futures which is sitting at -26k lots.
Refinery Margins Report
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
ETFs Report
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 22 Apr 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Onyx Positioning Report – 22 Apr 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Bloomberg survey of crude oil price forecasts
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 15 Apr 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
